SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening, and far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... An upper trough over the western states will pivot eastward today while gradually acquiring a negative tilt over the northern/central Plains by late tonight. At the surface, a front extending over the Dakotas should stall in a nearly north-south orientation later today. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward this afternoon ahead of the primary surface low, which is forecast to consolidate over western KS/southwest NE by early evening. A dryline will extend southward from this low over much of the central/southern Plains, but strong capping should generally limit convective development with southward extent through much of the day. Daytime heating of the modestly moist low-level airmass, combined with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates, will encourage around 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Stronger instability will likely exist with southward extent into NE, where slightly greater low-level moisture should be present. Mainly unidirectional/ southerly wind profiles along/near the front this afternoon suggest that initial convective development will be messy, with numerous updraft and outflow interactions. Still, the strongest of these initial cores should pose some risk for hail and wind gusts. Initially high-based convection is also forecast to develop across the central High Plains (northeast CO vicinity) by late afternoon/early evening, and spread northeastward across NE. A greater threat for sustained supercells remains apparent with southward extent across NE this evening, where stronger deep-layer shear somewhat more orthogonal to the surface boundaries should be present. Isolated very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) will be possible with any discrete cells, while severe wind gusts should become an increasing concern as convection grows upscale into a bowing cluster through the evening and early overnight hours. There should also be a narrow spatial/temporal window for a couple of tornadoes this evening across parts of NE as a low-level jet modestly strengthens and 0-1 km SRH increases. ...Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley... A weak mid/upper trough will drift eastward today from the Appalachians towards the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level winds and related effective bulk shear are expected to remain rather weak, some clustering/modest organization may occur with convection that will further develop this afternoon across NC into parts of southern VA. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with continued diurnal heating. But, some hail may also occur. See Mesoscale Discussion 776 for more details on the short-term severe threat across this area. Across parts of the OH Valley, mainly elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening/overnight in a low-level warm advection regime. Sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear is forecast to support an isolated threat for mainly large hail with this activity. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 05/14/2025 Read more

MD 0776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern NC into far southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141538Z - 141815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon with scattered, largely disorganized thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway along the coastal sea breeze in southern NC and ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in north-central NC. Additional storms are expected to form trailing south and east-northeast of the impulse as it progresses east this afternoon. Robust insolation across a decent swath of eastern NC has yielded surface temperatures running at least a few degrees above guidance, and will likely support moderate buoyancy in the next couple hours with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg. Despite the presence of the mid-level trough, weak lapse rates above the boundary layer will temper updraft intensity. The primary limiting factor will be weak deep-layer shear given close proximity to the mid-level trough and the belt of moderate westerlies relegated to its southwest quadrant. This suggests convection will predominately have pulse cell character, although loosely organized multicells may develop later in the afternoon into eastern NC and far southeast VA. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... LAT...LON 36127970 36447927 36757816 36987745 37037706 37047660 36957634 36767624 36227661 35467725 34867756 33947779 33867837 33927863 34337888 34677989 34988001 35687946 36127970 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening, and far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains... Surface low pressure will deepen in the vicinity of the CO/KS/NE border today in response to the approach of an upper-level trough, as an associated surface cold front moves slowly east across the central/northern Plains. Low-level moisture advection and steep mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) will result in MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg across central NE, with weaker instability northward across the central Dakotas. Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon near the front across the Dakotas and central/northern NE, with severe hail and wind the primary risks. Damaging winds will become more likely as one or two clusters ultimately evolve over central/northern NE and move towards southeast SD/southwest MN and far northwest IA during the late evening and overnight. Across southwest/central NE, more discrete supercell structures will be possible with storms developing closer to the surface low/dryline intersection, with large to very large hail possible. A 5 percent tornado probability has been introduced across portions of central NE, where a short-duration window may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with any semi-discrete storm or small cluster in the presence of increasing low-level shear. Expected upscale growth should limit the time frame for supercell tornado potential. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some storm organization including potential for transient supercell structures. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Bunting/Dean.. 05/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of severe weather remains likely through the weekend and into early next week for portions of the central CONUS. A weakening upper trough is forecast to migrate across the Northeast late this weekend as a second upper wave begins to amplify over the western states. This upper regime will favor surface pressure falls across the High Plains that will promote south/southeasterly return flow into the southern/central Plains through early next week. Severe thunderstorm chances will increase as preceding upper disturbances and the primary upper wave eject into the Plains over the warm sector. While severe weather chances are anticipated most days through the extended period, confidence in more focused, synoptically-driven corridors is currently greatest on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday across the southern Plains. ...D5/Sunday to D6/Monday... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains beginning D4/Saturday through D7/Monday. This will foster moisture return into northern TX, OK, and southern KS as a warm front lifts north. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s are likely by Sunday afternoon across the southern High Plains to the east of a sharpening dryline. Recent GFS/GEFS solutions have come into better alignment with ECMWF/EPS runs that depict a leading impulse within the subtropical jet overspreading the southern High Plains late Sunday afternoon. Enhanced westerly low- to mid-level flow coupled with ascent associated with the upper feature should promote eastward mixing of the dryline with attendant chances for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment. The ejection of the primary trough axis on D6/Monday should result in more widespread 50+ knot mid-level flow overspreading much of OK/KS. The eastward migration of the surface low and trailing dryline through the day should provide adequate forcing for ascent for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment, which should promote an organized, and potentially more widespread, severe threat. More specific mesoscale details for both days remain unclear at this range, but the general alignment of global deterministic/ensemble guidance regarding the overall synoptic regime and convective environment, combined with a consistent QPF signal on both days, suggests predictability is high enough to introduce risk probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... A residual cold front associated with a weakening surface low over the northern CONUS is expected to be draped from the southern Appalachians southwestward into the mid-MS Valley/Ozark Plateau region. Sufficient buoyancy and strong zonal flow aloft will likely support organized convection along the frontal zone. While some severe threat is anticipated, mid-level ridging and lingering convection at the start of the day limit confidence/predictability in where the better mesoscale corridors for severe convection will become established. ...D7/Tuesday... Some severe threat is expected to persist into Tuesday as a surface low and attendant trough/dryline migrate east towards the Midwest. Ensemble guidance hints at strong/severe thunderstorm potential across parts of AR, MO, and the lower OH Valley, but spread among deterministic solutions and the potential for lingering convection from D6/Monday limits confidence at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of severe weather remains likely through the weekend and into early next week for portions of the central CONUS. A weakening upper trough is forecast to migrate across the Northeast late this weekend as a second upper wave begins to amplify over the western states. This upper regime will favor surface pressure falls across the High Plains that will promote south/southeasterly return flow into the southern/central Plains through early next week. Severe thunderstorm chances will increase as preceding upper disturbances and the primary upper wave eject into the Plains over the warm sector. While severe weather chances are anticipated most days through the extended period, confidence in more focused, synoptically-driven corridors is currently greatest on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday across the southern Plains. ...D5/Sunday to D6/Monday... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft over the southern/central Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains beginning D4/Saturday through D7/Monday. This will foster moisture return into northern TX, OK, and southern KS as a warm front lifts north. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s are likely by Sunday afternoon across the southern High Plains to the east of a sharpening dryline. Recent GFS/GEFS solutions have come into better alignment with ECMWF/EPS runs that depict a leading impulse within the subtropical jet overspreading the southern High Plains late Sunday afternoon. Enhanced westerly low- to mid-level flow coupled with ascent associated with the upper feature should promote eastward mixing of the dryline with attendant chances for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment. The ejection of the primary trough axis on D6/Monday should result in more widespread 50+ knot mid-level flow overspreading much of OK/KS. The eastward migration of the surface low and trailing dryline through the day should provide adequate forcing for ascent for thunderstorm development within a buoyant and strongly sheared environment, which should promote an organized, and potentially more widespread, severe threat. More specific mesoscale details for both days remain unclear at this range, but the general alignment of global deterministic/ensemble guidance regarding the overall synoptic regime and convective environment, combined with a consistent QPF signal on both days, suggests predictability is high enough to introduce risk probabilities. ...D4/Saturday... A residual cold front associated with a weakening surface low over the northern CONUS is expected to be draped from the southern Appalachians southwestward into the mid-MS Valley/Ozark Plateau region. Sufficient buoyancy and strong zonal flow aloft will likely support organized convection along the frontal zone. While some severe threat is anticipated, mid-level ridging and lingering convection at the start of the day limit confidence/predictability in where the better mesoscale corridors for severe convection will become established. ...D7/Tuesday... Some severe threat is expected to persist into Tuesday as a surface low and attendant trough/dryline migrate east towards the Midwest. Ensemble guidance hints at strong/severe thunderstorm potential across parts of AR, MO, and the lower OH Valley, but spread among deterministic solutions and the potential for lingering convection from D6/Monday limits confidence at this range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening with more isolated severe thunderstorms extending southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A residual cold front associated with an occluding surface low over the upper MS Valley is expected to stall across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH Valley region by around 12 UTC Friday. This boundary is expected to lift northward through the day as an effective warm front amid a persistent southerly low-level flow regime. Aloft, a low-amplitude perturbation is expected to emanate out of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Westerly mid-level flow associated with this wave will help mix a diffuse surface trough/dryline across the eastern Plains through the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the lifting warm front and possibly off the trough/dryline by late afternoon as lift associated with the mid-level wave impinges on the warm sector. ...Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley... The general consensus among medium and long-range guidance is that thunderstorms developing along the warm front and/or surface trough ahead of the mid-level wave will mature in an environment characterized by MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values on the order of 40-50 knots. These thermodynamic/kinematic conditions will be very favorable for long-lived organized convection. However, disagreement among solutions persists regarding the northward extent of the warm sector by peak heating. Recent ECMWF/EPS runs hint at greater coverage of ongoing showers/thunderstorms by 12 UTC Friday that will likely inhibit northward advancement of the warm front. Conversely, NAM/GFS/GEFS all depict less early-morning convection and thus lift the boundary well north into southern IL/IN/OH with a more expansive warm sector. As such, the envelope of potential outcomes remains somewhat broad. Regardless, some combination of scattered supercells and organized clusters, including the potential for a long-lived MCS as hinted by some deterministic solutions, appears likely somewhere across the Ozarks/OH Valley region Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest Arkansas into northeast Texas... Thunderstorm initiation along a sharpening dryline appears probable Friday afternoon/evening from southwest AR into northeast TX based on recent ensemble QPF signals. While displaced from the stronger mid-level flow and forcing for ascent to the north, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear should be in place to support isolated supercells across the region with an attendant hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening with more isolated severe thunderstorms extending southwestward into northeast Texas. ...Synopsis... A residual cold front associated with an occluding surface low over the upper MS Valley is expected to stall across the Ozark Plateau into the lower OH Valley region by around 12 UTC Friday. This boundary is expected to lift northward through the day as an effective warm front amid a persistent southerly low-level flow regime. Aloft, a low-amplitude perturbation is expected to emanate out of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Westerly mid-level flow associated with this wave will help mix a diffuse surface trough/dryline across the eastern Plains through the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the lifting warm front and possibly off the trough/dryline by late afternoon as lift associated with the mid-level wave impinges on the warm sector. ...Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley... The general consensus among medium and long-range guidance is that thunderstorms developing along the warm front and/or surface trough ahead of the mid-level wave will mature in an environment characterized by MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values on the order of 40-50 knots. These thermodynamic/kinematic conditions will be very favorable for long-lived organized convection. However, disagreement among solutions persists regarding the northward extent of the warm sector by peak heating. Recent ECMWF/EPS runs hint at greater coverage of ongoing showers/thunderstorms by 12 UTC Friday that will likely inhibit northward advancement of the warm front. Conversely, NAM/GFS/GEFS all depict less early-morning convection and thus lift the boundary well north into southern IL/IN/OH with a more expansive warm sector. As such, the envelope of potential outcomes remains somewhat broad. Regardless, some combination of scattered supercells and organized clusters, including the potential for a long-lived MCS as hinted by some deterministic solutions, appears likely somewhere across the Ozarks/OH Valley region Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest Arkansas into northeast Texas... Thunderstorm initiation along a sharpening dryline appears probable Friday afternoon/evening from southwest AR into northeast TX based on recent ensemble QPF signals. While displaced from the stronger mid-level flow and forcing for ascent to the north, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear should be in place to support isolated supercells across the region with an attendant hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will eject quickly eastward spreading strong mid-level flow atop the central Plains. A powerful lee cyclone will intensify further as it move into the Upper Midwest. A cold front and tailing dryline may support precipitation across parts of the Plains and Midwest States. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions behind these features will favor some fire-weather risk. ...Southwest... Persistent westerly flow will continue across the Southwest Thursday. This will support another day of dry and windy conditions across parts of eastern AZ and southern NM. RH below 20% and winds of 15-20% amidst dry fuels will support widespread elevated to locally critical conditions. Some fire-weather risk may also extend into West TX behind an eastward mixing dryline. However, winds here may be somewhat weaker despite very warm surface temperatures and lower humidity. Locally elevated conditions are possible within drying fuels. ...Central Plains... As the strong surface low continues to deepen and shift eastward over the northern Plains and Midwest, a cold front will approach the central Plains Thursday/Thursday night. This could support some dry and breezy conditions behind the front within receptive fuels. Westerly gusts of 15-20 mph and RH below 25% could support elevated fire-weather conditions. However, some potential for rainfall in the preceding days may temporarily limit fuels. The relatively confined area and uncertainties on precipitation will preclude any highlights for now. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AZ AND SOUTHERN NM... ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward over the central US. A lee low and dryline will strengthen over the Plains, supporting dry and breezy conditions over much of the western and central CONUS. While strong southerly winds are also possible ahead of the deepening surface low, returning surface moisture and precipitation chances are also expected, complicating some fire-weather potential. Critical fire-weather conditions appear most likely over parts of the Southwest. ...Southwest... Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the ejecting upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph across parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. A very dry surface pattern is expected to continue with above normal temperatures and little recent rainfall. This should support widespread RH below 15%. With sufficient fuels in place, and additional drying expected, several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over southeastern AZ into southern NM and west TX. ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong lee low with a trailing dryline will gradually deepen as the upper trough begins to move over the Plains. Dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest behind the strengthening dryline. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas and western MN. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given past rainfall and additional rain through the period. Increasing surface moisture may also limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes region Thursday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe thunderstorms are expected through the lower Ohio River Valley, Ozarks Plateau, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies is forecast to eject into the upper MS River Valley over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, a Pacific cold front will rapidly push east into the MS Valley and Midwest as an intense surface cyclone begins to occlude over the eastern Dakotas/western MN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front by early-afternoon with increasing coverage across the upper MS Valley through early evening. Increasingly sparse, but severe, thunderstorms are anticipated along the front across the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Ozarks/Texarkana regions through the evening and overnight hours. ...Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes... 04 UTC surface observations show upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints already spreading northwest into the upper MS Valley as a surface low begins to organized across the northern Plains. Confidence remains high that dewpoints in the mid 60s should overspread much of the region by mid-day Thursday and will contribute to regional MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. Strong forcing for ascent along the approaching front and within the left-exit region of a 50-60 knot mid-level jet will erode capping at the base of a stout EML and promote thunderstorm development by early afternoon across parts of central to southern MN. Elongated hodographs with cross-boundary mean winds will promote organized, initially discrete/semi-discrete cells with an attendant severe wind and hail (potentially as large as 2 inches) threat. Veering winds through the lowest 2 km will also support a tornado threat with early convection. With time, persistent strong forcing along the front should promote some degree of upscale growth/clustering, though supercells will remain likely on the southern fringe of the line where capping will remain stronger and favor more isolated convection. The potential for somewhat longer-lived supercells may be maximized across southeast WI into adjacent portions of IL, northern IN, and southwest lower MI. Forecast soundings depict ESRH values on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, suggesting a significant tornado threat could materialize. Confidence in the coverage of such cells remains limited, but trends will be monitored for the need for increased tornado risk probabilities. ...Midwest and Ohio Valley... Forecast guidance continues to show the best moisture return across parts of IL, IN, and northern KY by Thursday afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s under nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, capping at the base of the EML is expected to limit storm coverage across this region. Recent guidance has trended towards perhaps a slightly increased coverage of thunderstorms compared to previous runs, but the overall consensus among deterministic and CAM ensemble guidance is that storm coverage should be sparse. Nonetheless, effective bulk shear values on the order of 40-50 knots will promote supercells during the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards possible, including the potential for significant hail/tornadoes. Consideration was given for an expansion of the Enhanced risk area, but limited confidence in convective coverage precluded such expansion. ...Texarkana to the Ozark Plateau... Weaker forcing along the front and strong capping will likely limit thunderstorm coverage from the Texarkana region into the Ozark Plateau during the afternoon/evening. Heading into the overnight hours, increasing low-level isentropic ascent over the frontal boundary will support thunderstorm development - especially across the Ozarks into the mid-MS Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will promote initial supercells, but storm propagation along the front will likely promote clustering with time. Nonetheless, a severe hail/wind threat will likely materialize within this corridor. ...Mid-Atlantic... A moist, weakly capped air mass is expected to remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. While lapse rates will be modest after several days of convective overturning, temperatures warming into the upper 70s/low 80s will promote sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm development. Upper ridging moving into the region will likely limit thunderstorm coverage, but convection developing along the Blue Ridge Mountains will mature in an environment with increasing deep-layer shear. A few organized cells appear possible with an attendant severe hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening, and perhaps into far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level jet will eject into the central Plains on Wednesday with a deepening surface low moving north through the central Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level shortwave trough will advance east from the southern Appalachians to the western Atlantic by the end of the period. ...Northern/Central Plains... Low-level moisture is in place across the Plains this morning with upper 50/low 60s dewpoints in Kansas and mid 60s dewpoints across Oklahoma. However, this moisture is very shallow with a mean mixing ratio around 11 g/kg from the OUN, LMN, and FWD 00Z RAOBs. Therefore, expect this moisture to advect northward through the day given the strengthening southerly flow associated with the deepening cyclone. However, dewpoints across Nebraska and into the Dakotas will likely remain in the upper 50s to low 60s given the upstream moisture quality. Nonetheless, this will be sufficient for MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg near the NE/KS border with weaker instability farther north. Expect storm development in the vicinity of the surface low Wednesday afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized. Storms may quickly develop along the frontal zone from north-central Nebraska and into the Dakotas. These storms will pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional development is possible along the dryline/triple point across southwest Nebraska. These storms may have the best potential to be discrete longer and should be supercellular given 30 to 35 knots of shear in the region. This will also be the region with the greatest 2+ inch hail potential given the strong instability, moderate shear, and steep lapse rates. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z as the low-level jet strengthens. However, by this time, expect inhibition to increase substantially across the central Plains with storm mode becoming more linear across northern Nebraska and into eastern South Dakota which should limit the overall tornado threat. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic... Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern Appalachians to the Carolinas on Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave trough overspreads the region, expect scattered thunderstorm development. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization including potential for transient supercell structures. In addition, modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are apparent. This should support the potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail is expected to be the primary threat across the region, but coverage is not expected to be high enough to support a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AN EASTERN VIRGINIA AND FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia and northern High Plains. ...Discussion... The thunderstorms have ended across the marginal in Mississippi and Alabama and additional development is not anticipated given waning daylight and a cooling boundary layer. A few strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. This threat should remain for a few more hours before ending later this evening. A moist, unstable environment remains along the North Carolina coast this evening with a threat for a stronger storm or two into the overnight period. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states tonight. A surface cold front has stalled across central North Dakota and western South Dakota this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may occur west of this boundary tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. ..Bentley.. 05/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue May 13 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 13 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z An upper-level trough will translate northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Day 4/Friday with lingering dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest. This will also bring much needed rainfall to portions of the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Another period of dry/windy conditions is forecast as an upper-trough enters the western U.S. by the weekend (Day 5-7/Saturday-Sunday), bringing more fire weather concerns to portions of the Southwest and then the southern high Plains. ...Southwest... A persistent fire weather threat will continue for portions of Southwest. Southeastern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico will be the threat focal point where fuels have been more receptive to fire spread. Fuels should remain available with no appreciable rainfall across the Southwest through Day 5/Friday before the next upper-trough arrives for the weekend. A 40 percent area was maintained across southwestern New Mexico for Day 3/Thursday. Some forecast uncertainty persists with the timing of the next upper-trough and arrival of enhanced mid-level flow, precluding addition of Critical probabilities for the weekend time frame for now. It does appear some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible from southern New Mexico into the southern high Plains. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight across parts of North Carolina, the Mid-Atlantic, central Gulf Coast states, and northern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... No change is made to the outlook for this issuance. ..Broyles.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...North Carolina into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to slowly meander from the TN Valley towards the central Appalachians through the period. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northward across the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Stronger low/mid-level flow will tend to remain across the eastern Carolinas into southern VA today, with generally weaker winds aloft in closer proximity to the mid/upper low. A moist low-level airmass will remain in place over much of the Carolinas, central Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. But, poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit any more than weak instability from developing through this afternoon. Deep-layer shear away from the coast will also tend to remain muted, which should keep overall thunderstorm organization modest. Even with these forecast thermodynamic and kinematic limitations, some organization may occur with thunderstorms that develop and spread northward this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main threat with any loosely organized clusters that can form, but marginally severe hail could also occur with the strongest cores. A tornado or two also appears possible along a pseudo-warm front across northeast NC into southeast VA and vicinity, where low-level flow and shear are forecast to be modestly enhanced compared to locations farther west. ...Mississippi/Alabama... Morning showers and related cloudiness will temper diurnal destabilization to some extent across northern MS/AL this afternoon. But, renewed thunderstorm development still appears possible later today across this region, on the southern fringe of the slowly moving mid/upper low. Weak low-level westerly winds are expected to veer to northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height though mid levels. Related 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell with an associated hail/wind threat. The overall severe risk should remain quite isolated, which warrants maintaining the Marginal Risk with this update. ...Northern Plains... An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward over the western states through tonight. A surface cold front is forecast to decelerate and eventually stall over parts of the Dakotas by this evening. Stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain displaced to the west of this surface boundary. Even so, there are some indications in guidance that elevated thunderstorms posing a threat for isolated hail may impact parts of the northern Plains this evening into tonight. Weak instability should tend to limit the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST... Minor adjustments were made to bring the Elevated area further north into northwestern New Mexico and far eastern Arizona to account for latest trends in ensemble guidance. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will continue to intensify as it emerges over the Rockies and onto the Plains Wednesday. Strong mid-level flow will strengthen a lee cyclone with a trailing cold front and dryline across the Great Plains. Dry westerly flow is likely over the Southwest where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A more conditional threat for locally elevated fire-weather conditions exist over the Plains and Midwest ahead of the cold front. ...Southwest... As the main upper trough begins to move eastward over the Plains, the fire weather threat will persist for portions of Southwest. Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the upper-trough will support westerly downslope winds to 20-25 mph across southern New Mexico and eastern AZ Wednesday afternoon and evening. Amidst a very dry surface pattern with little recent rainfall and abnormally warm temperatures, RH values below 15% are likely. With sufficient fuels in place, and expanding in coverage from recent drying, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely Wednesday. ...Central plains and upper Midwest... As the upper trough moves eastward, a lee trough/dryline will gradually sharpen across the central CONUS. To the west, dry downslope flow is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. With RH minimums below 30% and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given rainfall over the past week. Increasing surface moisture and some precipitation potential with the advancing cold front may further limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more