SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOS ANGELES AND SOUTHERN VENTURA COUNTIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific and CA coast, as a belt of strong midlevel northerly flow extends from the Northwest to southern CA. This large-scale pattern will reinforce a strong surface anticyclone over the Intermountain West, leading to a robust offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will be peaking from the morning into the afternoon/evening time frame, with most guidance depicting a LAX-TPH pressure gradient less than -13 mb and LAX-DAG gradient less than -6 mb -- both indicating a strong Santa Ana event across southern CA. This pressure gradient, combined with the strong deep-layer northerly flow directed toward the coast, will promote 30+ mph sustained northeasterly surface winds across the typical wind-prone Santa Ana corridors. Over the wind-prone mountains and valleys of southern Ventura and northern/northwestern Los Angeles Counties, gusts of 60+ mph will combine with RH decreasing into the lower teens/single digits for several hours -- leading to extremely critical fire-weather conditions atop receptive fuels. ...Northern/Central California... The tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow will yield another day of breezy/gusty northerly surface winds amid low RH across the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... On the backside of a broad/amplified large-scale trough centered overt the Rockies, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over northern/central CA -- along the southern periphery of strengthening surface ridging over the Northwest. This will yield 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of the western Sacramento Valley into the Coastal Range. These strong/gusty winds, coupled with 15-20 percent afternoon RH, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida. ...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL... Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement. This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes confined to the Gulf. ..Grams.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to southern Wisconsin. ...WI... Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening. This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s. While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection for a few hours this afternoon. ...Lower MS Valley... Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development within an environment that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/05/2024 Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FSM TO 25 SSE SGF TO 25 NNE SGF. ..WEINMAN..11/05/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-089-097-101-109-113-115-127- 129-131-143-149-050240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PIKE POLK POPE SCOTT SEARCY SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC043-067-091-153-209-213-215-225-229-050240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DOUGLAS HOWELL OZARK STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT Read more

WW 705 TORNADO AR KS MO 041930Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Extreme southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will affect the watch area this afternoon and evening. Strong winds aloft and a warm/moist environment will pose a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 40 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches the lower MO Valley. ..Darrow.. 11/05/2024 Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ACT TO 20 NNE DAL TO 20 SE DUA TO 30 S MLC TO 15 ESE MKO TO 5 NNE JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 ..JEWELL..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-079-089-127-135-042340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-113-119-139-147-159-223-231-251-257-277-379-387-397-449- 467-499-042340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FANNIN FRANKLIN HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL TITUS VAN ZANDT WOOD Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ACT TO 20 NNE DAL TO 20 SE DUA TO 30 S MLC TO 15 ESE MKO TO 5 NNE JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2208 ..JEWELL..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-023-041-061-077-079-089-127-135-042340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW DELAWARE HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH TXC085-113-119-139-147-159-223-231-251-257-277-379-387-397-449- 467-499-042340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN DALLAS DELTA ELLIS FANNIN FRANKLIN HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL TITUS VAN ZANDT WOOD Read more

WW 704 TORNADO OK TX 041655Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon across the watch area, with supercells and bowing lines capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. A strong tornado or two is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles northwest of Grove OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0706 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0706 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0706 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0706 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 706 TORNADO AR OK TX 042325Z - 050600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms occurring ahead of a cold front will continue to pose a threat for a few tornadoes this evening, with a strong tornado remaining possible. Otherwise, strong to damaging winds up to 60-70 mph will also be possible with thunderstorms occurring along a cold front. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of De Queen AR to 20 miles southwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704...WW 705... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW GMJ TO 55 ENE CNU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207 ..MOORE..11/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-097-101-113-115-127-131-143- 149-042240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK POPE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL MOC009-011-039-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-167-209-213-042240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON POLK STONE Read more

WW 705 TORNADO AR KS MO 041930Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Extreme southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will affect the watch area this afternoon and evening. Strong winds aloft and a warm/moist environment will pose a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 40 miles west southwest of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 704... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2207 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704...705... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and southwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...705... Valid 042054Z - 042230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704, 705 continues. SUMMARY...A favorable environment for a few tornadoes exists across northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells is moving through northeast Oklahoma. Surface winds have backed somewhat ahead of these supercells as a surface low continues northeast along the frontal boundary just south of Tulsa. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60 ahead of these storms. Shear has started to increase over the last hour on the KSRX VWP with 0-1km SRH around 225 m2/s2 and 0-500m SRH around 150 m2/s2 as of 2035Z. This increase in shear, combined with a pocket of moderate instability has provided an environment favorable for a few tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours. The greatest threat will be with any supercells which can avoid interference which in the short term favors the storm entering southern Cherokee County in Oklahoma. ..Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35259472 35729539 36119566 36699540 37289469 37029366 36349355 35509400 35179430 35259472 Read more

MD 2208 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 704... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Central to northeast Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 704... Valid 042138Z - 042345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern TX/WW 704, but becomes less clear further south into central TX where convection along a cold front has been slow to develop. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, supercells across the DFW area have struggled to become well organized despite a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some uptick in intensity has been noted over the past 20-30 minutes as these cells begin to interact with the approaching cold front/outflow boundary. A large hail threat will likely persist for the next hour before these storms fully transition into a somewhat more consolidated and balanced line. After this point, the potential for damaging/severe winds should increase downstream into northeast TX with an attendant threat for embedded circulations given the favorable low-level wind profile (0-1 km SRH remains at around 150 m2/s2). Ahead of this line, shallower convection developing along a weak confluence axis continues to percolate across northeastern TX. This activity resides on the western periphery of a somewhat more buoyant air mass (SBCAPE upwards of 2500 J/kg), but weak forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto how intense this convection will become. These storms reside well within the best low-level kinematic fields based on recent upper-air analyses. If a robust supercell can be established, a more prominent hail/tornado threat may emerge. Further south along the front into central TX, convective development has been meager with only a few attempts at deeper convection noted in satellite imagery. The downstream environment ahead of the front remains favorable for robust convection, which would likely develop quickly into an organized line, and latest CAM solutions continue to suggest that development across central TX is likely in the coming hours. Trends are being monitored, and watch issuance may be needed once robust initiation along the front becomes apparent. ..Moore.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31239554 31049583 30939610 30499759 30439812 30509841 30779858 30949852 31129839 31399805 31789763 32079736 32459714 33389667 33859576 33879514 33729478 33509453 33199451 31549533 31239554 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West through mid-week, before morphing into a cut-off low and ejecting into the Plains states by this weekend into early next week. As a result, a surface cyclone will develop over the Plains states late this week and progress eastward through the weekend while high pressure overspreads much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Cool conditions west of the Rockies, combined with widespread rainfall and moist low-level conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, will foster mainly quiescent fire weather conditions. The main concern for wildfire-spread potential will be over California during the mid-week time frame. On Days 3-4 (Wednesday-Thursday), the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level trough will overspread California, promoting deep-layer northwesterly flow over the northern/central California Valley region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Great Basin will encourage a surface pressure gradient across the state. As such, dry and breezy surface conditions are likely over parts of the Sacramento Valley, toward the San Joaquin Valley area Wednesday afternoon, where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry and strong offshore flow is also likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, from the Ventura Valley region to the Laguna Mountain range. 70% Critical probabilities are in place for Day 3 (Wednesday), where confidence is highest for prolonged strong offshore winds with low RH. ..Squitieri.. 11/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more