SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... Elevated fire weather conditions are beginning to emerge across the region with winds increasing to 15 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. A recent uptick in fire activity with ongoing fires across northern SC also points to the onset of fire weather conditions. This aligns well with morning guidance, which depicts elevated fire weather conditions spreading as far east as Chesapeake Bay. The Elevated risk area has been expanded to account for this recent trend. ...New Mexico... Large-scale ascent is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery across the Southwest ahead of a weak mid-level trough. 12 UTC soundings across AZ/NM sampled steep 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, which should support weak buoyancy (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE) later this afternoon as gradual moisture advection into southwest TX/eastern NM continues. The dry thunderstorm risk area has been shifted eastward to better align with where CAM guidance shows the best potential for convection with minimal rainfall. Dry thunderstorms are also possible further northwest into the Great Basin, but fuel conditions appear sufficiently moist to limit the overall dry-lightning threat. ..Moore.. 03/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today. A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to southward along the Oregon Coast by evening. Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by 21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur. ...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit organizational potential. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day 6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western CONUS and into the Plains. As such, no risk areas will be considered beyond Day 6/Monday. Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country, ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West. This feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity. Models continue to indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least until after dark/overnight. While some severe threat may evolve with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk area. Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of the developing low -- and associated cold front. Nonetheless, substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will support scattered thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared environment. By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should spread southeast of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing severe risk. Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface cold front advances. Destabilization ahead of the front will support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts late in the period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASK VICINITY...AND FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur from parts of East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and also across portions of the Nebraska vicinity overnight. ...Eastern Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across eastern portions of the southern Plains, in conjunction with the slow-moving southern-stream trough crossing the area. As the trough continues moving slowly east-northeastward, daytime heating away from ongoing clouds/convection will allow the airmass to destabilize, supporting additional convective development. Mid-level flow will remain rather weak across the area. However, ahead of the low, moderate low-level southeasterlies veering to southwesterly through mid levels should result in shear sufficient for organized/weakly rotating storms. Convection will spread into Arkansas/Louisiana through the afternoon and evening, accompanied by the risk for locally gusty winds, and possibly a brief tornado or two, warrant inclusion of low (5%) severe-weather probability at this time. ...Nebraska vicinity... As a weak frontal low shifts eastward out of the central High Plains into western Kansas, in response to a short-wave trough crossing the Rockies, elevated storms seem fairly likely to develop in a zone of focused warm advection northeast of the low, across the Nebraska vicinity. Relatively steep lapse rates combined with moderate mid-level lapse rates/instability and moderate mid-level southwesterlies suggest potential for a few stronger storms to produce hail, during the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US will gradually move eastward as an upper trough and strong jet begin to move offshore. A cold front will move over much of the Southeast with a dry air mass and high pressure in its wake. Over the west, a weak upper trough and low-level moisture will move into parts of the southern Plains supporting thunderstorm chances. ...Southwest and southern Plains... With the weak upper trough remaining relatively stationary beneath the upper ridge, another round of isolated diurnal storms will be possible across much of NM into west TX. Likely high-based, storms along the western edge of the more robust moisture return are unlikely to produce significant wetting rainfall. However, steep lapse rates and sufficient PWAT values (0.5-0.8 in) for weak buoyancy may allow for isolated lightning strikes within a region of dry and receptive fuels. Dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM. Ahead of the deeper moisture across parts of OK and KS, a few hours of locally elevated conditions are possible with dry southerly winds. While RH appears unlikely to reach critical criteria, southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and afternoon minimums near 30% will overlap with areas of very dry fuels. This may support some localized fire-weather concerns. ...FL... Relatively dry conditions are likely in a post-frontal air mass across parts of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon and evening. With light northeasterly winds and warm temperatures, inland RH values below 35% appear likely across central and western parts of the Peninsula. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong (generally less than 10 mph), occasional stronger gusts overlapping with the low RH and very dry fuels could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will continue to intensify as it shifts eastward into the central US today and tonight. A weak southern-stream trough will slide under the ridge over parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. A dry cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians beneath a broad upper trough favoring gusty winds and dry conditions over the east. Some fire-weather concerns are likely as isolated dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions overlap with areas of dry fuels. ...Appalachians... Westerly downslope winds are likely across portions of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. Warm temperatures and downslope drying will also contribute to low afternoon RH below 25-30% for much of the western Carolinas, northeast GA and western VA. RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts) will favor several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Southwest... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move underneath the upper ridge into parts of the Southwest. Mid and low-level moisture will gradually move west, reaching parts of NM and west TX. Weak upslope flow and ascent from the trough will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Dry sub-cloud layers will favor poor precipitation efficiency with weak buoyancy aloft. This could support a few dry thunderstorms with gusty winds. Fuels are highly receptive to fire starts with ERCs well above the 80th percentile over a large area. With little wetting rainfall and the potential for lightning ignitions, an Isolated dry thunder area will be maintained. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the southern High Plains, and into southern Texas, as well as over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern High Plains across southern Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing early in the period, as a slow-moving southern-stream trough moves eastward across northern Mexico and Texas through the period. Local risk for hail/wind may be ongoing with these storms. During the afternoon, isolated high-based convection may develop across parts of southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Despite modest CAPE/shear, the deep/dry boundary layer may support gusty/damaging winds with any stronger storm. Farther east, along the Rio Grande, storms will likely develop over higher terrain on the Mexican side of the river, and may shift into adjacent portions of Texas with time. Meanwhile, remnant outflow from earlier convection may focus new storm development, as moderate instability develops due to the moist boundary layer residing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Low-level southeasterlies veering with height, and increasing to 30-plus kt at mid levels, will support organized/rotating storms, the strongest of which will be capable of all-hazards severe potential. Risk will likely continue through the evening, spreading eastward into southeastern Texas with time. ...Middle Missouri Valley area eastward to the Lower Ohio Valley... As a warm front advances slowly northward across the central Plains and Midwest, several clusters of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop, and shift east-southeastward within the prevailing west-northwesterlies aloft. Isolated afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the north-central Kansas vicinity, where risk for a few strong wind gusts may occur, along with potential for hail. However, more widespread convection during the period is forecast north of the warm front. Steep lapse rates above the low-level stable air, and amply strong mid-level flow, suggests potential for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening. Supercells are expected west of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These may produce large hail, perhaps a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Seasonally strong upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast will shift east today as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates toward the OR Coast by late afternoon. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across this region and the associated synoptic cold front should arc from off the WA Coast-south along the OR Coast by 27/00z. Upper ridging has permitted boundary-layer moisture to increase/hold across both the interior Northwest, and west of the Cascades where surface dew points are currently in the mid 50s. While PW values are not forecast to be particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing will contribute to moistening profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to convective initiation. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures, and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE should approach 1000 J/kg within a favorably sheared environment for organized, rotating updrafts. Latest thinking is isolated-scattered robust convection will develop by 21-22z across western OR, immediately ahead of the strong forcing. This activity should grow upscale and lift north-northeast ahead of the approaching speed max. Profiles favor supercell development and latest HREF guidance supports this scenario. Hail should be common with this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large stones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with the strongest storms. While a brief tornado can not be ruled out, low-level shear does not look particularly favorable for more than an isolated report. Damaging winds are also possible with any of these supercells. Strongest storms should spread into WA during the early evening as the short wave ejects northeast. ...Lower Rio Grande River Valley... Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. Latest model guidance suggests a weak disturbance will approach the international border by mid day and this will draw a substantial moisture plume into south TX. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not particularly strong, some organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty winds or perhaps some hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection/precip is expected across this region which may disrupt/limit organizational potential. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...south-central into southeast Oklahoma to the Red River Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260409Z - 260615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will increase in coverage, and sporadic marginally severe hail may occur. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the diurnally driven cluster hail event over North Texas, the air mass remains unstable with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg extending into south-central OK this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are already developing well north of the warm front into OK, and this trend should persist given modest southwest flow around 850 mb aiding theta-e advection. This zone of weak lift is not expected to move much over the next several hours. However, this is also near the midlevel temperature gradient, and as such, it should be relatively easy to get further storm development. While not as favorable an environment as farther south, at least isolated marginally severe hail is forecast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35319798 34579571 34339511 34039472 33709484 33669644 33829711 34079745 34619785 34879810 35139816 35319798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Hail is the primary severe risk with storms across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma tonight. ...Southern Plains... Modest northwesterly mid-level flow continues across the central/southern Plains this evening. While latest water-vapor imagery does not depict any meaningful disturbance embedded within this flow, isolated thunderstorms have developed/matured across north-central TX (Metroplex) into south-central OK. Strong diurnal heating was instrumental in this development as temperatures warmed into the mid 80s; however, nocturnal cooling will negate the risk for surface-based convection. Latest thinking is low-level warm advection will become the primary instigator in convective development overnight as some increase in the LLJ is expected into the Red River region. A northwest-southeast corridor of elevated convection may ultimately materialize across southern OK into northeast TX as the boundary-layer decouples and updrafts become rooted at the top of the boundary layer. Hail is the primary risk, and this should be fairly isolated in nature, thus a MRGL Risk appears warranted the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/26/2025 Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...a small part of north-central Texas into far south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252145Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated, marginally severe storm or two may develop over a small part of North Texas, and perhaps into far south-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and radar indicate towering CU and deepening convective showers along I-35, especially from Dallas southward. Very little lift is present, though weak surface convergence is noted. Although the air mass is uncapped due to temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, convection has been fighting both dry air aloft and lack of a lifting mechanism. That said, further CU clustering / deepening is expected, and a storm or two is expected. Any storms that develop will have brief hail or locally strong gust potential, with relatively short longevity. The steep lapse rates and modest northwest flow may favor slow south/southeastward-moving cells affecting a limited area in the near term. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31639802 32729775 33419764 34139764 34489770 34679747 34729702 34459668 33089655 32119672 31389707 31209747 31279789 31639802 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 25 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more