SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland across the western US on Monday, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across the Great Basin in addition to potential for rain/snow showers. An increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in the region are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal today across the CONUS. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Some briefly Elevated conditions are possible in the Northeast ahead of the approaching front, but wetting rainfall will be expected by the afternoon. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible tonight in a narrow corridor across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. ...01Z Update... Although probably hindered to some extent by the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael over the central Gulf of Mexico, low-level moistening is ongoing within a southerly return flow around the western periphery of a prominent surface high slowly shifting eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard. This will continue overnight, as a mid-level cyclone emanating from the Southwest continues a slow northeastward acceleration across and northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley. Within this regime, upper support has weakened for a slow moving cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading central Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi. However, even as this convection diminishes, instability appears sufficient to maintain a risk for additional thunderstorm activity, aided by persistent weak low-level warm advection along/north of its stalling outflow boundary overnight. Farther north, weak conditional instability is probably maximized within a narrow plume of higher precipitable water content advecting across the lower Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys. Based on various model output, it appears possible that large-scale forcing for ascent, near the southern periphery of the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls associated with the mid-level low, may contribute to a band of weak thunderstorm development overnight. ..Kerr.. 11/10/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 9 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 9 22:24:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Generally speaking, fire weather concerns will be low this upcoming week. A fairly progressive mid-level flow will bring another mid-level trough across the eastern United States by midweek, ushering in a cooler airmass. Areas where critically low relative humidity may eventually overlap critically high wind include portions of the Great Basin as the aforementioned trough moves through. However, fuels should not be overly receptive. Elsewhere, longer-range guidance indicates a potential return of strong, northerly flow across southern California as another deep low develops across the Great Basin. This may result in an off-shore wind event next weekend -- just outside this forecast period. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Generally speaking, fire weather concerns will be low this upcoming week. A fairly progressive mid-level flow will bring another mid-level trough across the eastern United States by midweek, ushering in a cooler airmass. Areas where critically low relative humidity may eventually overlap critically high wind include portions of the Great Basin as the aforementioned trough moves through. However, fuels should not be overly receptive. Elsewhere, longer-range guidance indicates a potential return of strong, northerly flow across southern California as another deep low develops across the Great Basin. This may result in an off-shore wind event next weekend -- just outside this forecast period. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Modest changes were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Modest changes were made to the general thunder area based on current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations, is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast. ...Carolinas and the Southeast.... Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely. ...Pacific Northwest... As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore, steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong stability. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations, is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast. ...Carolinas and the Southeast.... Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely. ...Pacific Northwest... As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore, steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong stability. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes needed to ongoing forecast. Please see below for additional details. ..Marsh.. 11/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low on Sunday. A trough will traverse the Great Lakes region, with cooler and wetter conditions extending from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River Valley and up to the Northeast. Cooler post-frontal conditions will extend across much of the Plains. Lingering dry conditions will be possible across southern California, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A compact upper-level cyclone over the middle MO Valley is forecast to quickly translate eastward, reaching the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH valley Sunday evening. At the surface, low pressure and a trailing cold front will accompany the upper low, moving into southern Canada by early Monday. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are likely along the front from the OH Valley, to the Mid-South and ArklaTex. Primarily elevated and within weak buoyancy and limited vertical shear, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Additional scattered air mass storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas, southern FL and the Gulf Coast. ...Mississippi Valley... In the immediate wake of the departing upper-level cyclone, weak and broad troughing will persist over parts of the middle and lower MS Valley. A northeast to southwest oriented frontal zone will bound the western edge of a plume of seasonably high surface moisture with dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along and east of the front early Sunday. However, as the upper cyclone departs, forcing for ascent and stronger flow aloft will gradually diminish from west to east. Given the expected coverage of cloud debris and preceding precipitation, poor low and mid-level lapse rates are expected with sparse surface heating. This should limit diurnal destabilization to generally less than 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. While scattered thunderstorms are expected along and near the front through much of the day and into the evening poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will likely preclude severe potential. ..Lyons.. 11/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory. As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is not anticipated. ..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024 Read more