MD 0355 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...Missouri Bootheel...western Kentucky...far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 021751Z - 021945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest an increasing probability of discrete storms near the Mississippi/Ohio confluence. All severe hazards, including strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cumulus west-southwest of Memphis into the Missouri Bootheel/western Kentucky. Within continued surface heating, these trends appear likely to continue. This region, ahead of the convective activity to the west, would be very favorable for discrete storm development. Should this occur, all severe hazards, including the potential for strong/intense tornadoes, would be possible. Regional VAD data shows strong low-level shear/hodograph enlargement. With the primary synoptic shortwave and surface low farther northwest, there remain some uncertainties as to when and how many storms will form. Morning observed soundings from the region did have capping inversions evident which could at least slow initiation. Given the environment, a tornado watch is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35159158 36879023 37538914 37448812 36688817 35158974 34639056 34599098 34759142 35159158 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone. As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee. ...West Texas to North Texas... Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear (80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and Northwest Texas. ...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee... An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However, if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time. ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WESTERN TEXAS... A dry, post-frontal air mass has infiltrated the southern High Plains region, supporting breezy northwest flow and RH values primarily in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface winds are expected to back to the west-southwest today across the southern High Plains region under modest southwest flow aloft. However, daytime mixing should be inhibited to a degree as mid and high level cloud cover expands eastward into eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this afternoon. This should limit wind speeds to below critical thresholds, particularly across eastern New Mexico and the Cap Rock area of Texas. As such, Critical highlights were trimmed in this area. Farther south, a stalling frontal boundary and weakening pressure gradient will support lighter winds through the afternoon hours over western portions of the Edwards Plateau, reducing overall fire weather risk. Therefore, Elevated conditions have been trimmed in this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow (around 80 kt at 500 mb) will persist across southern NM and the southern High Plains -- within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West. In the low-levels, weak lee cyclone development is expected over far southeast CO and over the TX Big Bend. ...Southern New Mexico into the Southern High Plains... The strong downslope flow will promote warming/drying of a post-frontal air mass across the region -- with RH dropping to around 15-20 percent through the afternoon. At the same time, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination will yield critical fire-weather conditions across southern NM into portions of the southern High Plains. Even deeper boundary-layer mixing over the northern TX/OK Panhandles, northeast NM, and southeast CO will favor single-digit RH, though slightly weaker surface winds and ongoing precipitation should limit the fire-weather threat here compared to areas farther south. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Northern Louisiana Western Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

WW 97 TORNADO AR IL MO 021345Z - 022100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 97 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Central Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 845 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken clusters of storms and some embedded/semi-discrete supercells will spread east-northeastward across the region through early/mid-afternoon, with an increasing tornado risk aside from widespread damaging winds and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Alton IL to 30 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94...WW 95...WW 96... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...OH/MS Valleys through tonight... In response to an ejecting midlevel trough and associated 110 kt 500 mb jet streak, a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from IA to Lake Superior. Severe storms are ongoing in a broken band from west central IL across MO into northwest AR/eastern OK, which demarcates the effective frontal zone and focus for additional storm development through the afternoon. The warm sector in advance of these storms is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s across IL/MO and near 70 F from the Ark-La-Tex into the Ark-La-Miss. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward through the day on 50-70 kt flow 1-2 km above ground level, and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range with only weak convective inhibition through the afternoon. The northern extent of the surface warm sector (northeast IL across northern IN/northwest OH/southern Lower MI) will be modulated by ongoing convection. The primary jet streak/cyclone will be displaced northwest of the unstable warm sector, though flow will remain strong in the warm sector with long hodographs and substantial low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Convective mode is expected to be somewhat messy with embedded supercells within an increasingly extensive band of storms through the afternoon/evening. Convective inhibition will be sufficiently weak to support some potential for a few supercells ahead of the band in the open warm sector. The tornado threat will be maximized for the more discrete storms within or ahead of the main band, where a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, evolution into an extensive squall line is expected with an accompanying threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) and occasional large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter - especially with persistent supercells). Overnight, the northern portion of the squall line will eventually move east of the more unstable warm sector and weaken from OH into western PA. The southern portion of the convective band is expected to pivot gradually to a more WSW-ENE orientation favoring training convection along and atop the conglomerate cold pool. ...North TX/southeast OK this evening through Thursday morning... In the wake of the ejecting IA-Lake Superior jet streak, midlevel flow will tend to amplify/back with time over TX, downstream of the amplifying large-scale trough over the Southwest. This will contribute to weak cyclogenesis across northwest TX along the residual baroclinic zone, and a strengthening warm advection regime along/north of the boundary tonight. The open warm sector will likely remain capped (per the warm elevated mixed layer observed this morning over TX), but the environment will favor elevated supercells to the cool side of the boundary. Very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts will be the main threats with these elevated storms overnight. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/02/2025 Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE MLC TO 30 NW FSM TO 25 ESE GMJ TO 20 NNE UMN TO 35 ESE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-109-119-131-141-167-209-213-225- 021640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER OKC079-135-021640- Read more

MD 0351 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Far northeast Indiana and northern/central Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021331Z - 021530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated thunderstorms. The eastern/northern extent of the threat remains uncertain. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection with a few embedded stronger cells are being driven by strong low-level warm advection in parts of eastern Indiana into central/northern Ohio. Morning observed soundings from ILN and ILX suggest these storms are likely on the periphery of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume. Despite cooler surface temperatures, adequate elevated buoyancy and strong shear could support occasional storm intensification/organization. A few of these storms have produced small to marginally severe hail. The main question is whether storms will outpace the elevated buoyancy and eventually weaken. Given the strengthening surface/850 mb low today, there is at least some potential for storms to maintain some intensity farther east. A watch is not currently anticipated. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 41858408 41878114 41718066 41098065 40458120 40168195 39848335 39838423 40158498 40798547 41268550 41688483 41858408 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0352 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central Illinois into far western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021448Z - 021645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Currently elevated storms in central Illinois will move eastward. Marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds are possible. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated storms are moving eastward in west-central Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates (observed on the 12Z ILX sounding), strong shear, and strong moisture return will allow occasionally intensification of this activity. Marginally severe hail as well as isolated damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms. Muted surface heating is occurring ahead of and south of this activity through a thick cirrus canopy. Moisture return is also pushing dewpoints into the low 60s F as far north as Springfield, IL. Through time, the southern fringe of this activity may become surface based and pose a greater severe risk. At least in the short term, however, watch is not expected. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39739090 40619040 41048987 41278913 41528743 41278675 40298667 39948730 39369071 39739090 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MLC TO 10 ENE MKO TO 35 W FYV TO 20 SSE JLN TO 35 NW SGF TO 20 SSE SZL. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON MOC009-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-105-109-119-131-141-145- 167-209-213-225-021540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS GREENE HICKORY LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER Read more

WW 96 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 021020Z - 021700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 96 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest and Central Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday morning from 520 AM until NOON CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of scattered severe/damaging winds through the morning, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph. Embedded supercells should also have a tornado and large hail risk, with a strong tornado possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Springfield MO to 30 miles south southwest of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...WW 95... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Southern Indiana * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough with associated 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak will advance quickly northeastward today across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A broader area of 50-70+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley and OH Valley. At the surface, the primary low over far eastern NE/western IA this morning is forecast to develop northeastward in tandem with the upper trough today, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest by this evening. A trailing cold front will continue east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ozarks today, before eventually stalling and lifting northward as a warm front tonight. Weak secondary surface low development is possible this afternoon and evening along or just ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South. ...Ozarks into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Southern Great Lakes... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from northern MO southwestward to southern OK and north TX along/near the cold front. Even with some capping concerns noted on area soundings ahead of this activity, a very strong (60-70 kt) southerly low-level jet is providing ample low-level moisture transport to support continued convective intensity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear are also fostering some embedded supercell structures, with associated large hail threat. Otherwise, given the strength of the low-level flow and very strong effective SRH, scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the primary threats with this line of convection as it continues eastward this morning across the remainder of OK into AR and MO. A strong tornado may occur with any sustained surface-based supercell. The effect that this morning convection has on downstream afternoon severe potential across the lower/mid MS Valley may be substantial. Most guidance shows either a gradual weakening trend with the line by late morning/early afternoon, or a devolution into a broken line of supercells. Mid/high-level cloud debris could inhibit daytime heating to some extent across much of the warm sector, and the northern extent of the weakening line over northern MO may serve as a cutoff for surface-based thunderstorms across the Midwest and OH Valley later today. Even with these continued uncertainties, it appears likely that a corridor of moderate to strong instability will develop this afternoon across the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and lower OH Valley, generally ahead of whatever remains of the ongoing/morning convection. With more nebulous/weaker large-scale ascent over these regions given their spatial displacement from the ejecting upper trough, there may be a more mixed/supercell mode this afternoon/evening, particularly with southward extent. Current expectations are for several intense supercells and clusters to develop by 20-00Z from far northern LA into eastern AR, northwest MS, western TN/KY, and southeast MO, and southern IL/IN. This region appears to have the most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability, strong deep-layer shear, and ample low-level shear to support multiple tornadic storms. With most guidance showing enlarged, curved hodographs through the boundary layer, and effective SRH forecast to generally range 250-400+ m2/s2, several strong tornadoes are likely. Multiple EF-3+ tornadoes should also occur given the very favorable parameter space forecast, but this high-end tornado potential may be dependent on a relative lack of supercell/cluster interactions, which are difficult to pinpoint. Still, based on latest high-resolution guidance trends showing multiple intense supercells developing, the High Risk has been expanded a bit southward with this update to include more of eastern and south-central AR. The tornado and severe/damaging wind threat will likely continue after dark, with updraft interactions suggesting a messy mode, with clusters/lines and embedded supercells all possible. In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today. But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest. But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and western OH. ...Southern Plains... With the cold front expected to stall and eventually begin lifting northward tonight, additional supercells may develop late in tandem with ascent preceding another shortwave trough and a strengthening southerly low-level jet. With steep mid-level lapse rates present and ample MUCAPE and deep-layer shear, this convection should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/02/2025 Read more

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W ADM TO 45 WNW MLC TO 20 S TUL TO 40 SSE CNU. ..LEITMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC029-063-099-111-123-131-021340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COAL HUGHES MURRAY OKMULGEE PONTOTOC ROGERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE OJC TO 20 W SZL TO 30 NE SZL TO 30 N COU. ..LEITMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC013-053-083-089-101-159-195-021340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES COOPER HENRY HOWARD JOHNSON PETTIS SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0348 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021115Z - 021315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds and marginal hail to near 1 inch possible this morning. Overall risk is expected to remain low and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed along an eastward-advancing cold front across western north Texas this morning. Mid-60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to strong MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Capping and modest linear forcing associated with the cold front will likely preclude greater severe potential despite the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. Nevertheless, isolated gusty winds and perhaps hail to near 1 inch diameter will be possible. Watch issuance is not currently expected, but radar trends will continue to be monitored through the morning. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 34059861 33029973 32549963 32369846 32579722 32849675 33279648 33709658 33809686 34059861 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0349 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 95...96... FOR NORTHEAST OK INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0349 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...northeast OK into extreme southwest MO/northwest AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...96... Valid 021157Z - 021400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95, 96 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado potential may be maximized across northeast Oklahoma into extreme southwest Missouri/northwest Arkansas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shows some propensity for linear convection to become more supercellular. This activity is moving across the max STP corridor (effective layer STP around 5-7) amid strong vertical shear and moderate instability. While some rotation has been occurring, and even a brief TDS was noted over Tulsa and Rogers Counties in northeast OK, capping and storm motion parallel to the surface front is likely limiting the longevity of stronger/better organized cells within the broader line of convection. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts and isolated large hail remain possible this morning. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36889542 37099478 36869430 36399415 36069438 35629512 35449595 35509663 35979656 36809577 36889542 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0096 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 96 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 96 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-021240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-021240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-131- 141-145-167-185-209-213-217-225-021240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN Read more