WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N NIR TO 35 W HOU TO 50 ESE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-071-123-157-167-175-201-239-255-291-321-391- 469-481-250940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS DEWITT FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON KARNES LIBERTY MATAGORDA REFUGIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-335-350-355-250940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS Read more

WW 713 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 250530Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1130 PM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread slowly east-southeastward across the middle/upper TX Coast through early Christmas morning. The strongest convection will be capable of producing large hail generally around 1-1.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds up to 55-65 mph. A brief tornado remains possible with any persistent supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Victoria TX to 40 miles north of Galveston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 712... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

MD 2279 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250502Z - 250700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail remains possible across much of the region. Some additional severe potential possible over the Middle Texas Coast and another watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway from the TX Hill Country into Southeast TX as thunderstorms along the front begin to interact with prefrontal cellular/supercellular development. This interaction will likely lead to gradually diminishing storm strength across much of the region over the next hour or two. Until then, cellular prefrontal development across much of the region will likely remain strong to occasionally severe, supported by steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. The only exception is from Karnes/Dewitt Counties northeastward into Fayette County, where the strongest storms are currently ongoing. Here, downstream buoyancy may be high enough for storms to maintain surface-based character as the frontal interaction occurs, leading to upscale growth and a progressive convective line. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough could contribute to this evolution as well. The resulting convective line would likely push southeastward to the Middle TX Coast with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail. Given this potential, a downstream watch may be needed shortly. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29089526 28139647 27779736 27889779 29019816 30119763 31049618 31529462 31199385 30359412 29089526 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0713 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 712 SEVERE TSTM TX 250015Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday night from 615 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells will pose a threat for large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter this evening. Eventual upscale growth into a line may result in some threat for severe/damaging winds. A tornado or two also appears possible this evening with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles east southeast of Lufkin TX to 45 miles west southwest of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2277 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and east/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250109Z - 250245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage along a northeast/southwest-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone draped across central and east/southeast TX this evening. A cold front is also approaching from the northwest, and is beginning to catch up to the northern portion of the confluence zone. Here, congealing outflow is favoring localized upscale growth, and damaging winds will be the primary concern. The one exception is a persistent semi-discrete supercell ahead of the line which will pose a risk of large hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) in the near term. Farther south, regional VWP data indicates 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly 0-6 km shear, oriented oblique to the pre-frontal confluence zone. Given this shear orientation and increased separation from the approaching cold front, discrete/semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk of large hail (some up to 1.75 inches), with damaging winds also possible. With time, increasing storm development will favor upscale growth, and the severe-wind risk will become the main threat before convection gets undercut by the front. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30879678 31699602 31909576 32079531 32059483 31829466 30089623 29649707 29709751 29879780 30359748 30879678 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-149-161-185-201-225-287- 289-291-293-313-331-339-347-373-395-401-407-453-455-471-473-477- 491-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO FAYETTE FREESTONE GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241947Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in convective intensity is anticipated through the afternoon and early evening hours across central Texas. Sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in the short-term (next 1-3 hours) with watch issuance possible later this afternoon as the severe threat becomes more robust towards the TX Coastal Plain. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection has been slowly developing along a southeastward-moving cold front across northern to central TX. Modest destabilization and unfavorable storm mode/morphology have modulated convective intensities so far with only 0.25 to 0.5 inch hail reported via mPING. Broken cloud cover ahead of the front has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s, which is promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg across central TX. New convective towers/cells are developing to the southwest along the front into this more buoyant air mass, which should favor more intense convection compared to what's been observed in recent hours. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the front will promote upscale growth into a line with time, but prior to this occurring a few more intense cells may pose a large hail risk, possibly as large as 1.0-1.5 inch. Convective intensity is expected to gradually increase through the late afternoon and evening amid continued diurnal heating and northward moisture flux. Watch issuance may eventually be needed this afternoon as convection intensifies, though timing remains uncertain. ..Moore/Hart.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32329728 32739679 32959636 33089601 33059570 32929554 32739547 32499545 32249550 32019567 31829597 31569654 31349708 31119764 31019809 30999845 31109867 31189879 31299882 31459877 31659836 31869796 32089758 32329728 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more