SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The current forecast remains on track. ... Greater Southern New England Area ... A very dry airmass remains in place across the region, with afternoon relative humidity values falling below 30%. Couple this very dry and receptive fuels, the overall fire environment will be susceptible to fire starts. The mitigating factor for extreme fire behavior will be light northerly winds. Across coastal regions of southern New England, a better overlap of warm temperatures and slightly stronger winds will exist. Thus, the elevated area was kept. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by 00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land, while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement. In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000 J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is sufficient. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance agreement has increased with regard to poor-quality moisture return ahead of an upper trough ejecting from the West into the central states on D4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. A preceding surface ridge into the Gulf Coast region appears likely to inhibit appreciable poleward advection of Gulf moisture through D5. While differences remain in the evolution of the upper trough, guidance has markedly shifted north with cyclogenesis centered on the northern Great Plains. This setup appears unlikely to support an organized severe threat. Late week, the next broad upper trough has above-average agreement in reaching the West Coast. Guidance indicates potentially greater low-level moisture return from the western Gulf into the southern Great Plains. This suggests at least a low-probability severe threat may occur next weekend, as indicated by both SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance, which appears supported by the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. Predictability is low with the evolution of embedded shortwave impulse within this large-scale trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance agreement has increased with regard to poor-quality moisture return ahead of an upper trough ejecting from the West into the central states on D4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. A preceding surface ridge into the Gulf Coast region appears likely to inhibit appreciable poleward advection of Gulf moisture through D5. While differences remain in the evolution of the upper trough, guidance has markedly shifted north with cyclogenesis centered on the northern Great Plains. This setup appears unlikely to support an organized severe threat. Late week, the next broad upper trough has above-average agreement in reaching the West Coast. Guidance indicates potentially greater low-level moisture return from the western Gulf into the southern Great Plains. This suggests at least a low-probability severe threat may occur next weekend, as indicated by both SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance, which appears supported by the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean. Predictability is low with the evolution of embedded shortwave impulse within this large-scale trough. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night. ...Southeast... Thunderstorm potential should be focused during the first half of the period. A weak cold front will accelerate southeast as a surface anticyclone moves into the Upper Midwest and a ridge builds south across the MS Valley. Convergence along the front will remain weak within a predominately zonal flow regime. In conjunction, with persistent weakness in lapse rates above the boundary layer, thunderstorm coverage should tend to be isolated. ...Pacific Northwest... A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, a generally onshore flow regime will persist through the period. Low to mid-level lapse rates will be steep, yielding instability amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave impulse should aid in scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster sporadic lightning. Very isolated thunderstorms may occur farther inland towards the northern Great Basin. But confidence is low in whether scant buoyancy will develop east of the Cascade Range. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. A small region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across portions of coastal southern New England where gusts of 15 mph with RH below 30%. Winds across southern California are expected to be mainly light, precluding the need for inclusion of any areas. ..Thornton.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward, will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude severe storms. Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night. ..Grams.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but instability will be too weak for a severe threat. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLL TO 35 NNE CRS AND 35 NNE CLL TO 20 SE CRS. WW 708 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09/03Z. ..KERR..11/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC161-090300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREESTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 708 TORNADO OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North and North-Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, and potentially a few semi-discrete supercells, should continue to develop regionally through mid/late afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK to 20 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas. ...East Texas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas. ...East Texas... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening. ..Broyles.. 11/09/2024 Read more

MD 2222 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 708... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma to central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 708... Valid 082136Z - 082330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues. SUMMARY...Local, all-hazards severe risk continues across WW 708. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop depicts essentially a steady-state character over the past 1 to 2 hours, in terms of convective intensity. A few storms have exhibited transient/weak rotation, and the strongest portion of the line -- extending from south-central Oklahoma to just west of the DFW Metroplex -- remains loosely organized. Still, some additional destabilization has occurred in the past two hours -- particularly from the Metroplex southward, where lesser cloud cover has permitted heating sufficient to push mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range per RAP-based objective analysis. Given the sufficient background shear which remains in place, potential for some ramp-up in severe potential could occur over the next 1 to 2 hours, primarily across the southern half of the WW. ..Goss.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 34659810 34749769 34269668 31049597 30999795 32809785 33739780 34659810 Read more

MD 2221 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into extreme northeast NM and the western OK Panhandle Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 081951Z - 090015Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of 1+ inch per hour will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...The deep mid/upper-level cyclone over NM that is supporting the ongoing long-duration snow event is currently in the process of pivoting north-northeastward, with a weak but deepening surface low moving northward near the OK/TX Panhandle border, where 2-hour pressure falls of 2-3 mb have been noted. Some continued deepening of this system is possible through the afternoon, which will maintain favorable deep ascent across eastern CO and vicinity. Persistent low-level moisture transport and ascent attendant to the cyclone could lead to some increase in snow rates this afternoon across parts of eastern CO, as precipitation pivots northwestward to the north of the low. While low-level temperatures will remain rather marginal, precipitation may become heavy enough to support occasional snow rates of 1+ inches per hour through the afternoon. ..Dean.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36520370 36910417 37480474 38490517 39410558 39920555 40190523 40190392 39980321 39670288 38910272 37940261 36540249 36530270 36520370 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TPL TO 35 NNW FTW TO 40 W ADM TO 25 S CHK. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-085-097-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-251-257-293-309-349- 397-439-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO ROCKWALL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more