WW 594 TORNADO FL GA CW 041455Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. As wind fields strengthen, the potential will exist for a few tornadoes in the stronger cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Valdosta GA to 20 miles southeast of Naples FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area to include portions of the central Rockies within western CO, and to remove most of the ID panhandle where recent wetting rains occurred. Relative to today PWATs will decrease slightly Monday afternoon across portions of the northern Great Basin and Upper CO River Basin ahead of a shortwave trough. Most fuels within these regions, void of any recent precipitation, remain receptive to lightning ignitions. For additional details, please see the previous discussion. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PART OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND FOR DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below) remains valid, with no changes needed. TS Debby continues to strengthen off the west coast of FL, while numerous convective rain bands progress across FL Peninsula. Brief tornadoes will remain possible within these bands through the afternoon and evening, with a lower, but still non-zero chances overnight. Thunderstorms capable of strong gusts are still anticipated this evening from eastern ID into southern MT and northern WY. Strong gusts are possible this evening from eastern SD into southern MN and northern IA, with some isolated hail possible as well. Isolated severe threat across the Northeast was discussed in recently issued MCD #1814, which mentioned that short-lived, strong storm cores capable of marginally severe hail will be the primary risk over the next few hours as they travel east/southeast across the narrow instability zone. ..Mosier.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. Read more