SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A dampening shortwave trough will progress from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes. The trailing occluded/cold/quasi-stationary front arcing southwest, from the attendant surface low moving into southeast Canada, will serve as a focus for weak thunder activity. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit coverage, from the Lower OH Valley southwestward across the Lower MS to Sabine Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over far south FL by late afternoon into Sunday night as low-level moisture increases from the southeast. 10 percent thunder probabilities may reach coastal WA/OR by 12Z Monday as a northeast Pacific shortwave trough approaches. ...Coastal LA... 00Z ECMWF ensemble depicts increasing spread in the evolution of TC Rafael by early Sunday as the cyclone weakens. A small percentage support more of a northerly movement, similar to deterministic NCEP/CMC guidance. But the vast majority of the ECMWF ensemble members, along with the UKMET, support the favored NHC forecast. For now, TC-tornado potential appears likely to remain negligible. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ..Thornton.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Western Gulf Coast to Lower MO/OH Valleys... A vertically stacked cyclone will pivot northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest during the period. An occluded/cold front will initially arc southeast to south from the surface low. The trailing portion will slow and become nearly stationary from AR to the TX Gulf Coast by early Sunday. A warm front will attempt to advance north across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South by late afternoon Saturday. Rich low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front. But the belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone will remain displaced well north of the warm front. Poor mid-level lapse rates will greatly hamper warm-sector buoyancy. Much of the thunderstorm activity should remain elevated and driven by the warm conveyor in a weakly buoyant profile. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ...Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 Read more

WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE 6R6 TO 35 WSW ABI TO 30 N ABI. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 707 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08/05Z. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451- 080500- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 707 SEVERE TSTM TX 072320Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have formed early this evening along a boundary, and will move generally east-northeastward over the next several hours. Scattered large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter should be the main threat with this activity, although some severe wind gusts up to 60-70 mph may also occur. A tornado also appears possible with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Abilene TX to 80 miles south southwest of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0707 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BGS TO 35 WSW ABI TO 50 NNW ABI. ..THORNTON..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-081-083-095-105-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-451-080240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO CROCKETT IRION JONES RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise. Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high Plains, further aiding convection. 00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is expected from near the international border (DRT), across the Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue. ..Darrow.. 11/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 7 22:33:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 7 22:33:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A series of progressive mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS through this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, multiple instances of surface cyclone development are expected over the central U.S., supporting the southerly transport of low-level moisture and accumulating precipitation from the Plains states to the Appalachians. The progression of multiple mid-level troughs from the Pacific Ocean will also encourage meaningful precipitation accumulations over the Pacific Northwest. The net result will be overall quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A series of progressive mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS through this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, multiple instances of surface cyclone development are expected over the central U.S., supporting the southerly transport of low-level moisture and accumulating precipitation from the Plains states to the Appalachians. The progression of multiple mid-level troughs from the Pacific Ocean will also encourage meaningful precipitation accumulations over the Pacific Northwest. The net result will be overall quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20Z Update... Primary change to the outlook was to adjust tornado probabilities along the surface boundary in central Texas. Storm coverage still appears it will be isolated, but low-level shear would favor some tornado risk. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the general thunder area. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...West and Central TX... A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX. Current indications are that storms will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts, but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary, forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later today. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday. Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but organized severe storms are currently not expected. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday. Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but organized severe storms are currently not expected. ..Dean.. 11/07/2024 Read more

MD 2216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and northwestern Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071826Z - 071930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Risk for hail locally -- in the 1" to 1.75" range -- is expected to very gradually increase over the next few hours. WW issuance is not anticipated in the short term, though may be considered if storms increase more rapidly in coverage/intensity than currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop and mid-level height field indicates a well-defined low centered over Arizona. Downstream, across the southern High Plains, strong/diffluent flow is in place -- supporting a zone of favorable/enhanced low-level warm advection/southeasterly flow atop a relatively cool/stable boundary layer. Within this zone of favorable quasi-geostrophic ascent, a gradual ramp-up in storm coverage and intensity has been observed over the past hour or so, with a couple of strong cells now over the western North Texas/Big Country region. With ample elevated CAPE indicated (averaging 750 to 1250 J/kg), and veering/increasing flow through the cloud-bearing layer, organized storms -- a few with mid-level rotation -- are suggested by this background environment. While the overall risk does not warrant serious WW consideration at this time, we will continue to closely monitor what should be a gradual ramp-up in storm coverage over the next several hours. ..Goss/Hart.. 11/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34820163 35110071 34849973 34049805 33269747 32059723 31269770 31029929 31180019 32390054 34820163 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight expansions made to the Elevated area to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 11/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough tracking eastward across the Northeast, strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. In the vicinity of a related cold front, boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 30 percent RH during the afternoon. Winds will shift to a northerly direction behind the cold front into the evening/overnight hours, with increasing RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more