SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10 to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts, isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast on Sunday, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms may produce severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of the northern Rockies into western North Dakota. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone over the Sabine River Valley will slowly meander eastward across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday. Moderate deep-layer shear on the eastern periphery of this feature will support organized cells and clusters across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft, closer to the upper cyclone center across MS/AL will support steepened midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km amid elongated hodographs. This will foster a corridor of moderate instability (up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Isolated to scattered cells, with perhaps a couple of supercells, are possible within this corridor from the western FL Panhandle into central/northern MS. Isolated strong gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Further east, convection may be a bit messier with ongoing showers or thunderstorm possible across parts of FL/GA Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop within low-level confluence bands and along sea breeze boundaries from the FL Peninsula into coastal GA/SC. While midlevel lapse rates will be weaker compared to further east, if stronger heating can occur, instability will be greater. A mix of multicells and a few supercells will bring a risk for isolated damaging gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A deepening upper trough will develop over the Northwest on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies/High Plains. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates amid elongated hodographs. As modest destabilization occurs over the higher terrain during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. This initial activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts. Convection will develop eastward into the adjacent High Plains from central MT into western ND during the afternoon and evening into a well-mixed boundary layer. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong downward transport and evaporative processes will foster strong wind gust potential. This will be especially true if any updraft consolidation into clusters occurs. ..Leitman.. 05/10/2025 Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..05/10/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-101740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-039-045-059-063-131-133-101740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-087-095-099-177-201-205-239-243-253-273-101740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN CLAY DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to cover this severe-weather potential. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated instances of hail are still possible. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Mosier/Barnes.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The elevated area was expanded east across northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota where overlap of sufficiently dry/drying fuels and winds near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will exist this afternoon. The limiting/mitigating factor will be relative humidity, which may not fall below 20%. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the existing forecast. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida, southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA... Multiple areas of strong storms are ongoing early this morning over the northeast Gulf of America, originating within a moist/unstable warm sector that continues to nudge closer to the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. As a moist low-level level influx continues, a severe threat will exist today particularly for coastal areas, with the northern extent of the severe risk not entirely clear. However, some severe risk should exist as far north as the weak surface low and warm front effectively makes a northward progression. Where sufficient destabilization does occur, moderately strong/veering wind profiles will support storms capable of damaging winds and some tornado potential. This appears to mainly be across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Non-supercell processes might even be a factor for funnel/brief tornado potential farther west-northwest across Alabama toward the frontal wave/surface triple point, in closer proximity to the upper low. Otherwise, more of a damaging wind/some hail risk will exist southward across parts of the Florida Peninsula. For short-term info for northeast Florida/southeast Georgia, see Mesoscale Discussion 757. ...Montana/Idaho... Strong heating and orographic lift over western Montana will favor widely scattered thunderstorms developing by mid-late afternoon. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow. This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana during the evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/10/2025 Read more

MD 0756 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0756 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into far southeast AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101208Z - 101415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized tornado and wind-damage threat may spread eastward this morning. DISCUSSION...A persistent storm cluster with embedded supercells is moving eastward this morning across the FL Panhandle, to the east of a surface low near Mobile Bay. Occasional upticks in rotation have been noted over the last hour as cells interact with a frontal zone that is very gradually moving northward across the area. Some additional northward progression of the front is possible through the morning, aided by the onset of modest diurnal heating downstream of ongoing convection. This would increase the area across the peninsula where an organized severe threat could evolve over the next 2-3 hours. A supercell currently south of Fort Walton Beach could pose a threat if it moves onshore, and additional cell development is possible within developing convection west of Panama City. Near and south of the front, favorable low-level moisture and veering wind profiles (with effective SRH increasing above 100 m2/s2) will continue to support localized tornado and wind-damage potential with any sustained supercells. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30988675 31098553 30998502 30578490 30018483 29938486 29758499 29538529 29608559 29758590 29898630 29988670 30198700 30988675 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0757 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0757 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...North FL into far southeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101258Z - 101430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS has moved inland across the FL Big Bend region this morning. This system has generally been subsevere thus far since moving inland and has shown signs of weakening, but filtered downstream heating of a moist airmass will result in MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg with time this morning. This could allow some intensification as the remnant storm cluster approaches northeast FL, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds. Storms developing ahead of this cluster could also approach severe limits through the morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29698296 30588205 31028161 31008129 30318123 30018120 29718114 29528125 29448161 29368196 29318228 29278265 29698296 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America next week. It appears that this will include at least a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific Coast. The first may already be in the process of developing eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next week. This may be followed by another significant trough digging inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend. The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid week. Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday night. In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two organizing severe storm clusters. Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater than 15 percent severe probabilities. Read more

MD 0755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTH AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...Far south AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100755Z - 101030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in isolated wind-damage and tornado potential is possible overnight. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a remnant MCS moving across the northeast Gulf vicinity, some low-level moistening is expected with time overnight near coastal AL and the FL Panhandle, to the east of a surface low that is forecast to track from east of New Orleans to near Mobile. As this occurs, a midlevel vorticity maximum rotating through a broad mid/upper-level trough/low will aid in renewed vigorous storm development near/east of the surface low, which is already ongoing south of Mobile. Veering wind profiles within the low-level warm advection regime will support organized convection. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of inland destabilization, but there will be some potential for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado for near-coastal areas, within the moistening and favorably sheared environment. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30578824 30758780 30748719 30718651 30618594 30518567 30288574 30008587 29858605 29758630 29728646 29748669 29808710 29918790 30038828 30398830 30578824 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains through St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward as strong southwesterly flow and troughing move onshore in the West. A lee low and surface trough will aide strong southerly winds over much of the Great Plains, while a cutoff low and cool/wet conditions persist to the east. Several hours of dry and breezy conditions will support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather potential over the Plains Sunday. ...Northern Plains and Midwest... As the ridge over the northern US shifts eastward, stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies deepening the lee trough. A broad surface cyclone should emerge, aiding in strong southerly winds over much of the Plains. Sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph, winds will overlap with temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal. Several hours of lower RH below 30% is expected. This should support widespread elevated fire-weather conditions from NE and the Dakotas to western MN and parts of IA. Near-critical conditions may also occur where the stronger winds interact with areas of locally lower RH and drier fuels for several hours Sunday afternoon. This appears most probable over parts of western MN and central NE. However, confidence in widespread sustained critical conditions is lower owing to marginal RH values. No critical areas were added, though this may change in subsequent outlooks with updated guidance. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging over the western US will continue to amplify today and tonight, as a blocking pattern with a cut off flow persists farther east. Strong southwesterly flow will begin to move overtop of the ridge and spread into the northern Rockies/Plains, deepening a lee cyclone/trough in southern Canada. This will support gusty southerly winds and some fire danger over the northern US. ...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... As the lee trough over the Rockies and southern Canada deepens, southerly low-level flow will increase across MT, the Dakotas and western MN. Ahead of returning surface moisture, several hours of low RH are expected through the afternoon. Area fuels have been mostly dry over the last several days, with little recent rainfall. With gusts to 15-20 mph, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. In addition to the dry and windy conditions, isolated high-based storms are possible over parts of central and eastern MT. With PWAT Values below 0.6 inches, significant rainfall is unlikely, though enough moisture likely supports some lightning risk. While the best storm coverage will be displaced from the most receptive fuels, a few strikes and gusty outflow winds are possible farther east where fuels could support some ignition potential. ...Southwest... Beneath the strong upper ridge over the western US, modest easterly mid-level flow will begin to impinge on parts of the Desert Southwest. Aided by local terrain, easterly gusts of 15-20 mph are possible through the day. With warm temperatures and little recent precipitation, afternoon RH values below 15% are expected, along with receptive fuels. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ..Lyons.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more