SPC May 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SRN SC...SRN GA......SRN/WRN AL...CNTRL/ERN MS...CNTRL/ERN MT...WRN ND... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf Coast states on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be accompanied by some risk for severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts across parts of central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate little change to the general large-scale pattern through this period, with much of North America remaining under the influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing, with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast. As this occurs, broad downstream ridging will continue slowly eastward across the interior of North America, with the leading edge likely as far east as the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast by late Sunday night. To the south of this ridge, the center of a broad, initially quasi-stationary mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley, in response to the troughing digging into the Northwest. In lower levels, it appears that one initial weak low across the Canadian Prairies will weaken further, as surface troughing deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. At the same time, cool surface ridging, initially centered across the lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of this ridge, a broad area of lower surface pressure may continue developing inland of the north central Gulf coast, perhaps accompanied by some further boundary-layer moistening inland across parts of the eastern Gulf states. Seasonably high moisture content, though, may remain confined to a narrow plume southeast through south of the mid-level low, from south Carolina and Georgia coastal areas across the Florida Peninsula into the lower latitudes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states... Beneath the modest, difluent southwesterly flow, downstream of the mid/upper low, model forecast soundings continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts by Sunday afternoon. Just east of the broad, weak surface low centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, a belt of modest southerly 850 mb flow may contribute to low-level hodographs which may become marginally conducive to a tornado or two. ...North Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent in the presence of weak destabilization will become sufficient for at least scattered thunderstorm development. It appears that thermodynamic profiles, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear, may become conducive to storms with at least some potential to produce severe hail across the higher terrain of central Montana. As convection propagates northeastward off the higher terrain of central and southern Montana, across a more strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer, downdrafts enhanced by evaporative cooling/melting and downward mixing of stronger flow from aloft probably will contribute to a few strong to severe surface gusts. The latest NAM continues to suggest potential for one or two clusters with consolidating downdrafts and outflow, though now generally across parts of central/eastern Montana and, perhaps, into western North Dakota by late Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025 Read more
