No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 27 13:00:02 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability remains a concern during the medium-range period. Models reveal notable differences even in the Day 4-5 time frame with respect to strength of the eastern U.S. upper trough, and associated evolution/development of the surface pattern. As the initial surface system moves offshore late in the Day 5 period (Tuesday morning), substantial divergence in solutions is evident with the next trough moving into/across the western CONUS. Given these differences, any severe potential beyond Day 5 cannot be quantified with any degree of confidence. With that said, a fairly widespread area of severe potential remains evident Day 4/Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving eastward across the Mississippi and Ohio and eventually the Tennessee Valleys. Northward advection of 60s dewpoints is expected ahead of this front, which will combine with daytime heating to boost mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, and potentially above 2000 J/kg farther southwestward along the front from East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the moistening/destabilizing pre-frontal boundary layer, development of strong/severe storms is expected near and ahead of the boundary during the afternoon -- potentially extending as far southwestward as East Texas. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, likelihood for supercell storms suggests potential for a few tornadoes as well. Risk will spread eastward through the evening across portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states overnight -- likely persisting through the end of the period. Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon, the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability remains a concern during the medium-range period. Models reveal notable differences even in the Day 4-5 time frame with respect to strength of the eastern U.S. upper trough, and associated evolution/development of the surface pattern. As the initial surface system moves offshore late in the Day 5 period (Tuesday morning), substantial divergence in solutions is evident with the next trough moving into/across the western CONUS. Given these differences, any severe potential beyond Day 5 cannot be quantified with any degree of confidence. With that said, a fairly widespread area of severe potential remains evident Day 4/Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving eastward across the Mississippi and Ohio and eventually the Tennessee Valleys. Northward advection of 60s dewpoints is expected ahead of this front, which will combine with daytime heating to boost mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, and potentially above 2000 J/kg farther southwestward along the front from East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the moistening/destabilizing pre-frontal boundary layer, development of strong/severe storms is expected near and ahead of the boundary during the afternoon -- potentially extending as far southwestward as East Texas. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds, likelihood for supercell storms suggests potential for a few tornadoes as well. Risk will spread eastward through the evening across portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states overnight -- likely persisting through the end of the period. Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon, the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms developing Saturday evening may pose local risk for hail and potentially strong wind gusts. ...portions of Oklahoma northeastward into Iowa/Illinois... Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the forecast for Saturday across the central U.S. -- with models exhibiting notable differences with respect to evolution of the surface pattern. Additionally, the NAM in particular maintains strong capping across the warm sector, which will likely hinder convective development for much of the period -- and potentially limiting convective to being primarily elevated/nocturnal. At this time, it appears that a corridor for initial storm development will be over the eastern Kansas vicinity, as a cold front moves across the area trailing from a frontal wave/low shifting eastward across roughly the Kansas City area during the evening. Convection may evolve mainly to the cool side of this boundary as a strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops, though a few at least nearly surface-based storms are expected. Though mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms to evolve -- aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Large hail will likely be the primary risk, though a strong gusty or two may also occur. Expect adjustments to the risk area and/or risk level, as greater certainty evolves with time in this complex scenario. ..Goss.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to move eastward over the central US as troughing intensifies over the West Coast. A weak trough will slide under the ridge supporting scattered storms over the Southwest and South TX. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a lee low, favoring gusty downslope winds over parts of the Plains. ...Southwest and southern Plains... A weak upper trough will continue to move eastward over the Southwest underneath the broader ridge over the central US. Moisture will continue to gradually move west into the higher terrain of the southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon. With low PWAT values (0.5-0.8 inches) these storms are likely to be high-based with minimal wetting rainfall. This will likely support dry lightning strikes within receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. To the east across parts of OK and KS, southerly 20-25 mph winds are likely for much of the afternoon. Warm temperatures and drier conditions ahead of the deeper moisture return will favor RH minimums of 20-25% by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ...Great Basin and central Rockies... A broad western US trough and enhanced mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Great basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Westerly surface winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin and into central/eastern WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests only portions of WY are of sufficient dryness to support fire-weather concerns. An Elevated area has been added to cover the risk of dry and windy downslope conditions. ...South FL... A few hours of lower RH and occasional gusty winds are possible across parts of the Southeast and into central and southern FL this afternoon. While winds are not expected to be overly strong, a few gusts may reach upwards of 15 mph through the day. Relatively warm and dry post-frontal conditions will overlap with areas of little recent rainfall and recent fire activity. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow. At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great Lakes through the end of the period. ...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and Louisiana... As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover. While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required. ...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes... Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low, most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front, with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow. At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great Lakes through the end of the period. ...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and Louisiana... As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover. While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required. ...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes... Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low, most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front, with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South Texas... Complex, slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico toward deep South TX by the end of the period. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of TX by early evening. LLJ will remain focused across south TX and multiple rounds of deep convection are expected during the day1 period. Adequately buoyant, and modestly steep lapse rate environment favors robust updrafts, as deep layer shear will support storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main threats with this activity, though a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit by the end of the period, though heights will remain neutral to slight rises. As a result, mid-level flow should back to a more westerly orientation with a few weak disturbances expected to translate across the northern Plains toward the mid/upper MS Valley. This flow regime will maintain a notable, but veered, LLJ from western KS into eastern IA through the period. Primary corridor of low-level warm advection will thus be oriented across the upper Red River region into the lower OH Valley. This corridor will likely experience multiple bouts of elevated convection, driven in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region and thermodynamic profiles will prove at least somewhat supportive of robust updrafts capable of generating hail at times. However, of potentially more concern will be convection that develops during the late afternoon along the eastern-most plume of steep low-level lapse rates, from northeast KS/southeast NE into southwest IA. Latest model guidance suggests inhibition will weaken such that isolated thunderstorms may try to initiate by 23-00z. Wind profiles favor organized updrafts and potential supercell development. However, additional thunderstorm activity should be noted downstream within the stronger warm advection corridor during the overnight hours, though updrafts will be elevated in nature. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South Texas... Complex, slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico toward deep South TX by the end of the period. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of TX by early evening. LLJ will remain focused across south TX and multiple rounds of deep convection are expected during the day1 period. Adequately buoyant, and modestly steep lapse rate environment favors robust updrafts, as deep layer shear will support storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main threats with this activity, though a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit by the end of the period, though heights will remain neutral to slight rises. As a result, mid-level flow should back to a more westerly orientation with a few weak disturbances expected to translate across the northern Plains toward the mid/upper MS Valley. This flow regime will maintain a notable, but veered, LLJ from western KS into eastern IA through the period. Primary corridor of low-level warm advection will thus be oriented across the upper Red River region into the lower OH Valley. This corridor will likely experience multiple bouts of elevated convection, driven in large part by the aforementioned LLJ. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region and thermodynamic profiles will prove at least somewhat supportive of robust updrafts capable of generating hail at times. However, of potentially more concern will be convection that develops during the late afternoon along the eastern-most plume of steep low-level lapse rates, from northeast KS/southeast NE into southwest IA. Latest model guidance suggests inhibition will weaken such that isolated thunderstorms may try to initiate by 23-00z. Wind profiles favor organized updrafts and potential supercell development. However, additional thunderstorm activity should be noted downstream within the stronger warm advection corridor during the overnight hours, though updrafts will be elevated in nature. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/27/2025 Read more

MD 0268 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 65... FOR PARTS OF NWRN WA
Mesoscale Discussion 0268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of nwrn WA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65... Valid 270335Z - 270500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65 continues. SUMMARY...Widespread convection and embedded weak thunderstorm activity lingers, but the potential for severe weather appears unlikely to increase. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65 may be allowed to expire at 9 PM PDT. DISCUSSION...Convective development, and embedded weak thunderstorm activity, persists along the western slopes of the Oregon Cascades. However, the primary cluster of thunderstorm activity is now rapidly spreading with the more favorable mid/upper forcing for ascent across and north-northwest of the Puget Sound vicinity. Locally strong surface gusts might still be possible, but thermodynamic profiles characterized by rather modest to weak mid/upper lapse rates, and more limited low-level moisture than some model guidance indicated, appear to have mitigated the severe weather threat. ..Kerr.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SEW... LAT...LON 48802319 48752155 47612133 47162195 47512281 48262387 48802319 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE AST TO 5 W SLE TO 45 ESE EUG. ..LYONS..03/27/25 ATTN...WFO...PQR...SEW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC005-009-027-043-047-051-067-071-270440- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLACKAMAS COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER LINN MARION MULTNOMAH WASHINGTON YAMHILL WAC011-015-033-041-053-059-067-270440- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COWLITZ KING LEWIS PIERCE SKAMANIA THURSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 65 SEVERE TSTM OR WA 262210Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 65 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Oregon Western Washington * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 900 PM PDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over parts of northwest Oregon and track north-northeastward across the watch area through early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Salem OR to 5 miles north northwest of Seattle WA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest this evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and severe wind gusts. ...01z Update... Deep convection has struggled to organize across western OR/WA early this evening, possibly due to extensive cloudiness. Even so, temperatures remain warm with readings in the mid 70s from Portland north into Lewis County WA. Westerly boundary-layer flow is increasing and upslope flow may be contributing to gradual uptick in convection from Clark County into central Lewis County WA. This activity is expected to grow upscale over the next few hours and wind profiles favor supercell development. If this occurs, storms will track north-northeast along the higher terrain, and large hail should develop within these storms. Latest trends suggest the greatest risk may be shifting into WA as large-scale forcing is beginning to shift into this region. Across the lower Rio Grande Valley, a lone supercell is tracking southeast along the international border over southern Starr County. Large hail has likely been noted with this storm, most likely along the Mexican side of the border. Some risk for hail will be noted with this storm for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 03/27/2025 Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/26/25 ATTN...WFO...PQR...SEW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC003-005-009-027-043-047-051-053-067-071-270040- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLACKAMAS COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER LINN MARION MULTNOMAH POLK WASHINGTON YAMHILL WAC011-015-033-041-053-059-067-270040- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COWLITZ KING LEWIS PIERCE SKAMANIA THURSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Portions of the southern High Plains will continue to see fire weather concerns heading into the late week and weekend period as a series of upper-level disturbances move across the region. Long-range guidance continues to show a transition to a more active/progressive upper-level regime heading into weekend, potentially persisting into the middle of next week. This regime change will feature increasing precipitation chances across much of the Intermountain West, Great Plains, and eastern U.S., but dry conditions are expected to persist across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. This will maintain antecedent dry fuels that will support a fire weather threat amid increasingly wind/dry conditions. ...D3/Friday into D5/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range solutions remain consistent in depicting a low-amplitude upper trough ejecting into the Southwest and southern High Plains during the D3/Friday to D4/Saturday period as long-wave troughing becomes established over the western CONUS. A westerly downslope flow regime is anticipated both days across NM into western TX as a surface low deepens over the High Plains and migrates eastward in tandem with the upper feature. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected both days with critical wind speeds most likely on D4/Saturday as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. The eastward extent of elevated/critical fire weather conditions remains uncertain and will be conditional on the eastward progression of the dryline by late afternoon. Similarly, rain chances across southwest TX over the next 24 hours may hinder fuel status to some degree, but ongoing drought conditions may allow for sufficient recovery of fine fuels by Saturday afternoon. A second low-amplitude wave will likely pass over the Southwest on D5/Sunday and will promote secondary lee cyclone development across northeast NM into western TX. While spread regarding the intensity and evolution of this secondary low remains somewhat high, ensemble support remains sufficiently high to maintain highlights. Long-range ECMWF deterministic solutions and ECENS guidance hints that additional fire weather concerns are possible by the middle of next week as a robust surface low deepens over the Plains. GFS/GEFS solutions show zonal flow to slight ridging over the CONUS during this period, which limits confidence in the long-range fire weather prospects. ...D3/Friday into D4/Saturday - Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region through the first half of the weekend. Strengthening gradient winds between an offshore surface high and an intensifying low over the Plains may result in periods of dry/windy conditions both D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. While confidence in critical conditions is too low for highlights, fire weather concerns may emerge given dry fuels and active fires across the region. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 26 20:58:02 UTC 2025.