WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW TPL TO 35 NNW FTW TO 40 W ADM TO 25 S CHK. ..KERR..11/08/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 708 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-067-085-137-082340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TXC027-085-097-113-121-139-145-161-181-217-251-257-293-309-349- 397-439-082340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL COLLIN COOKE DALLAS DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE GRAYSON HILL JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO ROCKWALL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 708 TORNADO OK TX 081950Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North and North-Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, and potentially a few semi-discrete supercells, should continue to develop regionally through mid/late afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Fort Sill OK to 20 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow is expected to continue over the CONUS through next week. With the passage of multiple upper troughs, widespread precipitation is expected over much of the CONUS. An exception to this will be across parts of southern California and the southern Great Basin. Less precipitation in these areas could perpetuate ongoing dryness. Strong mid-level flow could support some dry and breezy conditions, though fuels are not as receptive and any fire-weather concerns are unlikely to be widespread. Periodic offshore flow is also possible through midweek across southern California. This could also support some dry and breezy conditions overlapping with dry fuels. However, forecast confidence in the strength of any offshore flow is very low. Thus, no probabilities have been issued as minimal fire-weather conditions are expected over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ..Wendt.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. Read more

MD 2220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081918Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm organization/intensity will continue over the next couple of hours. WW may become necessary later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of storms along a north-south surface cold front bisecting Texas at this time, with weaker/elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. Over the past hour or so, an increase in storm organization has occurred over the Big Country/western North Texas, where a narrow frontal band is now crossing Young and eastern Stephens/western Palo Pinto counties at this time. The pre-frontal environment across North Texas is characterized by a moist boundary layer, but with weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due to persistent/ongoing precipitation. Despite the marginal thermodynamic conditions however, flow veering and gradually increasing with height is contributing to shear profiles favorable for updrafts to organize -- even in spite of the less favorable thermodynamics. As such, as storms strengthen gradually this afternoon, in part due to weak/filtered heating and thus modest additional destabilization, severe risk -- mainly in the form of damaging winds and marginal hail, but also possibly including a tornado or two -- is expected to materialize. Greater tornado threat would likely require a more cellular pre-frontal warm sector storm mode, which seems rather unlikely at this time. As such, tornado threat should be confined to more weak/brief QCLS-type circulations. ..Goss/Guyer.. 11/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33219833 33609803 33469745 33029685 31849684 31299737 31399793 32649841 33219833 Read more

WW 0708 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0708 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...19z Update... A small Elevated has been added to portions of coastal southern New England for brief fire-weather conditions Saturday. A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass may allow transient overlap of wind gusts of 15+ mph with RH below 30%. Winds will quickly weaken into the late afternoon and evening, but low RH may linger. Given the state of dry fuels, an isolated fire-weather risk is possible. Elsewhere, dry conditions will likely persist over the Mid Atlantic and parts of southern California. However, surface winds are not expected to be strong enough to support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...19z Update... A small Elevated has been added to portions of coastal southern New England for brief fire-weather conditions Saturday. A dry and breezy post-frontal air mass may allow transient overlap of wind gusts of 15+ mph with RH below 30%. Winds will quickly weaken into the late afternoon and evening, but low RH may linger. Given the state of dry fuels, an isolated fire-weather risk is possible. Elsewhere, dry conditions will likely persist over the Mid Atlantic and parts of southern California. However, surface winds are not expected to be strong enough to support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low across the CONUS on Saturday. A deepening trough will bring widespread rain across much of the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue across southern California and across portions of New England. Both of these regions will be under building high pressure, keeping winds mostly light and fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will shift east/northeast into southern Quebec and the Northeast. A quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend southwest from a Great Lakes/southeastern Canada low into the Mid-South and east Texas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates, weak instability and weakening vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A few thunderstorms may develop near the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave upper trough approaches the region. Additional thunderstorms also are possible across south FL from late afternoon onward as moisture increases within a southeasterly flow regime. ...Coastal Louisiana... Forecast guidance continues to show some spread regarding the central position of Rafael on Sunday. However, ECMWF ensembles mostly still align with latest track guidance from the National Hurricane Center, keeping the low well offshore the Gulf Coast. As such, tornado potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will shift east/northeast into southern Quebec and the Northeast. A quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend southwest from a Great Lakes/southeastern Canada low into the Mid-South and east Texas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates, weak instability and weakening vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A few thunderstorms may develop near the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave upper trough approaches the region. Additional thunderstorms also are possible across south FL from late afternoon onward as moisture increases within a southeasterly flow regime. ...Coastal Louisiana... Forecast guidance continues to show some spread regarding the central position of Rafael on Sunday. However, ECMWF ensembles mostly still align with latest track guidance from the National Hurricane Center, keeping the low well offshore the Gulf Coast. As such, tornado potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the central Plains will shift east/northeast through the period, becoming positioned over the Upper Midwest vicinity by Sunday morning. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes ahead of this feature. Surface cyclogenesis is not expected to be strong, with low pressure over northwest KS actually weakening as it shifts northeast with time. Nevertheless, a broader area of low pressure will develop over the northern Plains to the Upper MS Valley. A warm front oriented over the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity will lift north through the period on increasing southerly low-level flow. This will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the Mid-South into the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys, with higher dewpoints further south across the Lower MS Valley. Warm 850 mb temperatures will result in poor low-level lapse rates and the boundary-layer will remain capped through the period. Midlevel lapse rates are also forecast to remain poor, and instability will be scant. Furthermore, strong vertical shear will remain displaced from the deeper boundary-layer moisture. While elevated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm advection regime from the western Gulf Coast to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region, severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Elevated area was expanded over parts of CT and MA. Gusty winds and brief reduction in relative humidity may support some fire-weather risk this afternoon. Farther south, wind gusts of 15-20 mph are being observed near the dry cold front over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible through the early afternoon before relative humidity begins to increase. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A quick moving shortwave and attendant dry cold front will traverse areas near the Mid-Atlantic into New England today. Westerly flow aloft will overspread the region with surface winds increasing to around 10-15 mph. Ahead of the front, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 30-35 percent will be possible. With the front passage, winds will shift to become northwesterly, remaining gusty but with steadily increasing relative humidity. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook, given uncertainty in sustained winds speeds approaching Critical thresholds. However, given Critical fuels, some brief and localized Critical conditions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. ..Guyer/Dean.. 11/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 8 16:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 8 16:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas through this evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential appears to be over north-central Texas. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern features a closed, temporarily cut-off, synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered over central NM. As a strong, basal shortwave trough pivots northeastward across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle today, the 500-mb low will shift east- northeastward toward CAO by 00Z. Overnight, the low should track north-northeastward, reaching the GLD vicinity by 12Z. Height falls should occur over central/north TX today, then becoming neutral to slightly rising overnight. The 11Z surface analysis showed a frontal-wave low near SWW, with a cold front south-southwestward between DRT-6R6. A warm front was drawn from the low through some rain-cooled air to near MWL, then east-southeastward over southern fringes of the Metroplex to between LFK-ESF. The low is expected to move northward to near the northeastern corner of the TX Panhandle by 00Z and occlude, while the occluded/cold front reaches western OK, north-central/central TX, to near LRD. The warm front should drift northward over north- central/northeast TX, with its progress slowed by increasing precip/convection to its north. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should get stacked with the 500-mb center over northwestern KS, with the cold front reaching east TX and the shelf waters off the TX Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to remain well-removed from land this period, moving generally westward over the central to west-central Gulf then slowing/meandering after this period. See NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity info on Rafael. ...North to central TX... An ongoing area of convection over parts of north TX and southern OK is expected to shift northward over increasingly elevated and less- unstable inflow parcels and weaken through midday. Meanwhile, closer to the cold front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next several hours through early afternoon, evolving into a nearly solid convective band with embedded supercells and bow/LEWP formations possible. This activity should shift eastward over central and north TX through early evening, offering at least marginal potential for all severe hazards. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector and along/north of the warm front. This activity should move northward to northeastward. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards (hail, damaging to severe gusts and mesoscale peak in tornado potential) also present. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest/ southeast very near or even across the DFW Metroplex. This will yield an increased severe threat from north to south into more- unstable inflow air, and within the southern part of the relatively high-vorticity gradient itself. Given the superposition of these foci and the expected favorable parameter space, the north-central TX part of the outlook is being upgraded for all hazards this cycle. Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints already are present in the warm sector, and will shift north slowly, in step with the warm front, before the main north-south band overtakes the region. This should occur during the afternoon when low-level, warm-sector instability is maximized away from convection. Despite modest lapse rates aloft (manifest in mid/upper-level stable layers sampled by the 12Z FWD sounding), a northwestward-narrowing, triangular corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE is expected. Veering winds with height are forecast to continue, with hodograph curvature/size largest along the warm front, and enough deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt in central/north TX, weakening southward and eastward) to support occasional supercell structures. Overnight, supportive large-scale ascent and the elevated LLJ each should shift northward away from the area, while the main band of convective- scale forcing shifts into east TX and weakens. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/08/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus continues to indicate a broad upper trough progressing into the West early next week, and then reaching the central states around mid-week. Nevertheless, 00Z ensemble spread remains large with both the degree of trough amplification and spatiotemporal details. The GEFS has trended towards less amplification over the West, instead favoring later over the Upper Midwest. The ECMWF ensemble mean favors greater amplification over the West, which is supported by its deterministic parent and UKMET/CMC guidance. Run-to-run continuity is poor with the degree/location of cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. With greater confidence in a surface ridge holding across the northern Gulf, modified moisture return appears more likely to be limited in the southern to central Great Plains through D5/Tuesday. The breadth of the warm-moist sector will probably enlarge by D6/Wednesday, yielding concern for some severe potential over the south-central states. But given poor predictability of synoptic-scale details, consideration of an area is premature. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A dampening shortwave trough will progress from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes. The trailing occluded/cold/quasi-stationary front arcing southwest, from the attendant surface low moving into southeast Canada, will serve as a focus for weak thunder activity. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit coverage, from the Lower OH Valley southwestward across the Lower MS to Sabine Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over far south FL by late afternoon into Sunday night as low-level moisture increases from the southeast. 10 percent thunder probabilities may reach coastal WA/OR by 12Z Monday as a northeast Pacific shortwave trough approaches. ...Coastal LA... 00Z ECMWF ensemble depicts increasing spread in the evolution of TC Rafael by early Sunday as the cyclone weakens. A small percentage support more of a northerly movement, similar to deterministic NCEP/CMC guidance. But the vast majority of the ECMWF ensemble members, along with the UKMET, support the favored NHC forecast. For now, TC-tornado potential appears likely to remain negligible. ..Grams.. 11/08/2024 Read more