WW 719 TORNADO TX 281615Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southeast Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify rapidly through the afternoon, with a few severe storms expected. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, but a few tornadoes are also possible later today as winds aloft strengthen. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of Waco TX to 40 miles south of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 717...WW 718... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE TYR TO 20 ESE GGG TO 15 NW SHV. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...JAN...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033- 037-039-041-043-047-049-053-055-059-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-125-127- 281840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT IBERVILLE JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN LIVINGSTON MADISON NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS UNION VERNON WASHINGTON WEBSTER WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA WINN Read more

WW 718 TORNADO LA MS TX 281335Z - 282100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana Southern and central Mississippi East Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 735 AM until 300 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several regenerative areas of thunderstorms are expected to form in the warm sector and shift northward to northeastward over the watch area through early afternoon, with tornadoes, damaging gusts and sporadic large hail possible. Though the greater strong-tornado threat may be later this afternoon and evening, a few are possible in this region, in the meantime. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Lufkin TX to 65 miles east of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 717... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ACT TO 30 S FTW TO 15 ENE TXK. ..SQUITIERI..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-057-073-091-099-139-281640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE MILLER NEVADA UNION TXC035-037-063-067-139-213-217-251-257-315-343-349-423-459-467- 499-281640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS ELLIS HENDERSON HILL JOHNSON KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS NAVARRO SMITH UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 717 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 281125Z - 281800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Arkansas Extreme southeastern Oklahoma North-central and northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday morning from 525 AM until NOON CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasing coverage and intensity of elevated thunderstorms, with potential for large hail, are expected through the remainder of the morning, with activity spreading from the DFW Metroplex vicinity into the Arklatex. A separate tornado threat may evolve later this morning in or near the southern/eastern parts of this watch, and would be addressed then and separately. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Stephenville TX to 10 miles north northeast of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Edwards Read more

MD 2297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281438Z - 281615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central portions of Texas. Severe wind and hail appear to be the predominant threats with the stronger storms that develop, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is expected to gradually warm through the morning (given diurnal heating), where upper 60s F surface dewpoints are in place. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer ascent are overspreading central TX in tandem with the mid-level trough and associated 70-90 kt upper-level jet streak. As such, thunderstorms are already developing along a Bosque-Kendall County line ahead of the cold front, and they should continue to gradually organize/intensify further throughout the morning. 50+ kt effective bulk shear is already present over the warm sector, and shear (as well as boundary-layer based buoyancy) should only increase with time. Supercells are possible within this developing band of storms, as well as with any storms that can develop and mature ahead of the line, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. Given relatively steep lapse rates amid curved and elongated hodographs, severe hail and wind are likely with the stronger storms. Low-level hodographs are not particularly large (evident via the GRK VAD). However, given rich low-level moisture and strong deep-layer forcing/shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained supercell preceding the main line of storms. A WW issuance will likely be needed over the next hour or so. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30949556 30339580 30059667 29979765 29989837 30239858 30909832 31469797 31779719 32019619 31929566 31539555 30949556 Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0718 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SEP TO 15 NNE TXK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296. ..GRAMS..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC057-081-091-281440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPSTEAD LITTLE RIVER MILLER TXC035-037-063-067-139-143-159-213-217-221-223-251-257-315-343- 349-379-423-425-449-459-467-499-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS ELLIS ERATH FRANKLIN HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS JOHNSON KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS NAVARRO RAINS SMITH SOMERVELL TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will persist and shift eastward across the central CONUS through the period. The most important feature aloft will be an embedded shortwave trough, now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern High Plains, lowest Pecos Valley and northern Coahuila. This perturbation will move eastward across much of the remainder of TX today, reaching a position from eastern OK to east TX to the northwestern Gulf by 00Z. Overnight, this trough should pivot northeastward, reaching southern IL, western parts of KY/TN, and MS by 12Z tomorrow. The 11Z surface analysis showed a wavy, mostly warm to locally quasistationary frontal zone across the southeastern Hill Country of TX, eastward over central/east TX and central LA to western/central MS, then southeastward diffusely into outflow air over coastal areas near MOB/PNS, related to offshore activity. A low was drawn over northwest TX between SPS-ABI. The low is expected to migrate east-southeastward across north TX this morning, meet the returning warm sector, then pivot east-northeastward to the northern LA/ southern AR area by 00Z, when the attached cold front should extend southwestward over portions of east and south TX. By 12Z, the low should deepen considerably and reach western KY, with cold front across middle TN, northern AL, southeastern MS, southeastern LA, and the northwestern Gulf. Well-organized convective band(s) should precede the cold front from this afternoon through tonight. Prior to the low's arrival, the warm/marine front should advance northward into the Arklatex, and across parts of southern AR and northern MS. The warm front should move northeastward across AL and the FL Panhandle tonight, bounding the northeastern rim of a narrowing warm sector. ...Southern Plains to Southern Appalachians and central Gulf Coast... Convection is increasing in two main regimes either side of the warm/marine front: 1. Elevated convection to its north over north-central TX, predominantly of a hail concern, and forecast to move/expand into the Arklatex over the next few hours. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details. 2. Warm-sector thunderstorms building gradually from east TX across parts of LA to southern MS. This activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, isolated hail, and occasional severe gusts. See SPC Mesoscale discussions 2294 and 2295, with watches likely over these areas today as well. Peak tornado and severe-gust potential should be from this afternoon into tonight, in and near the "Moderate" and "Enhanced" areas. Perhaps the greatest uncertainty at this time is coverage of supercells in the warm sector during peak instability this afternoon and into evening, following the morning episode, given 1) the need for recovery behind earlier activity and 2) subtle and gradual boundary-layer forcing/convergence would be the main factor contributing to their development. A broad area of favorable moisture, represented by mid-60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, will contribute to peak MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg range from east TX to southwestern MS, and around 1000-1500 J/kg from central MS into central/southern AL where diurnal heating will be less a factor than theta-e advection for preconvective destabilization. Hodographs will favor supercells and tornado potential during the day -- especially near the marine/warm front -- but largest after 00Z east of the Mississippi River where a 45-60-kt LLJ will overlap at least marginally surface-based inflow parcels. SRH of 150-250 J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km, and 200-400 J/kg in the effective-inflow layer, should be attainable. Any sustained, discrete supercell in this environment will pose a threat for cyclic, strong tornado production. As the primary convective band organizes and moves into increasing moisture and LLJ-enlarged hodographs in low levels this evening, embedded LEWP/bowing features may produce both severe gusts and tornadoes. The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area. As the event proceeds through the overnight hours, one or two dominant QLCSs should continue across AL and into portions of GA and the FL Panhandle, with a threat persisting for embedded severe gusts and at least a few tornadoes. ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/28/2024 Read more

MD 2293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 2293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...north TX to the Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281046Z - 281215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few elevated supercells with a primary threat of severe hail may develop before sunrise. Monitoring for a possible severe thunderstorm watch, north of a probable tornado watch later. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have commenced in/around the Metroplex across north TX. This activity is expected to increase in coverage through mid-morning along a pronounced north/south-oriented gradient in buoyancy across east TX. With this activity occurring atop a stable, but shallow near-surface layer, convection will probably remain elevated to slightly elevated through 14-15Z. The FWS VWP confirms a nearly unidirectional, southwesterly wind profile, with the more pronounced speed shear between 3-5 km AGL. With some strengthening of mid-level winds expected this morning, this setup should foster potential for a few elevated supercells capable of producing large hail to around golf-ball size. ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32539740 32889722 33269666 33559588 33699534 33749473 33739438 33729414 33629376 33309355 32979359 32729412 32449496 32199588 32089660 32219730 32539740 Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0717 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough and associated surface low/cold front will move towards the Mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coast Tuesday, and thunderstorms will be possible within a weakly unstable warm sector as large-scale ascent increases during the day. Confidence in the potential for stronger storms is low given the spatially confined area and expected weak destabilization. During the remainder of the week and, despite some model/ensemble variability, there is general agreement on an eastern CONUS upper trough and a ridge across the western U.S. This pattern does not favor substantial/rapid moisture return in the wake of the prior cold frontal passage, and overall thunderstorm chances will be very low to nil Wednesday through Saturday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of the eastern U.S. upper trough which will exit the northeast U.S. during the day Monday, an upstream trough will amplify as it moves southeast into the central portion of the CONUS Monday and Monday night. In response, a surface low will develop and be located near the KS/MO border during the afternoon. Although southerly low-level flow will become re-established from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Ozarks as the low develops, richer boundary-layer moisture (surface dew points at or above mid 50s) will remain confined to coastal areas from southeast TX into southern Louisiana. Farther north, dew points generally in the 40s will be prevalent. As strong dynamic ascent with the upper trough interacts with the meager low-level moisture over the mid-Mississippi Valley, an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out within an area of developing precipitation. Overall coverage, however, is not expected to warrant an areal delineation (10 percent probability) for thunderstorms. Elsewhere over the CONUS, generally stable conditions should result in negligible chances for thunderstorms. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more