WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 616 TORNADO DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 091015Z - 091800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Much of New Jersey Southeast New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Eastern and Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this morning into the early afternoon as a warm front advances northward across the Watch area. Several supercells will likely develop and the stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for tornadoes. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the more intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Monticello NY to 50 miles south southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 615... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1872 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...northern Virginia...Maryland Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090838Z - 091145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...The potential remains for brief tornadoes tonight, mainly from northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front well into PA, where low-level winds remain backed and are now gusting to 25-30 kt out of the southeast. Theta-e has increased with the passage of the warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints and temperatures of 77-80 F. Meanwhile, area VWPS indicate that low-level shear remains quite favorable for brief tornadoes, with 0-1 km SRH values over 200 m2/s2. Recent radar trends indicate increasing storms just east of the low, where enhanced lift is interacting with the still warm and unstable air mass. Given current trends, growing showers could become supercells over the next several hours, with a tornado risk. In addition, other convection interacting with the warm front farther north may also attain rotation. As such, the tornado watch continues, and areas just north of the ongoing watch may need to be addressed later this morning as the air mass, and lift, remain favorable. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38397820 38567829 39137844 39757818 40327756 40887605 40807558 40537528 40177534 39427574 38677609 38307619 37967685 37967722 38287796 38397820 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OAJ TO 30 E GSB TO 35 ENE RWI TO 30 ESE RZZ TO 40 S RIC TO 10 NE RIC TO 25 N RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 20 SSE SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090840- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090840- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OAJ TO 30 E GSB TO 35 ENE RWI TO 30 ESE RZZ TO 40 S RIC TO 10 NE RIC TO 25 N RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 20 SSE SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090840- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090840- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 615 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 082235Z - 091100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Eastern North Carolina Central and eastern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 635 PM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Convective bands with embedded supercells and the potential for a few tornadoes will persist overnight and spread northward from North Carolina into Virginia/Maryland with the remnants of tropical cyclone Debby. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Martinsburg WV to 35 miles east of Goldsboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 614. Watch number 614 will not be in effect after 635 PM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 17035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms (gusts, perhaps hail) are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the south- central High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the persistent Southwestern ridging that is being weakened by a monsoonal trough will redevelop a closed high over central/west TX through day 2. A height weakness will remain from parts of AZ across the Four Corners to southern CO, through which small, collectively generated/enhanced vorticity lobes should move slowly. Farther north, a somewhat blocky, slow-moving pattern will be characterized by gradual breakdown of a Rex configuration now over western Canada, with an undercutting stream of nearly zonal flow across the Northwest and north-central Plains. This will converge into a belt of cyclonic flow around a substantial mid/upper cyclone -- now centered over the northern Lake Superior/Lakehead region of northern ON. Through the day-2 period, the low should pivot across northeastern ON to western QC south and southeast of James Bay, as a series of small shortwaves rotate through the cyclone's western/southern sectors. In response to these developments, the rapidly decaying, open-wave remnants of Debby should be absorbed into a baroclinic zone and ejecting away from the Northeast by the start of this period, leaving behind a cold front from central New England southwestward down the Piedmont in NC/SC to central GA and coastal LA. This boundary should become a diffuse warm front from LA northwestward across southeast/west-central TX to east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from the near the Hampton Roads area southwestward over southern GA and the western FL Panhandle, arching northwestward from southern LA across the TX Panhandle and into a low over southeastern CO/western OK Panhandle region. ...Central to south-central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible in a corridor extending southeastward from near the low, along the front, and off the nearby Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide. Mid/upper support may be present in the form of a small perturbation or two migrating from the Four Corners region. Activity should develop during mid/late afternoon as boundary-layer convergence near the low and heating of elevated terrain combine to remove MLCINH, along the northwestern fringe of a plume of returning low-level moisture along and south of the warm front. Forecast soundings indicate surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s and a deep troposphere will support MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, atop a well-mixed subcloud layer. This area will have generally weak low-level speeds, but strong veering of winds with height under the southern fringe of favorable mid/upper winds, with 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes. As such, organized multicells and perhaps brief supercells are possible, with isolated severe gusts and hail. Farther north/northwest across northeastern CO and central/eastern WY, an isolated, high-based, strong-severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out -- moving out of higher terrain of the Bighorns, Laramie Range or northern Front Range/Cheyenne Ridge region -- beneath stronger mid/upper flow and greater deep shear. However, lack of more-robust moisture, and convective-coverage uncertainty, preclude an unconditional outlook at this time. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Delmarva northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Northeast... The remnants of Debby will move across parts of the central and northern Appalachians, and across the adjacent Atlantic coastal plains today. An associated low-level speed max of 40 to 50 knots will move northward from the Mid-Atlantic this morning into southeastern New York by early afternoon. This feature will contribute to strong low-level shear within a very moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings around midday from the Delmarva northward into southeast New York have surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 200 to 300 m2/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat. Any cells that develop in or near the low-level speed max could be associated with a tornado threat. In addition, a potential for marginally severe wind gusts, will develop and gradually shift northward across the region today, eventually affecting parts of western New England by late afternoon. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Recent short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of storms will develop near the northern edge of instability, south of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This convection is forecast to move southward during the afternoon, reaching parts of the middle Texas Coastal Plain by early evening. The moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090440- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090038Z - 090245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues with supercells this evening. DISCUSSION...Remnants of Debby have moved well inland and the center of circulation is now located over western NC, east of CLT. LLJ is strengthening across the middle Atlantic with latest model guidance suggesting this will continue through sunrise as LLJ translates into northern VA/MD/southern PA. Latest VAD data supports this with 0-3km SRH now in excess of 300 m2/s2 at LWX. Numerous small supercells are embedded within a larger precip shield, supported by moist low-level warm advection. Radar data suggests several of the more robust circulations have possibly produced tornadoes at times. While strong shear persists across portions of the Carolinas, with time the primary focus for organized supercells will begin to shift north across VA into MD. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35447858 39567876 39567614 35437609 35447858 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more