Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to Alabama later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and southern Mississippi Central and northern Louisiana Western Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 12/28/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to Alabama later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and southern Mississippi Central and northern Louisiana Western Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 12/28/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 28 07:10:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 28 07:10:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor over the mid Mississippi Valley. This feature will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain in the central Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama. Most of the airmass is weakly unstable. However, the southern edge of a mid-level jet is located in the central Gulf Coast region, which is creating moderate deep-layer shear. This, combined with backed southeasterly flow at the surface and veering winds with height, could be enough for a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two with supercells that persist. The severe threat is expected to diminish as instability drops across the region. ..Broyles.. 12/28/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 27 21:54:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272116Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815 32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734 30098841 30258926 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Several mid-level shortwave troughs are expected to traverse the southern CONUS during the upcoming week. These troughs are embedded in zonal to slightly northwesterly flow, and this longwave flow may amplify towards the end of the period. The surface response to these shortwave troughs may result in a few periods of fire weather concerns through the week. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move across southern Plains on Monday/D4. This should result in breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains, and dry downslope flow should result in low RH during the afternoon. Fuels in the region are at least modestly dry, and therefore a 40% Critical area has been maintained in this outlook. Past Monday, a cold front is expected to move through the southern High Plains, which should keep fire concerns in the region at bay for the rest of the period. Across the intermountain west, surface high pressure may become established by Monday, which would set up offshore flow and associated drying across southern California from Monday through the end of the period. Currently, rule-of-thumb pressure gradients (e.g., LAX-TPH and LAX-DAG) look to be generally marginal for significant wind concerns, though periods of stronger offshore flow are possible with low RH, particularly on Wednesday/D6 and Thursday/D7. Additionally, fuels in the region may be receptive to fire spread, given little precipitation in the last 30 days. Given the low confidence in the strength of the surface flow, will hold off on introducing highlights in southern California for now, though some may be needed if confidence increases in stronger surface flow. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Guidance has trended southwestward with a northwesterly 850 mb jet across part of the south-central CONUS tomorrow afternoon. This has led to a trend for increasing wind speeds across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Latest guidance suggests the potential for gusts to 25-35 mph during the afternoon. In addition, fuels in this region are modestly dry, with 10-hour fuel moisture values near the 5th percentile. Given the upward trend in wind speeds, have elected to introduce a small Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains on D2/Saturday before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into the Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Some strong northwesterly breezes will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Latest fuels guidance indicates that fuels within this region will not support wildfire spread, precluding need to include areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...20Z Update... Only minor adjustments to the Marginal and general thunderstorm areas based on current observation/activity in parts of southern Louisiana. Additional convection is developing in the wake of this morning's activity in eastern/southern Mississippi. With the modest destabilization that has occurred this afternoon, these storms will be capable of a marginal wind/tornado threat. Further details available in the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the MS Valley is forecast to continue to amplify as moves into the southeastern/eastern US Sunday. Strong mid-level flow ahead of the trough and a deepening surface low will overspread a moistening air mass from the Carolinas to the Atlantic Coast. Weak to moderate buoyancy and strong deep and low-level shear will support a risk for strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ...Southeast... One or more broken bands of storms are expected to be ongoing early Sunday morning across parts of AL or western GA ahead of the cold front trailing the surface low through the OH Valley. As the upper trough progresses eastward, gradual reintensification of this convection is expected through the early afternoon as moderate height falls overspread lower to middle 60s F surface dewpoints into parts of the Southeast and the Carolinas. Additional storms are possible ahead of the primary band with some diurnal heating. However, lingering cloud cover and the rapid low-level temperature advection ahead of the low is expected to keep cloud cover relatively dense, limiting buoyancy (max of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE). This is especially so with northward extent where quite limited instability is likely into southern VA and the Mid Atlantic at the nose of the low-level moisture plume. Still, relatively moist surface conditions will allow for robust convection across the risk area with a mix of line segments and a few semi-discrete supercells given favorable deep-layer shear of 40-60 kt. The strong mid and low-level flow will support a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with the stronger storms into the evening, before weakening buoyancy reduces the overall severe risk. ... Upper OH Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection atop low 50s F dewpoints may steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for marginal diurnal destabilization of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may support a risk for a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024 Read more

MD 2291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Mississippi into western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271832Z - 272100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes will persist into the afternoon hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms persist along the MS/AL border, near the Gulf Coast, and these storms have shown some brief bouts of low-level rotation over the past several hours. Regional VADs across eastern MS into AL show gradually shrinking hodographs as the low-level jet continues to drift northeast, away from the warm sector. However, a robust mid-level trough is beginning to overspread the southern MS Valley, which may help preserve a favorable deep-layer shear field along the Gulf Coast during the afternoon. Continued surface heating may support MLCAPE approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range given mid 60s F dewpoints near the coast. Overall, storms should continue to oscillate in intensity through mid afternoon, with continued instances of low-level rotation possible. Isolated damaging gusts and tornadoes remain the main threats. The most immediate threat exists with storms approaching the Mobile Bay area. However, convection has attempted to intensify over far east-central MS with the approach of the mid-level trough. Confidence in these storms reaching severe limits is overall lower, but a stray damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms that intensify in this regime. Either way, the isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30218984 31398957 32048931 32698896 33048871 33408835 33248802 32728788 32038767 31408739 30898727 30548728 30278757 30118862 30218984 Read more