SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further, this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High Plains by Thursday morning. ...Southern Louisiana... Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front. While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE) suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where buoyancy could be locally greater. ...West/Northwest Texas... Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be possible with this activity. ...Pacific Northwest/northern California... With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into far western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to shift east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across North Texas toward the ArkLaTex, with an increasingly moist airmass across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon. Current impressions are that a surface-based severe risk should increase into Thursday midday and early afternoon across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but perhaps more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected, contributing to upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could occur. Particularly for east/southeast Texas, strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 40-50 kt effective shear and 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells, including related damaging wind and tornado potential. Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... In the southern stream, a lead shortwave trough initially over east Texas on Wednesday is expected to steadily weaken toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, while a secondary and more prominent shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas Wednesday night. ...Southern Louisiana... Some thunderstorms may linger Wednesday morning from near the middle/upper Texas coast into Louisiana. It is not entirely clear how far north the warm sector will develop, but it is possible that modest instability develops across far southern Louisiana during the day, although weakening mass field trends would suggest that the main warm/moist sector will remain offshore. If the airmass does modestly destabilize inland, a few strong storms could occur given that moderately strong deep-layer/low-level shear will exist near the warm front. Current thinking is that organized severe potential will remain limited, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ...West/northwest Texas... Related to the approaching shortwave trough, steadily increasing forcing for ascent via DPVA/warm advection will arrive late Wednesday night. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and minimal buoyancy could potentially support isolated elevated thunderstorm development by daybreak (12z) Thursday. ...Pacific Northwest/northern California... A few near-coastal thunderstorms could occur as a shortwave trough/frontal band approaches the coast and mid-level lapse rates regionally steepen. ..Guyer.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely over much of central into eastern Texas late in the day and overnight, with isolated severe hail or gusty winds. ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive upper trough will move across the West Coast today, entering the Great Basin by evening. Strong cooling aloft will accompany this system as it move toward UT and AZ by 12Z Wednesday. To the east, a ridge over the Rockies will break down as it pushes east into Plains late, with a developing shortwave trough over the southern Plains as a speed max move out of NM. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes, with lobes extending into the Southeast, and into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough will roughly parallel I-35 in TX during the day, with a cold front extending from eastern TX toward the middle TX Coast by Wednesday morning. Southeast winds ahead of this front/trough will result in destabilization, and scattered thunderstorms late in the day and overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into AR this morning within a warm-advection zone. Additional storms may develop southward into northern TX along the cold front, aided by both cooling aloft and boundary-layer heating. Shear will not be strong with this system, but lapse rates will steepen, especially late in the day into central TX. Here, 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE may develop, with storms likely to increase in coverage along the front by around 00Z. Overall, this setup appears to favor substantial coverage of thunderstorms as moisture streams northwestward toward the front. A cell or two may produce large hail along the southern flank of the line, possibly near the Austin/San Antonio vicinity late in the day. Otherwise, a linear mode is expected as the front continues east, with perhaps locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Little lightning activity is ongoing this evening across the CONUS, with a few flashes noted just off the northern CA Coast earlier. Weak levels of elevated instability ahead of the primary upper trough may support sporadic flashes through tonight, mainly over northern CA. A greater chance of thunderstorms will occur over parts of OK and northern TX, as low-level moisture spreads north beneath gradual midlevel cooling overnight. The 00Z FWD sounding shows a deepening moist boundary layer, though capped. This capping inversion will cool/moisten with time, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing. The strongest lift will be north of the surface warm front, from central into eastern OK into western AR. Light showers were already evident as of this writing along and north of I-40, and sporadic lightning may occur after about 03Z. ..Jewell.. 12/24/2024 Read more