No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 19 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The upper-level flow regime into the middle of next week is expected to be quasi-zonal. Upper-level shortwave troughs will progress eastward through the central Plains with a southward shift in the track of the systems (into the southern Plains) forecast to occur by mid/late next week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest low probability of critical fire weather during the period. Some increase in dry and breezy conditions is possible in parts of the southern Plains as the shortwave troughs pass through the region. However, the timing of these troughs may not be well-aligned with afternoon heating as well as cloud cover also limiting RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored as precipitation has been minimal in these areas and is expected to remain so over the next week. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z The upper-level flow regime into the middle of next week is expected to be quasi-zonal. Upper-level shortwave troughs will progress eastward through the central Plains with a southward shift in the track of the systems (into the southern Plains) forecast to occur by mid/late next week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest low probability of critical fire weather during the period. Some increase in dry and breezy conditions is possible in parts of the southern Plains as the shortwave troughs pass through the region. However, the timing of these troughs may not be well-aligned with afternoon heating as well as cloud cover also limiting RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored as precipitation has been minimal in these areas and is expected to remain so over the next week. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0148 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected through late afternoon across extreme southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Florida is experiencing a weak cold-frontal passage moving southward through late afternoon. This in combination with short-wave trough approaching from the west, ample low-level moisture, and weak instability will result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0148 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected through late afternoon across extreme southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Florida is experiencing a weak cold-frontal passage moving southward through late afternoon. This in combination with short-wave trough approaching from the west, ample low-level moisture, and weak instability will result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across WA/OR/northern CA during the day on Saturday, and eventually approach the northern Rockies region by early Sunday morning. Very modest buoyancy (with pockets of MUCAPE around 100 J/kg) and ascent attendant to the shortwave will support convection with potential for sporadic lightning flashes and locally gusty winds across coastal regions of northern CA and OR. At this time, the greatest relative potential for any lightning activity is expected early in the forecast period, though shallow convective showers may persist through much of the day in the wake of the departing shortwave. Across the central/eastern CONUS, an expansive surface ridge will result in dry and stable conditions, with negligible thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across WA/OR/northern CA during the day on Saturday, and eventually approach the northern Rockies region by early Sunday morning. Very modest buoyancy (with pockets of MUCAPE around 100 J/kg) and ascent attendant to the shortwave will support convection with potential for sporadic lightning flashes and locally gusty winds across coastal regions of northern CA and OR. At this time, the greatest relative potential for any lightning activity is expected early in the forecast period, though shallow convective showers may persist through much of the day in the wake of the departing shortwave. Across the central/eastern CONUS, an expansive surface ridge will result in dry and stable conditions, with negligible thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential over the CONUS is low. Amplifying mid-level flow over the US will result in deep troughing over the eastern US and ridging to the west. A surface cyclone moving through the Midwest will drag a cold front across the central CONUS, eventually moving offshore over the East. High pressure with a much cooler air mass behind the front will favor cool and dry conditions. This will largely limit fire-weather concerns, as a poor overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough developing southeast over the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley will reinforce mean upper troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Strong surface high pressure will overspread the central U.S. while a cold front develops far south into the Gulf and offshore the Atlantic coast. This will leave a dry and stable airmass over much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm chances will be low. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected through late afternoon across extreme southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Florida is experiencing a weak cold-frontal passage moving southward through late afternoon. This in combination with short-wave trough approaching from the west, ample low-level moisture, and weak instability will result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected through late afternoon across extreme southeastern Florida. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Florida is experiencing a weak cold-frontal passage moving southward through late afternoon. This in combination with short-wave trough approaching from the west, ample low-level moisture, and weak instability will result in isolated thunderstorms for a few hours. ..15_ows.. 12/19/2024 Read more

MD 2273 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Areas affected...far southeastern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191548Z - 191845Z SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow with rates around 1" per hour to continue through the late morning. DISCUSSION...Bands of moderate to heavy snow are ongoing across portions of southeastern MN into west-central WI. The heaviest snow appears to be focused near the MN/WI/IA border where upper-level divergence from a mid-level shortwave is leading to greater forcing amid deep moist convergence. HREF guidance indicates that rates will come down into the afternoon as upper-level support shifts southward, before the backside of the low shifts across the region later in the afternoon/evening when rates may increase again. ..Thornton.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44769223 44589279 44049233 43749159 43529082 43379004 43649010 44049035 44439087 44769223 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to move eastward as the overall upper-air pattern becomes more amplified. High pressure over the Great Basin will move into the Rockies as a cold front moves south over the central US. Aside from some residual offshore flow over parts of southern CA, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Southern CA... Offshore pressure gradients and the resulting surface winds are expected to gradually weaken early this morning as high pressure shifts eastward over the Rockies and Great Basin. While winds should generally weaken, some lingering, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may continue in the foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through the first half of the afternoon. Limited in spatial coverage and duration, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread. Fire-weather concerns will end as onshore flow returns this evening. ...Central Plains... A moderately strong downslope wind event behind the deepening shortwave trough will allow for strong gusts of 30-40 mph across parts of eastern CO and western NE/KS this afternoon. However, these winds are only expected to overlap with cooler surface temperatures and moderately low RH for a few hours. While some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the lack of drier fuels and the limited overlap of dry/windy conditions should negate more widespread fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to move eastward as the overall upper-air pattern becomes more amplified. High pressure over the Great Basin will move into the Rockies as a cold front moves south over the central US. Aside from some residual offshore flow over parts of southern CA, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Southern CA... Offshore pressure gradients and the resulting surface winds are expected to gradually weaken early this morning as high pressure shifts eastward over the Rockies and Great Basin. While winds should generally weaken, some lingering, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may continue in the foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through the first half of the afternoon. Limited in spatial coverage and duration, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread. Fire-weather concerns will end as onshore flow returns this evening. ...Central Plains... A moderately strong downslope wind event behind the deepening shortwave trough will allow for strong gusts of 30-40 mph across parts of eastern CO and western NE/KS this afternoon. However, these winds are only expected to overlap with cooler surface temperatures and moderately low RH for a few hours. While some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the lack of drier fuels and the limited overlap of dry/windy conditions should negate more widespread fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-tropospheric pattern is evolving back to an eastern mean trough and western ridge for a few days, as a series of shortwave troughs dig southeastward from the northern/central Plains and upstream parts of western/central Canada. Low-level cold frontal passage related to the eastern troughing will render the airmass east of the Rockies too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms over land for the rest of this period. Meanwhile, ridging aloft and lack of greater moisture/instability will preclude thunder in the West. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-tropospheric pattern is evolving back to an eastern mean trough and western ridge for a few days, as a series of shortwave troughs dig southeastward from the northern/central Plains and upstream parts of western/central Canada. Low-level cold frontal passage related to the eastern troughing will render the airmass east of the Rockies too dry and/or stable for thunderstorms over land for the rest of this period. Meanwhile, ridging aloft and lack of greater moisture/instability will preclude thunder in the West. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon, a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across TX toward OK by early next week, and eventually into the Lower MS Valley by mid to late in the week. Large spread remains regarding the timing and intensity of these features across the south-central U.S. However, thunderstorm potential will begin increasing starting Day 5/Monday across OK/TX, shifting east with time through Day 8/Thu. Some severe-thunderstorm potential could accompany this activity, but predictability is too low at this time to include outlook delineations at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure from the Rockies through the eastern U.S. will maintain a dry/stable airmass across most of the country. Across the Pacific Northwest, an upper trough will move inland and into the northern Rockies. A couple of thunderstorms offshore may approach the Oregon coast Saturday morning in the moist onshore flow regime. However, forecast soundings show weak instability which rapidly decreases away from the coast. As such, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 12/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather potential over the CONUS is low. Amplifying mid-level flow over the US will result in deep troughing over the eastern US and ridging to the west. A surface cyclone moving through the Midwest will drag a cold front across the central CONUS, eventually moving offshore over the East. High pressure with a much cooler air mass behind the front will favor cool and dry conditions. This will largely limit fire-weather concerns, as a poor overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to move eastward as the overall upper-air pattern becomes more amplified. High pressure over the Great Basin will move into the Rockies as a cold front moves south over the central US. Aside from some residual offshore flow over parts of southern CA, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Southern CA... Offshore pressure gradients and the resulting surface winds are expected to gradually weaken early this morning as high pressure shifts eastward over the Rockies and Great Basin. While winds should generally weaken, some lingering, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may continue in the foothills of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through the first half of the afternoon. Limited in spatial coverage and duration, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread. Fire-weather concerns will end as onshore flow returns this evening. ...Central Plains... A moderately strong downslope wind event behind the deepening shortwave trough will allow for strong gusts of 30-40 mph across parts of eastern CO and western NE/KS this afternoon. However, these winds are only expected to overlap with cooler surface temperatures and moderately low RH for a few hours. While some locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the lack of drier fuels and the limited overlap of dry/windy conditions should negate more widespread fire-weather potential. ..Lyons.. 12/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more