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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS this week into next weekend. Multiple cold fronts will sweep over the Northeast and down the West Coast leading to potential fire weather concerns at times in portions of these regions. Areas in the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains will likely have stronger winds overlap lower RH, but fuels will remain a mitigating factor. ...Southern/Central California... Gusty northwest winds across portions of southern California will turn north-northeasterly early Day 3/Tuesday and continue into Day 4/Wednesday. Gusty offshore winds of 25-50 mph are expected Day 3/Tuesday morning but temperatures will be cooler with RH hovering around elevated thresholds. RH will decrease especially at mid/upper slopes below critical thresholds with poor RH overnight recovery Day 3/Tuesday evening into Day 4/Wednesday morning, but winds will be weaker. While the strongest offshore winds and lowest forecast RH are unlikely to overlap, elevated to locally critical conditions are possible starting early Day 3/Tuesday morning through Day 3/Tuesday night. Behind another cold front, gusty northerly to offshore winds are possible in southern California and the Central Valley/vicinity next weekend. Mid/upper slopes around the Bay Area, the foothills surrounding the Central Valley, and the Transverse Ranges of southern California are forecast to have gusty north-northeast winds with lowering RH on Day 7/Saturday - Day 8/Sunday. However, a fair amount of forecast uncertainty exists regarding the amount of preceding precipitation and strength of the northerly/offshore winds. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Day 4/Wednesday and again on Day 7/Saturday. Precipitation is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast associated with both frontal passages, but some areas are likely to receive little and possibly no precipitation in the next seven days. Given the record high fire danger, drier pockets will be monitored for including probabilities or outlook areas in subsequent issuances. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...20Z Update... Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St. Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z (Monday morning). Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Tuesday evening. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level trough will move into Rockies on Tuesday, as a broad belt of low-level flow strengthens across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday. Moisture advection ahead of the front will result in a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F and lower 60S F. MUCAPE is expected to increase into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the moist axis by late afternoon, as mid-level lapse rates steepen due to the approach of the trough. Low-level convergence ahead of the front is forecast to become maximized early Tuesday evening, which should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings in the eastern Texas Panhandle at 03Z on Tuesday have effective shear near 40 knots, with 3-6 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This may support isolated supercell development, with a potential for severe hail. The storms are expected to be elevated and marginal in nature, due to factors such as the late arrival of the trough, and relatively weak instability. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Tuesday evening. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level trough will move into Rockies on Tuesday, as a broad belt of low-level flow strengthens across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the southern and central High Plains on Tuesday. Moisture advection ahead of the front will result in a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture across west Texas, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F and lower 60S F. MUCAPE is expected to increase into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the moist axis by late afternoon, as mid-level lapse rates steepen due to the approach of the trough. Low-level convergence ahead of the front is forecast to become maximized early Tuesday evening, which should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings in the eastern Texas Panhandle at 03Z on Tuesday have effective shear near 40 knots, with 3-6 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This may support isolated supercell development, with a potential for severe hail. The storms are expected to be elevated and marginal in nature, due to factors such as the late arrival of the trough, and relatively weak instability. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... While strong and gusty winds are expected from eastern Kern County northward along/east of the southern Sierra, fuels remain a mitigating factor. The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... While strong and gusty winds are expected from eastern Kern County northward along/east of the southern Sierra, fuels remain a mitigating factor. The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday along parts of the eastern Gulf Coast, Atlantic Seaboard and in the western states. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, thunderstorms will be possible on Monday within a moist airmass across the eastern Carolinas. Isolated storms may also occur along a sea breeze boundary in coastal parts of south and east Florida. In addition, some lighting strikes may occur in the central Gulf Coast, in association with the outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael. In the western U.S., thunderstorms may develop on Monday ahead of a mid-level trough from the Sierras northward into western Oregon and western Washington. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St. Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z (Monday morning). Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Elevated conditions are likely from northern New Jersey and far northeast Pennsylvania to southern New England late this morning into the afternoon before showers arrive as a warm front lifts northward through the Northeast. Locally elevated conditions are already developing in parts of Upstate New York and northeast Pennsylvania ahead of the increasing cloud cover and showers. While marginally elevated conditions are expected in a relatively narrow temporal window, the ongoing drought and record high fire danger in the region led to the issuance. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Elevated conditions are likely from northern New Jersey and far northeast Pennsylvania to southern New England late this morning into the afternoon before showers arrive as a warm front lifts northward through the Northeast. Locally elevated conditions are already developing in parts of Upstate New York and northeast Pennsylvania ahead of the increasing cloud cover and showers. While marginally elevated conditions are expected in a relatively narrow temporal window, the ongoing drought and record high fire danger in the region led to the issuance. ..Nauslar.. 11/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...Synopsis... General upper-air pattern deamplification is expected over most of the CONUS through the period, except over: 1. The West Coast (height falls ahead of an approaching, high-amplitude synoptic trough) and 2. The Great Lakes (height falls preceding the ejection of the cyclone now centered over northwest IA). The formerly cut-off/larger cyclone is rejoining the prevailing westerlies, and will accelerate eastward and weaken over the Great Lakes. This will happen as a strong shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern/southern AB -- digs east-southeastward toward Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow, while forming a closed or nearly closed 500-mb low. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken as its low- level center and deep convection get more displaced from each other, per NHC discussions. The circulation is forecast to continue weakening, as the low-level vortex loops around the central/west- central Gulf today, then shift southwestward thereafter. Refer to NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity of Rafael. In between those features, a plume of moist low-level air, cooling northward at the surface and aloft, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, near and east of an occluded/cold frontal zone drawn at 11Z from southern IL across westernmost portions of KY/TN, western MS, central/southwestern LA, and TX coastal waters. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Overall severe potential will be limited by lack of stronger shear in the south (closer to the coast) where low-level theta-e is largest, and lack of surface-based instability in the north. Some model soundings suggest that surface-based parcels and marginal deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range) may overlap this afternoon over portions of the Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio Valley. While this will need to be monitored, lack of backing in low-level flow will limit both convergence and hodograph size, amid weak deep-layer lapse rates and potentially messy convective mode. At this time, the severe threat appears too low and conditional for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight. ...Synopsis... General upper-air pattern deamplification is expected over most of the CONUS through the period, except over: 1. The West Coast (height falls ahead of an approaching, high-amplitude synoptic trough) and 2. The Great Lakes (height falls preceding the ejection of the cyclone now centered over northwest IA). The formerly cut-off/larger cyclone is rejoining the prevailing westerlies, and will accelerate eastward and weaken over the Great Lakes. This will happen as a strong shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern/southern AB -- digs east-southeastward toward Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow, while forming a closed or nearly closed 500-mb low. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken as its low- level center and deep convection get more displaced from each other, per NHC discussions. The circulation is forecast to continue weakening, as the low-level vortex loops around the central/west- central Gulf today, then shift southwestward thereafter. Refer to NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity of Rafael. In between those features, a plume of moist low-level air, cooling northward at the surface and aloft, will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, near and east of an occluded/cold frontal zone drawn at 11Z from southern IL across westernmost portions of KY/TN, western MS, central/southwestern LA, and TX coastal waters. ...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley... Overall severe potential will be limited by lack of stronger shear in the south (closer to the coast) where low-level theta-e is largest, and lack of surface-based instability in the north. Some model soundings suggest that surface-based parcels and marginal deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range) may overlap this afternoon over portions of the Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio Valley. While this will need to be monitored, lack of backing in low-level flow will limit both convergence and hodograph size, amid weak deep-layer lapse rates and potentially messy convective mode. At this time, the severe threat appears too low and conditional for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns that are evident on D3/Tuesday appear to affect the extended period. Non-GEFS/GFS models support a slower/southward evolution of a shortwave trough across the central states into the East on D4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The 00Z deterministic ECMWF/UKMET are quite similar with this scenario. While the surface cyclone reflection may be weak, rich Gulf moisture coupled with an increase in low-level flow may be sufficient for at least a low-probability severe threat centered on the Lower MS Valley to the northeast Gulf Coast/southern Deep South. Late week, there continues to be above-average agreement with a positive-tilt longwave trough developing from the Canadian Prairies to off the southern CA coast. Despite typical predictability concerns with the handling of embedded shortwave impulses, the primary impactful difference is with the degree of moisture return across the Great Plains. Non-GEFS/GFS models have trended towards poorer-quality return flow in the wake of the leading shortwave trough on D4-5 and subsequent continental air mass intrusion into the Gulf. As such, despite SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance depicting 5-15 percent severe probabilities next weekend, other models seemingly suggest a 5 percent or less threat for now. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Predictability concerns that are evident on D3/Tuesday appear to affect the extended period. Non-GEFS/GFS models support a slower/southward evolution of a shortwave trough across the central states into the East on D4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The 00Z deterministic ECMWF/UKMET are quite similar with this scenario. While the surface cyclone reflection may be weak, rich Gulf moisture coupled with an increase in low-level flow may be sufficient for at least a low-probability severe threat centered on the Lower MS Valley to the northeast Gulf Coast/southern Deep South. Late week, there continues to be above-average agreement with a positive-tilt longwave trough developing from the Canadian Prairies to off the southern CA coast. Despite typical predictability concerns with the handling of embedded shortwave impulses, the primary impactful difference is with the degree of moisture return across the Great Plains. Non-GEFS/GFS models have trended towards poorer-quality return flow in the wake of the leading shortwave trough on D4-5 and subsequent continental air mass intrusion into the Gulf. As such, despite SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance depicting 5-15 percent severe probabilities next weekend, other models seemingly suggest a 5 percent or less threat for now. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across a portion of the southern High Plains on Tuesday evening. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A zonal upper flow regime over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses across the West and likely reaches the northern Great Plains to southern High Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance differs with the evolution of individual shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough. Non-NCEP guidance prefers amplification of the primary impulse within the basal portion of the trough. This would result in pronounced mid-level height falls overspreading the southern High Plains Tuesday evening/night. Low-level moisture quality will be lacking, owing to the continued presence of TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will emanate northward from northeast Mexico. A plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by late day. This may yield a narrow ribbon of meager/weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence is low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels within the west-southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective development is expected during the evening as large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection. With favorable speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer, a few elevated supercells may form with a threat for hail. Severe hail magnitudes should be confined to the early period of sustained-storm activity, but small hail could persist east-northeast Tuesday night. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across a portion of the southern High Plains on Tuesday evening. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A zonal upper flow regime over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses across the West and likely reaches the northern Great Plains to southern High Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance differs with the evolution of individual shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough. Non-NCEP guidance prefers amplification of the primary impulse within the basal portion of the trough. This would result in pronounced mid-level height falls overspreading the southern High Plains Tuesday evening/night. Low-level moisture quality will be lacking, owing to the continued presence of TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will emanate northward from northeast Mexico. A plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by late day. This may yield a narrow ribbon of meager/weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence is low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels within the west-southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective development is expected during the evening as large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection. With favorable speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer, a few elevated supercells may form with a threat for hail. Severe hail magnitudes should be confined to the early period of sustained-storm activity, but small hail could persist east-northeast Tuesday night. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting entirely offshore around midday. A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during the afternoon. ...Western WA/OR and northern CA... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland. ..Grams.. 11/10/2024 Read more