WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-290040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-290040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-290040- CW Read more

MD 0277 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 66... FOR EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 66... Valid 282231Z - 290030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will likely continue for another hour or two. After the 00Z expiration of WW 66, a lingering severe threat will be possible, which could necessitate a local weather watch extension. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level trough over the central Texas, with several vorticity maxima located from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity maxima will continue to support scattered thunderstorm development across the Sabine River Valley early this evening. The RAP is analyzing an axis of instability over far east Texas where SBCAPE is estimated around 1000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is showing a low to mid-level jet over western and central Louisiana. This feature appears to be sampled by the Lake Charles and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs which have 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This environment should support an isolated tornado threat with supercells over the next one to two hours. Any supercell could also be capable of producing isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30119472 29959432 29989359 30189326 30549308 31759315 32569330 32899350 32959393 32789427 32389451 31779469 31009480 30429484 30119472 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota and northern/central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282323Z - 290200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and IR satellite imagery show a gradual increase in ascent along/immediately north of a warm front draped across portions of central WI -- ahead of a weak surface low over southeast MN. This is associated with gradually strengthening warm advection in the vicinity of a coupled upper-level jet structure. A steep midlevel lapse rate plume extending eastward into the area (see earlier 12Z upstream soundings) is contributing to around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, which may increase to around 1500 J/kg as ascent moistens the base of the EML. This instability and around 40-50 kt of cloud-layer shear (per regional VWP data) may promote a couple loosely organized supercell structures capable of producing hail to around 1 inch in diameter. While the majority of this activity is expected to remain elevated, a couple ongoing cells in southeast MN into west-central WI are evolving within or slightly on the warm side of the baroclinic zone. Even so, isolated severe hail should still be the primary hazard. The severe-hail risk should generally persist through around 03Z, before cellular convection is expected to diminish amid weakening instability/midlevel lapse rates. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44018942 43939152 43919237 43989285 44499320 44919312 45349273 45549210 45589125 45368815 44958768 44458783 44098819 44018942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 66 TORNADO LA TX CW 281725Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 66 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Louisiana Southeast and East Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify into the afternoon as a moist and destabilizing airmass becomes more favorable for supercell development with the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms through the late afternoon and into the early evening before this activity diminishes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Natchitoches LA to 10 miles east southeast of Port Arthur TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z An active fire weather pattern is in store for the southern High Plains through at least the middle of next week. A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the central CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the Plains states on multiple days. Dry downslope flow is expected each day across the southern High Plains for Days 3-6 (Sunday-Wednesday), with 40% Critical probabilities introduced. The best chance for surface winds sustained at 20-30 mph amid 10-15 percent RH will be on Days 5-6 (Tuesday-Wednesday), when an intense mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains amid rapid and pronounced surface cyclone development. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts modest surface lee-troughing along the southern High Plains, where dry conditions should persist. However, questions about the strength of the surface wind field Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday afternoon) preclude Critical probabilities across the southern High Plains this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0276 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 66... FOR PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 66... Valid 282027Z - 282200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging gusts may persist through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...One small but long-lived supercell has shown signs of weakening to the southeast of Shreveport, with other transient supercells noted from east TX into far western LA over the last 1-2 hours. While most of these cells have apparently remained sub-severe thus far, the KSHV/KPOE/KLCH VWPs continue to depict rather strong southerly low-level flow and modestly favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH for at least a low probability tornado/wind threat. However, generally weak midlevel lapse rates and only relatively modest deep-layer shear could continue to limit storm organization to some extent. A tornado or two and/or localized damaging gusts remain possible with the ongoing storm cluster near the Sabine River through the remainder of the afternoon, and some threat could extend just north of WW 66. Farther southwest, some increase in low-level flow has been noted on the KHGX VWP, and deep convection continues to increase immediately in advance of a midlevel vorticity maximum approaching east-central TX. A modest increase in storm organization across this area could result in a threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado in and near the southwestern portion of WW 66 through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29959320 29679352 29429455 28799549 29409535 29619534 29869552 30419509 31179471 31919466 32489445 33049429 32949334 32479323 32049313 31539302 30999292 30509303 29959320 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-019-023-031-069-081-085-115-282140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON TXC005-199-241-245-291-347-351-361-373-403-405-419-457-282140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER GMZ430-432-282140- CW Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A somewhat broad upper-level trough with nebulous structure will move from the Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough will amplify within the broader trough. A surface low will move from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will move southeastward into areas east of the Mississippi while dryline will be present in East Texas. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Models indicate some potential for early morning thunderstorm activity. This activity will likely be tied to the surface low/low-level warm advection. Some severe risk may accompany these storms. The question then becomes how this activity will impact destabilization across parts of Illinois into Indiana/western Ohio. Wind fields will still support supercells capable of all hazards, but the overall magnitude of these threats will depend on the degree of surface heating that occurs. Much of the Ohio Valley vicinity itself appears that it will not be impacted directly by early morning convection. This will be a zone where a favorable overlap of surface heating and stronger low-level wind fields will exist. Though the cold front will be the initiating boundary, effective shear vectors are expected to be orthogonal to it. This should increase the potential for discrete storms and strong tornadoes in addition to large hail and severe gusts. ...Mid-South... Ahead of the southeastward moving cold front, dewpoints are expected to rise to the mid to potentially the upper 60s (the NAM being typically more aggressive in this regard). Given the presence of an elevated mixed layer, this region is expected to have little to no thunderstorms expected during the morning/early afternoon. Surface heating and increasing mid-level ascent should eventually erode the cap and allow storms to develop by mid/late afternoon. There is some indication that a pre-frontal trough/confluence zone may set up. Should this occur, the potential for discrete storms would increase along with the potential for a more concerning tornado risk. Low-level wind fields will likely be somewhat weaker in these areas given the southward displacement from the surface low. However, forecast soundings suggest low-level hodograph curvature will be more than sufficient, particularly beyond early evening. Even without pre-frontal discrete development, the greater surface heating expected in this region should allow for widespread severe storms along the cold front with a threat for large hail, widespread damaging winds, and QLCS tornadoes. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A dryline feature will serve as the focus for convection. Storms in this area would more than likely be discrete. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear should promote supercells capable of large/very-large hail as well as severe gusts and tornadoes. Later in the period, the cold front will surge south and lead to upscale growth of what activity is ongoing at that time. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE. Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast). Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A severe storms threat will continue across coastal Texas into Louisiana this afternoon, with primary risks including a tornado or two and damaging wind. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was added across portions of far southeastern Texas into western/central Louisiana with this update. Through the morning/afternoon, supercell development has been ongoing with rotation observed on radar. The environment across this region is characterized by strong low-level shear, which is evident in enlarged low level hodographs on VAD profiles from LCH and POE. Daytime heating has led to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg across the region with dew points in the mid to upper 60s (some 70s along the coast). Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon as upper level forcing increases with a vort max currently upstream across southern Texas, with potential for more supercells and a tornado or two. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk across Nebraska into the Upper Midwest remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track, with the primary change made to the updated Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook being an expansion of Critical highlights further northeast into eastern New Mexico, and east into western Texas. In these areas, guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for several hours Saturday afternoon. Some guidance members are also hinting at dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Mid Atlantic. However, preceding rainfall may dampen fuels in these areas, so additional assessments will need to be made on rain impacts to available fuels before Elevated highlights may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the Rockies and Plains will be somewhat disorganized. However, two low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to eject into the Plains during the period. At the surface, an initial surface cyclone in western Kansas will evolve into two distinct lows as the two shortwave troughs eject in succession. One low will move through the lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys while the other will shift through western/central Oklahoma before weakening by Sunday morning. ...Eastern Kansas/western/central Missouri/northern Oklahoma... Dewpoints should increase ahead of the dryline/cold front during the day. Most model guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F will be possible. Confidence in storm development is highest in these areas. Forcing for ascent from the secondary shortwave trough, surface low/dryline, and the cold front should promote widely scattered to scattered storms initially from north-central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas. Effective shear will be strong enough for supercells. Near the triple point into southeast Kansas, supercell structures have potential to last longer into the evening given the more orthogonal shear vector orientation to the dryline. From the Flint Hills into northeast Kansas, supercells would likely persist for a short period. Very-large hail is possible with any supercell, but will become less likely with time as storms will tend to congeal along the cold front in eastern Kansas. Given that the boundary layer will be rather well-mixed and the low-level jet will increase during the evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters seems probable. Large to very-large hail will be the primary threat. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The primary area of greater tornado risk, conditional on supercell storm mode, will likely be from northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas where low-level hodographs will be more favorably curved/enlarged. There is some question how far east strong/severe storms will persist into Missouri. The current Slight risk has been maintained as is, but model trends will continue to be monitored. ...Central/western Oklahoma into Central Texas... In Oklahoma, capping from an elevated mixed layer should suppress convection along the dryline through the afternoon. With 850-700 mb winds generally veered in the vicinity of the dryline, it becomes rather uncertain if convection will be able to initiate given parcels short residence time in the narrow zone of ascent. Furthermore, mid-level ascent will not arrive until after sunset. Models continue to show a very weak signal for any development as a result. Should a storm or two manage to develop, the environment will be conditionally favorable for supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado. Farther south into Texas, a similarly capped environment will exist. Stronger heating may lead to a few convection initiation attempts along the dryline (a scenario hinted at by the ECMWF/GFS as well as some CAMS). Additional potential will exist in far southern Oklahoma/North Texas near a triple point feature along with a strengthening low-level jet core. Isolated large to very-large hail and severe gusts would be the primary threats with this activity, should it develop. ...Lower Missouri into mid-Mississippi Valley... The lead shortwave will promote a surface low to deepen in the Kansas City vicinity and track roughly north-northeastward through the evening. A few, likely elevated, storms could produce large hail given the steep lapse rates aloft. An isolated strong/damaging gust is also possible but should be spatially limited and conditional on a more organized cluster developing. The northern and eastern extent of the threat are the most uncertain for these region. ..Wendt.. 03/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 28 17:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281546Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into this afternoon, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. DISCUSSION...Several northward moving cells/clusters are ongoing across east TX late this morning, to the east of a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across south TX. Area VWPs depict rather strong southerly low-level flow, with some low-level hodograph curvature implied where surface winds remain backed out of the southeast. MLCAPE may gradually increase near/above 500 J/kg into late morning and this afternoon, with continued storm development possible within the moist and uncapped environment. While deep-layer shear will remain relatively modest, effective SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 will support occasional storm organization. Given the relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH and rich boundary-layer moisture, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells, while locally damaging gusts will be possible with any stronger cells/clusters. Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term due to the isolated nature of the threat, but trends will be monitored for the potential of stronger diurnal heating/destabilization and a locally greater threat into the afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335 31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281707Z - 281830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small supercell has evolved late this morning across Newton County, TX, with additional redevelopment noted to the east/northeast of Houston. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s F across western LA, and similar warming will be possible this afternoon across southeast TX outside of ongoing convective development. This warming will allow MLCAPE to approach 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, low-level flow remains rather strong on area VWPs, with backed surface winds supporting 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. With continued destabilization, the favorable low-level SRH will support some increase in the tornado threat into the afternoon, both with the ongoing supercell, and with additional supercellular development that may evolve out of ongoing convection across southeast TX. Given the potential for a couple tornadoes within a focused mesoscale corridor, Tornado Watch issuance is possible early this afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29739412 29959478 31329484 32049436 32289361 32179312 31799290 31129297 30189296 29879309 29799370 29739412 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to the lee of the central Appalachians. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended slightly stronger with surface flow, where southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph in spots amid 20-35 percent RH. Current observations show mostly clear skies, with RH already dropping to 30 percent amid 20 mph gusts in spots, and these conditions should only be exacerbated with continued diurnal heating. Given the presence of abnormally dry/receptive fuels, the addition of Elevated highlights appears warranted. Elevated highlights were also expanded slightly eastward into the southern High Plains, where the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast for the southern High Plains, central Plains, and Florida (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to add Elevated highlights to the lee of the central Appalachians. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended slightly stronger with surface flow, where southwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph in spots amid 20-35 percent RH. Current observations show mostly clear skies, with RH already dropping to 30 percent amid 20 mph gusts in spots, and these conditions should only be exacerbated with continued diurnal heating. Given the presence of abnormally dry/receptive fuels, the addition of Elevated highlights appears warranted. Elevated highlights were also expanded slightly eastward into the southern High Plains, where the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the previous forecast for the southern High Plains, central Plains, and Florida (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/28/2025 Read more