MD 0862 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 287... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0862 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0511 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northwestern Oklahoma into extreme southwest Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 287... Valid 182211Z - 182345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell tornado threat increasing across parts of northwestern Oklahoma into extreme southwest Kansas during the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are evolving across the northeastern Texas Panhandle. While these storms are gradually impinging on the richer boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s dewpoints), they are still in the slightly higher-mixed/lower SRH air at this time. As a result, splitting-supercell mode may continue in the immediate near-term, with an associated risk of very large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms will continue spreading/developing northeastward into northwest Oklahoma, where visible satellite imagery depicts an antecedent sheltered boundary layer (with around 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per VWP and mesoanalysis data) and lower 70s dewpoints becoming increasingly unstable. Given the high SRH and strong/extreme surface-based instability here, and further increases in clockwise hodograph curvature/helicity into the evening with the strengthening low-level jet, the supercell tornado risk will continue increasing over the next couple hours. If a dominant right-mover can evolve, a strong/intense tornado will be possible. ..Weinman.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35929987 36100008 36430031 36800024 37020001 37069968 36889924 36499894 36119893 35929907 35859959 35929987 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0863 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 286... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska...Northwest Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 286... Valid 182214Z - 190015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase across parts of the central High Plains over the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will be possible with the more intense cores. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery at Cheyenne, Wyoming shows a cluster of severe storms with several supercells located from northeastern Colorado into far western Nebraska. The storms are located to the west of a low-level moisture axis, where surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range, and the RAP has MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Convective coverage is expected to increase as large-scale ascent, associated with an approaching mid-level trough, overspreads the central High Plains. The exit region of a mid-level jet is currently located over the central High Plains, which is enhancing lift and deep-layer shear. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Goodland, Kansas has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. In addition, the 20Z sounding at North Platte, Nebraska has a 700-500 mb lapse rate near 9 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large and wind damage. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39869942 40519970 41590087 42050198 42120272 42020339 41750387 41380421 40970417 40610363 39930268 39370211 38900154 38740105 38920022 39339962 39869942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0864 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...North-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 182239Z - 190115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across north-central Kansas, and expected to develop across parts of southern Nebraska. Supercells with large to very large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, convection has increased in coverage across north-central Kansas. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F. The storms appears to be related to a band of large-scale ascent that is moving northeastward across the central Plains, evident on water vapor imagery. The North-Platte 20Z sounding shows a cap in place, and RAP forecast soundings suggest the cap extends further to the southeast into north-central Kansas. For this reason, the ongoing convection appears to be elevated. Effective shear of 50 to 60 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, an isolated wind-damage/tornado threat will also be possible. Although this potential will increase later this evening as a second round of storms move into the area. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38319798 38129738 38269694 38499664 39029644 39599675 40239760 41069890 41139952 40799997 40289994 39569951 38829873 38319798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0288 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 288 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 288 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-133-143-155-197-207-221-237-253- 275-337-363-367-399-417-425-429-441-447-485-487-497-503- 182340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL HOOD JACK JONES KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 288 TORNADO TX 182130Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central into North-Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to rapidly develop and pose a threat for both a few tornadoes and large to very large hail this afternoon and evening as they move east-northeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. A strong tornado may occur with any persistent supercell this evening as low-level shear increases. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of Brownwood TX to 25 miles north northwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...WW 287... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0287 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 287 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 287 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-055-057-069-077-081-083-093-095-097- 101-119-135-145-151-155-165-171-175-185-195-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA LANE MEADE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RUSH SCOTT SEWARD STAFFORD TREGO OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-067-073-075-083-087-093-109-129-137-141-149-151- 153-182340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 287 TORNADO KS OK TX 182040Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Central Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify along a dryline and warm front and spread across the watch area through the evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Russell KS to 25 miles south southwest of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ITR TO 25 ESE CYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863 ..THORNTON..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-125-182340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123- 135-145-182340- Read more

WW 286 TORNADO CO KS NE 182000Z - 190200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will rapidly intensify this afternoon across the watch area in an increasingly moist and unstable air mass. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Sidney NE to 60 miles southwest of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0289 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0289 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 289 SEVERE TSTM AR 182155Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A supercell cluster with a history of producing up to 2 inch diameter hail and severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph will likely continue to move east-southeastward across parts of northern Arkansas late this afternoon and into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Harrison AR to 35 miles east southeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...WW 287...WW 288... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Mainly zonal flow will overspread the western and central CONUS through at least mid-week, before upper ridging sets in by the end of the week and a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West this weekend. Surface high pressure should overspread much of the western and central CONUS through the week, with surface lee troughing and accompanying moisture return likely across the Plains states by this weekend as the upper trough approaches. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the CONUS for the week. Warm and dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest into the weekend, which will encourage further curing of fuels. At the moment, there is some disagreement among medium-range guidance members concerning the timing and evolution of the weekend upper trough. As such, confidence in the placement and timing of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the Southwest is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. However, if the medium-range guidance comes into better consensus for dry/windy conditions atop drying fuels, Critical probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions. Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon. Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase through time with moisture advection increasing into central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this could pose a risk for a strong tornado. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...KS/OK... A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today. The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However, any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards. ...Western North TX... Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. ...MS/AL/GA... A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 18 19:39:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized convection capable of all severe hazards. Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent outlooks. Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity. ...NC Vicinity... A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering, supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as modest height falls overspread the region. ..Leitman.. 05/18/2025 Read more

MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...Northwest to west-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181858Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the dryline is expected roughly between 20-22 UTC across northwest to west-central Texas. The convective environment will support supercells capable of large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely as storms begin to develop. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery shows shallow, but slowly deepening, cumulus along and just ahead of a sharpening dryline as it continues to mix east and boundary-layer depth increases amid filtered diurnal heating. Latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings suggest any lingering MLCIN will be minimized as surface temperatures warm into the 92-95 F range over the next few hours within the warm sector. Regional VWPs show flow within the lowest 2-3 km AGL oriented roughly along the dryline, which should promote adequate residence times for parcels to reach their LFCs and initiate deep convection. Latest high-res solutions suggest this should occur generally between 20-22 UTC. Thunderstorms will mature within a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg and effective shear on the order of 40-50 knots. Limited directional shear will initially promote splitting supercells with an attendant very large hail threat (most probable max hail size may be 2-3 inches in diameter). Southeasterly low-level winds across northwest TX may support adequate low-level veering for some tornado threat. Further south (roughly south of I-20), 1.5 to 2.5 km LCL heights and more backed low-level flow will modulate the initial tornado potential. After 00 UTC a strengthening low-level jet will increase low-level hodograph curvature and support an increasing tornado threat with any remaining discrete right-moving supercells across much of central/northern TX. Watch issuance will likely be needed as thunderstorm initiation becomes more imminent. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 30980132 31340102 32480013 32860000 33250004 33760012 34079996 34279965 34239910 34149872 33989849 33609835 33029840 32379865 31779894 31059956 30879979 30480066 30370100 30450133 30660147 30980132 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0859 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...western Nebraska...northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181912Z - 182145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind are likely to develop after 21Z over northeast Colorado, spreading into western Nebraska and northwest Kansas through evening. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen over eastern CO as the shortwave trough moves across the area. Surface analysis shows a prominent plume of low-level moisture extending out of western KS and across northeast CO, where dewpoints are holding in the lower 50s F. Full heating near and south of this moisture plume will erode the minimal capping inversion by around 21Z, and rapid thunderstorm development is expected. The combination of strong instability, steep lapse rates, and veering winds with height will strongly favor supercells capable of very large hail, and a few tornadoes. Activity should easily remain severe into NE and KS this evening as the southeasterly low-level jet persists, maintaining moisture advection as well as shear and inflow. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39239981 38670057 38350123 38330167 38340215 39110277 39420328 39670364 39890412 40260434 40540451 40870437 41320401 41530379 41700344 41680291 41470190 41060094 40019974 39689971 39239981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with westward/eastward extensions of Critical/Elevated highlights (respectively) made to account for the latest guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves out of the Great Basin and into the southern Great Plains on Monday, dry down-slope winds behind a dryline in southern New Mexico into far western Texas will result in Critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, some persistent northerly flow over central California will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the San Joaquin valley. ...Southern New Mexico into Far Western Texas... Westerly down-slope winds in New Mexico beneath a progressive mid-level trough, along with deep boundary-layer mixing and a deepening surface cyclone, will result in widespread Critical fire-weather conditions across southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Winds in excess of 25 MPH with relative humidity at or below 10% will overspread a region of fuels that are at or above the 90th annual ERC percentiles, and will result in conditions that support rapid wildfire ignition and spread. Some locally Extremely Critical conditions may occur, with winds in excess of 30 MPH, across portions of southern New Mexico. However, they appear too localized for highlights at this time. ...Central California... Ensemble guidance suggests that deep boundary-layer mixing beneath persistent mid-level northerly flow will result in Elevated fire-weather conditions. While fuels are on the more marginal side, 15+ MPH winds and relative humidity at or below 15% will support at least Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more