SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 24 21:13:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0261 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 241846Z - 242215Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue across eastern Maine for the next few hours, with 1 inch/hour snowfall rates possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching stacked cyclone over the Great Lakes, low-level warm-air/moisture advection over eastern New England is providing increased ascent amid a sub-freezing troposphere. Saturation of the dendritic growth zone is supporting heavier snowfall, which has been observed over NH into southwest ME over the past couple of hours. Current thinking is that the primary snowband along the NH/ME border will continue to benefit from low-level convergence along an axis of 850-700 mb frontogenesis, which characterizes the nose of the stronger WAA within the dendritic growth zone. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates will be possible, as also shown by the consensus of the more recent high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 43457087 44037096 44657047 45666927 45936826 45636735 45076687 44606713 44216817 43756930 43457087 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more