MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...262... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...south central/southeastern Kansas and north central/northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...262... Valid 200000Z - 200230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260, 262 continues. SUMMARY...Organizing convective clusters accompanied by potentially strong, damaging wind gusts may increasingly impact areas east of the Interstate 35 corridor of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma after 10 PM. Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch across northeastern Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Convective evolution into late evening remains somewhat unclear. As a low amplitude mid-level short wave progresses across central Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley, mid-level warming is forecast across much of Oklahoma. Coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, this will contribute to increasing inhibition, with the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet (50+ kt around 850 mb) becoming focused over southwestern/south central Kansas near Medicine Loge. However, a corridor of higher moisture content air remains focused east of the dryline through areas near/just east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Supported by inflow of this air, with CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg, ongoing convection may continue to grow upscale and organize further during the next few hours, and potentially begin to impact portions of southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma as early as 03-05Z. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38399682 37879553 37079548 36369593 35539719 35769820 36219846 36879823 37409819 38189801 38399682 Read more

MD 0844 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central into north central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 200048Z - 200245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...A long-lived isolated supercell storm may be maintained at least another couple of hours, possibly impacting at least northern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area by 10-11 PM CDT, with a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches, strong, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a continuing risk for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Embedded within southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30-35 kt, an isolated intense supercell has been slowly propagating eastward, away from the initiating dryline, to the north of the Clinton-Sherman vicinity. Low-level hodographs have been enlarging some, and a more notable increase in low-level shear is forecast through 04-06Z, along a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet (in excess of 50 kt) from northwest Texas toward the Medicine Loge KS area. However, with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling, inhibition across and east of the dryline is already in the process of increasing, and lower/mid-tropospheric warming forecast across much of Oklahoma this evening will contribute further to this. Even so, given the favorable shear beneath a seasonably strong westerly mid/upper jet nosing into the south central Great Plains, and the strong potential instability eastward into the I-35 corridor, it is possible that the ongoing supercell may be maintained another couple of hours, eastward through northern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 36039866 36089809 36029705 35899679 35629702 35609754 35559807 35679862 36039866 Read more

MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260...262... FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0815 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...262... Valid 200115Z - 200315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260, 262 continues. SUMMARY...Stronger surface gusts, perhaps occasionally exceeding 70 mph, may be maintained with an evolving cluster of storms northeast and east of Wichita toward the Joplin MO/Bartlesville OK vicinities through 10-11 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Trailing one still well-defined MCV now migrating eastward along the I-70 corridor near Manhattan, a second MCV is becoming better-defined along intersecting outflow boundaries to the north of Wichita. Associated with this evolution, measured gusts to 75 kt were recorded in Hutchinson at 0039Z. Although inflow into the convective system may become less unstable due to somewhat drier low-level air across much of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma, strong to severe gusts may continue at least another couple of hours to the southwest/south of the evolving southern MCV. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38269688 38149597 37609492 37189563 37319681 37879723 38269688 Read more

WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-017-047-071-073-083-103-113-117-119-200240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CANADIAN GARFIELD KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN NOBLE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 264 SEVERE TSTM OK 200035Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night from 735 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely move east into central Oklahoma during the evening. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening. The risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts will accompany any mature supercell. The severe risk is expected to lessen later this evening as convective inhibition strengthens. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Enid OK to 5 miles south southeast of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0263 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 263 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 263 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-051-085-200240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS MCINTOSH SIOUX SDC013-045-049-059-069-089-115-200240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HYDE MCPHERSON SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 263 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 200010Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Dakota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday evening from 710 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will potentially be capable of 60-70 mph gusts and large hail 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter through the evening hours. The severe risk is forecast to diminish by late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Mobridge SD to 120 miles southeast of Mobridge SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261...WW 262... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE MHK TO 20 NNW FNB TO 10 NNE SDA TO 35 S DNS. ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-029-039-053-117-121-137-145-159-173-175-181-185- 200240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS CASS CLARKE DECATUR LUCAS MADISON MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE KSC001-003-005-011-013-019-021-031-035-037-043-045-049-059-073- 085-087-091-099-103-107-111-121-125-131-133-139-149-177-197-205- 207-209-200240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BROWN CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD Read more

WW 262 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 192320Z - 200700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Eastern Kansas Western Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several severe thunderstorm clusters are forecast to develop and move eastward into the Watch area this evening into the overnight. Severe gusts ranging between 60-85 mph are possible with the more intense thunderstorm cores and bowing segments. Large hail may accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms mainly this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Lamoni IA to 55 miles southwest of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...WW 261... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CSM TO 45 SE DDC TO 20 NNW HUT TO 40 SSE BIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842 ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-017-033-041-061-077-079-095-113-115-127-151-155-161- 173-191-200240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHASE COMANCHE DICKINSON GEARY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS PRATT RENO RILEY SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-039-043-053-093-151-153-200240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CUSTER DEWEY GRANT MAJOR WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 260 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 191935Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas Northwestern Oklahoma Northeastern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Widespread large hail expected with scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and track rapidly eastward across the watch area through the afternoon evening. Supercells capable of giant hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat early. Storms will organize into multiple fast-moving bowing lines through the evening with a risk of widespread damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles southwest of Alva OK to 45 miles northwest of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...WW 259... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW GCK TO 40 NNW GLD TO 20 W IML TO 20 E IML TO 15 S HLC. ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-039-109-153-179-193-200240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC057-087-200240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 261 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 192135Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will be capable of severe gusts and large hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out with any cyclonic supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Burlington CO to 65 miles east of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258...WW 259...WW 260... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0259 Status Updates
200240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 9V9 TO 45 W 9V9 TO 45 WSW MBG TO 45 NNE Y22. ..MOORE..05/20/24 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC021-031-041-065-085-107-119-129-200240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY HUGHES LYMAN POTTER SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 259 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD 191855Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming over parts of western South Dakota and Nebraska. These storms will spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging winds gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of Mobridge SD to 40 miles southeast of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 258... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and large hail are expected to persist this evening across portions of southern/eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central Plains... 2 storms clusters have now congealed into a large line of storms across central and southern Kansas. This line of storms has a history of producing 75 to 100 mph winds earlier this evening. While the extreme wind threat is likely over, 70-80 mph winds are still possible for a few more hours as this squall line moves east across southeast Kansas with some wind threat expected to persist into Missouri during the overnight period. See MCD 842 for additional information. Farther south, a persistent, large supercell continues across western Oklahoma. This supercell has a history of baseball sized hail and at least one tornado. This storm will encounter increasing inhibition as the boundary layer continues to cool ahead of it. The HRRR suggests additional supercells may develop across northwest/northern Oklahoma late this evening along the trailing outflow boundary from the Kansas MCS as the low-level jet strengthens. These storms will have primary threats of large hail and severe wind gusts, although a tornado or two may also be possible. ...Dakotas... A cluster of storms produced a swath of damaging wind gusts across western South Dakota this afternoon and early evening. This threat has mostly abated, but additional supercells have developed near the ND/SD border which will pose a threat of damaging winds and large hail for a few more hours this evening. For more information, see MCD 841. ..Bentley.. 05/20/2024 Read more

MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into Central Kansas...northeast Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 192051Z - 192245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for very-large hail, significant wind gusts, and tornadoes will continue into the evening. DISCUSSION...The greatest tornado risk within WW 260 exists near Russell, KS. There was a recent report of a tornado west of Russell at 2027Z. The environment downstream of this storm should remain favorable for very-large hail (severe 2+ in. reports are associated with this storm over the past 90 minutes), severe wind gusts (71 kts measured at KRSL), and tornadoes. The surface observation at Salina shows 91/60, which would suggest some reduction in low-level RH. The eastern extent of the tornado threat with this storm is the main uncertainty. Farther west, a cluster of high-based thunderstorms continues into western Kansas. This activity has the potential to become more intense/organized as it encounters low/mid 60s F dewpoints farther east. Most guidance has been insistent on this activity becoming a bowing segment with the potential for significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. Storms moving out of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma have so far struggled to maintain intensity, most likely due to limited moisture. As with storms to the north, intensification/organization is possible as greater low-level moisture is ingested. With these storms remaining more discrete, a tornado threat is still possible, particularly as the low-level jet increases this evening. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 35639976 35930068 36720193 38230200 39069985 39519820 39369673 38359647 37189749 35829882 35639976 Read more

MD 0837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0837 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...South-central to southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192132Z - 192330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms across south-central to southeast Iowa may pose a large hail and severe wind threat over the next couple of hours. This threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection across central IA has shown periodic signs of intensification to near severe levels based on IR cloud top temperatures and MRMS vertically integrated ICE products with a measured 61 mph gust noted at KPEA. This activity appears to largely be driven by a combination of weak ascent atop a diffuse stationary front and propagation along a buoyancy gradient draped from south-central to southeast IA. This boundary/gradient appears to be gradually spreading north/northeast over the past couple of hours, which should support storm propagation into southeast to perhaps eastern IA by early evening. Along with sporadic severe winds, large hail - most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inches - may be a threat. It remains unclear how much additional convection will develop and become sustained within the frontal zone based on trends of trailing convection across central IA, but the general expectation is for a limited coverage of intense/severe storms. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41109272 41149295 41299308 41609312 41769299 42359099 42139067 41869051 41609058 41389065 41259084 41149109 41109272 Read more

MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 258... FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258... Valid 192153Z - 200000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues across parts of the southeast Florida coast. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations continue to show deep convection developing along and behind a southward-surging outflow boundary along the southeast FL coast. While most storms have struggled to intensify due to the undercutting nature of the boundary, a few deeper cells have managed to mature within an otherwise favorable supercell environment. A sea-breeze boundary remains evident along the southeastern FL coast ahead of the outflow boundary, and while deeper convective initiation has occurred within the past hour, strengthening low-level westerly winds has shifted the boundary closer to the coast, resulting in quick storm propagation offshore. The general expectation over the next 1-2 hours is for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms along the southeast FL coast with a few strong to severe cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. This threat will gradually abate through the evening hours amid the onset of nocturnal cooling and a continued southward surge of the undercutting outflow boundary. ..Moore.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL... LAT...LON 26888070 26938060 26938008 26848003 26588002 26418005 26238008 26098010 25938010 25768011 25688014 25648024 25628031 25708045 25798057 25938066 26068073 26198078 26328083 26538085 26668083 26788078 26888070 Read more

MD 0839 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 260... FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...much of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 192217Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to continue to gradually evolve and organize during the next couple of hours, with severe wind gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph becoming the most prominent severe hazard by 7-8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Embedded within 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, an ongoing intense supercell has been rightward (eastward) propagating toward the Salina KS vicinity. This motion is roughly coincident with a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented warm frontal zone, extending along/north of the Interstate 70 corridor into northeastern Kansas. Given enhanced forcing for ascent associated with low-level convergence and warm advection along this boundary, and fairly sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads to the south of the front, further upscale growth and evolution into a more prominent bowing structure with strong damaging surface gusts becoming the primary severe hazards seems probable through 23-01Z. At the same time, as a low-amplitude short wave trough continues to gradually emerge from the southern Rockies, intensifying storms along the dryline north of Garden City KS into the Clinton-Sherman OK vicinity may continue to increase along consolidating eastward propagating outflows, aided by inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE to around 3000 J/kg. In the presence of seasonably moderate to strong shear, this activity seems likely to gradually organize. The evolution of one or two increasingly prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale vortices appears possible, with the quasi-stationary front north of Dodge City into the Russell/Salina vicinities one potential focus for strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39669764 39879551 38509541 37709738 36459817 36049924 36329991 37309965 38230020 38669959 39149846 39669764 Read more