SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... Satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over south-central TX into northeastern Mexico, and a vorticity max over the middle coastal plain of TX. Largely displaced from incipient outflow-generated air from a couple of western Gulf thunderstorm clusters, southeasterly low-level flow is advecting richer moisture into southeast TX/western LA. Cloud breaks will lead to some heating from the middle to upper coasts of TX into western LA. Surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s near the coast to the mid 60s as far north as I-20, will contribute to 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per model forecast soundings. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a moist boundary layer and appreciable 0-3km CAPE, will support a conditional setup for several mini supercells. The main threats with this highly dependent mesoscale scenario would be a risk for a couple of tornadoes and localized damaging gusts. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this forecast due to low confidence in a few warm sector cells developing this afternoon. However, if isolated to scattered storms were to develop, the greatest potential severe threat would occur primarily in the 18-00 UTC period. This potential activity would likely diminish by early to mid evening owing to the loss of daytime heating. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/28/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 28 12:45:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest. ...Coastal Texas into Louisiana... A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest... Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight. Day 5/Tuesday looks to be a relative down day in terms of severe potential, with moisture beginning to return northward into the central U.S. ahead of the next system. Day 6/Wednesday, moisture will continue returning northward across the central U.S., though substantial differences in timing/evolution of the upper system exists between the (slower) ECMWF and (faster) GFS. However, the GEFS ensemble mean is slower than the operational GFS, not quite as slow as but more in line with the ECMWF -- and the Euro ensemble mean. Given this, confidence is high enough to proceed with introduction of a broad -- though areally uncertain -- 15% area. This system would appear to have the potential to produce another fairly widespread/all-hazards severe event, but will likely require a good bit of adjustment over the next few days. Beyond Day 6, confidence in evolution of the large-scale features diminishes further, due to the aforementioned differences between operations runs of the global models. As such, no areas will be delineated beyond Day 6. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... An evolving/slowly amplifying mid-level trough is forecast to shift slowly across the central U.S. Sunday. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will sweep southeastward across the central U.S. as the low deepens/advances, and should extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... A broad/moist but initially capped airmass is forecast to expand across much of the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday, ahead of the advancing cold front. Daytime heating, and continued northward flux of low-level moisture will result in a moderate destabilization. Scattered storms may be ongoing across portions of Missouri northeastward to the Wisconsin area at the start of the period, and possibly in a more isolated manner southwestward into Texas. Local severe risk may accompany this early-day convection. The aforementioned destabilization that is expected should support renewed storm development near the advancing cold front -- initially from Illinois southwestward to East Texas, and then spreading eastward/expanding in coverage with time. Along with the favorable thermodynamic environment within which the storms will be evolving, highly favorable shear will also exist, with low-level southerly/southwesterly flow veering and increasing substantially with height yielding curved -- and then elongated -- hodographs. Supercells are expected within this environment, and very large hail is expected given the cold air/steep lapse rates through the mid troposphere. Along with the hail risk, damaging wind gusts are expected -- particularly where upscale growth into bands occurs. Additionally, this setup appears very favorable for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/potentially long-lived. Risk will spread eastward with time into the evening/overnight. Some diminishing of the risk should occur late into the upper Ohio Valley, but vigorous storms and all-hazards risk will likely continue through the end of the period across the Tennessee Valley/Gulf Coast states. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat is forecast through this evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is also possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska later this evening/night. ...Western Gulf Coast States... Southern-stream upper trough is currently located over northeast Mexico/far West TX. This feature is forecast to shift slowly east across south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley by the end of the period as modest mid-level flow translates across the northern Gulf Basin. Low-latitude nature of this feature should result in deeper convergence holding offshore much of the period. This is especially true given the multiple ongoing MCSs that are noted from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Substantial convective overturning has occurred inland and air mass recovery will be limited across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Even so, adequate buoyancy will likely exist across far southeast TX into southern LA such that a few robust storms could emerge within the larger complex of convection. Forecast soundings suggest a brief tornado or wind gust will be the primary risks, and this appears to be a low probability threat. ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska... Northern Plains upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit today as heights fall across the Dakotas ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests one notable short wave is located over eastern MT. This feature will advance east today and sustain a broad swatch of low-level warm advection along a corridor from MN into northern lower MI. In the wake of the disturbance, surface pressures will build over SK/MB into the Dakotas and force a cold front to a position from southwest MN-central NE by 29/00z. While warm advection will be responsible for multiple bouts of elevated convection, any surface-based thunderstorm development should be noted along/ahead of the cold front as boundary-layer temperatures will warm rapidly and 0-3km lapse rates will steepen. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon along the wind shift over NE and high-based convection should develop. Gusty winds and hail are the primary concerns with this isolated activity. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is maintained into this region; however, extensive convective overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is maintained into this region; however, extensive convective overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 27 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern KS into extreme southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272051Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon or early evening. DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus is deepening this afternoon across west-central KS, in the vicinity of a diffuse surface boundary. Some increase in shallow cumulus has also been noted across northeast KS into far southeast NE, where airmass recovery is underway in the wake of morning convection. In the short term, the greater chance for storm development may reside within the very warm and well-mixed environment from west-central into northern KS, in the vicinity of the surface boundary where CINH is diminishing. Any development in this area would be high-based, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and modest effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) could support a few stronger storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail by early evening. Farther northeast into northeast KS/southeast NE and vicinity, a more favorable conditional environment may evolve by early evening, with relatively backed flow, moderate deep-layer shear, and somewhat richer boundary-layer moisture. However, in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, potential for surface-based storm development within the initially capped environment is uncertain and could remain relatively limited. Should robust convection develop in this area, a supercell or two could evolve and pose an organized severe threat. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, due to the potentially limited coverage of the severe threat across the region. However, a watch would become increasingly possible if observational trends begin to support development of multiple severe storms by early evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38800010 39399914 40539650 40939562 40889524 40609501 40409501 39959506 39579513 39159556 38389793 38099910 38069958 38159983 38469994 38800010 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Precipitation chances across much of the CONUS will generally limit fire weather concerns this weekend and through much of next week. Areas of the Southwest and southern High Plains will remain relatively dry, however. While model differences are evident, fire weather concerns will likely be focused in the southern High Plains vicinity over the next few days as a more progressive upper-level pattern develops. Confidence in the details of this pattern are moderately high through next Tuesday. Thereafter, confidence is currently low. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will begin to increase this Saturday from parts of New Mexico into western Texas as the initial shortwave trough ejects into the region. Though winds will weaken some, fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday in New Mexico to near the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Shortwave ridging will then develop over the region next Monday. Winds are currently expected to be light enough that the critical fire weather probability is low. Model differences in the evolution of the upper-level pattern have continued over the past several model cycles for Tuesday into late next week. The ECMWF shows a more pronounced trough in the West whereas the GFS develops a stronger trough later in the week. At least for Tuesday, both model solutions would lead to an increase in fire weather concerns as a lee trough develops. The degree of the fire weather threat will hinge on the strength/evolution of the trough. After Tuesday, predictability decreases markedly. Model trends will continue to be monitored as some areas of critical fire weather potential could emerge. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more