MD 0266 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OR/WA
Mesoscale Discussion 0266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western OR/WA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262043Z - 262245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible later this afternoon. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Seasonably strong diurnal heating is underway across western OR into southwest WA early this afternoon, with temperatures expected to approach or exceed record highs in some areas. The 18Z soundings from MFR and OTX depict steep lapse rates within the 850-600 mb layer, and deep-layer wind profiles supportive of supercells. Moisture was lacking within these soundings, but surface observations suggest somewhat more favorable moisture into parts of western OR/WA, with dewpoints from the upper 40s to 50s F. Continued heating will support weak to moderate destabilization with time to the west of the Cascades, with SBCAPE potentially increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg by late afternoon. As an intense deep-layer cyclone well offshore of OR/WA moves east-northeastward this afternoon, a strong mid/upper-level jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, further strengthening deep-layer shear across the region. Isolated storms may initially develop near the coastal ranges and/or the western slopes of the Cascades, with increasing large-scale ascent supporting maintenance of storms as they spread north-northeastward with time. Favorable deep-layer shear will support development of a few supercells with time. Hail to the size of golf balls or larger may become the most prominent hazard, given the presence of elongated hodographs, moderate buoyancy, and rather cold temperatures aloft. Any sustained supercell could also pose some tornado threat, especially where low-level winds are locally backed due to terrain or storm-scale influences. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also accompany the strongest cells/clusters. A watch will likely be needed once storm initiation appears imminent. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 43312382 46132352 47112314 47712237 47672153 47052134 45492128 44312153 43612192 43032276 43312382 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were needed to removed thunder across southern OK/northern TX with this update. The Slight risk across the Northwest and Marginal Risk in south Texas were unchanged. Temperatures across the Portland Metro into the Columbia Gorge have warmed into the mid 60s to 70s under mostly sunny skies. Surface objective analysis and observed 18z soundings from MFR and OTX continue to indicate MLCIN in place across much of the region from the Cascades/Colombia Gorge westward. The surface front and main upper-level forcing remain offshore and are expected to move eastward across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings continue to indicate weakening of MLCIN along with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates as cooling aloft with the trough modifies profiles. This should allow for thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening, with potential for supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the western Gulf Coast States on Friday into Friday night, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night. ...East/south TX and LA... A below-average confidence forecast is apparent with extensive preceding convection late D1 through D2 ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough drifting east-northeast across south TX. Moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profiles should be prevalent ahead of this trough on Friday. Surface-based destabilization will probably remain weak but occur within a rich western Gulf airmass. Moderate low-level shear may be adequate for brief tornado and localized damaging wind threats through the period. These should be focused in the first half of the period along the TX coastal plain before shifting more into LA on Friday afternoon and lingering along the LA coast through Friday night. ...NE to WI... Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent within a stout EML atop a pronounced baroclinic zone from the Upper Midwest into the central High Plains. With potential for multiple, low-amplitude shortwave impulses migrating through the zonal flow regime along the international border and moving northeast across the central/southern Rockies, isolated to scattered convective development is anticipated by Friday evening/night. Most of this activity should tend to be elevated or become undercut as the baroclinic zone shifts southeast with a building surface ridge from the Canadian Prairies. Faster mid-level westerlies should occur across the southern MN to WI corridor, with stronger low-level mass response in NE. Setup should support an isolated large hail threat. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...KS/OK... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southwest Kansas into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. Recent guidance continues to show a strong signal for 20-25 mph winds across the southern the central Plains. Drier solutions that have captured recent moisture return and RH trends well across the southern Plains suggest 20-25% RH will be common by mid-afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible by early evening, but a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across a region with receptive fuels (as evidenced by ongoing fires across northern OK and central OK). ...Mid-Atlantic... Dry conditions are expected to prevail across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range are expected, but building surface high pressure should limit wind speeds. ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Widespread gradient winds between 20-25 mph are expected across a large swath of the northern Great Basin into central WY. Dry conditions currently in place across NV will spread northeast with RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Although widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, latest fuel guidance suggests ERCs are largely near to below seasonal values for late March, which should limit the overall fire potential. ...New Mexico... Only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing dry-thunderstorm risk area across New Mexico based on trends in recent CAM guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 26 17:56:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas with hail and wind as the primary hazards. Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe gusts are possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. ...South TX... Extensive deep convection will likely be ongoing across parts of south TX Thursday morning, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. How far south-southeast attendant cold pool/large-scale outflow is uncertain, with the 12Z NAM displaced farther northwest than the bulk of preferred guidance. This will have profound impacts on spatial extent and amplitude of D2 severe potential. Prior overturning/stabilization is likely to be much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM. Some severe wind/embedded hail threat may accompany the leading convection across Deep South TX and the Lower TX Coast, before it shifts offshore/weakens through late morning into midday. Trailing outflow will serve as a focus for renewed development beyond the higher terrain of northeast Mexico. Confidence is low in achieving substantial retreat/destabilization north of the outflow. But with persistence of weak mid-level troughing upstream and moderate mid-level southwesterlies, renewed severe potential may occur across parts of south TX Thursday evening/night with slow-moving clusters. Embedded supercells could pose a mixed severe hail/wind threat. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Primary change with this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk across parts of the Lower MO Valley for the late afternoon to early evening severe threat. Guidance is consistent with sustaining storm development along this portion of the warm front, downstream of the low-level thermal ridge emanating northeast from the central Great Plains. UH/reflectivity signals in 12Z HREF members are seemingly subdued relative to the potential thermodynamic environment characterized by a confined plume of MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This region will remain on the southwest fringe of moderate mid-level westerlies and hodographs appear modest. Still, adequate veering of the wind profile with height in conjunction with rather steep mid-level lapse rates should support at least an isolated large hail threat, peaking around early evening. ..Grams.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper low approaching the coast with mostly sunny skies over much of the region. A 100 kt 500-mb speed max will rotate through the base of the trough and overspread coastal OR/WA by mid evening as the upper low shifts east. An associated cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Cold-air advection in the mid levels and diurnal heating will contribute to steepening lapse rates, and the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy (250-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) by mid-late afternoon. Strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent and negligible CINH will favor isolated thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon and increasing in coverage through the early evening. Forecast hodographs indicate supercells are likely with the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) will be possible. The elongated and perhaps locally augmented hodograph in the vicinity of terrain favored areas (i.e., near the Columbia River with a modest easterly component) may enable a short-duration tornado risk. Severe gusts are also possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges as convection matures during the evening and gradually diminishing late. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... A weak disturbance will approach the Rio Grande through mid afternoon with a cirrus shield expected to persist through peak heating. A moist boundary layer sampled by morning area raobs and some filtered heating will promote widely scattered to scattered storms developing this afternoon. Relatively weaker flow in the low to mid levels will limit overall storm organization, but transient supercell/multicells are possible. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind threat. ...Southwest IA... A strengthening warm-air advection regime overnight from KS into MO/IA will likely lead to the development of widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of a warm front. Forecast soundings show elevated instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) developing as the profile moistens near 850 mb. A stronger storm capable of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, but the threat appears too limited to introduce low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Mosier.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more