SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Black Hills... Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across parts of OK and southern KS at the start of the period Sunday morning, generally along and north of a surface front. This activity will likely be elevated and tied to warm/moist advection associated with a southerly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to diminish in coverage through the day as the low-level jet weakens. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development across this region in the vicinity of the front Sunday afternoon/evening remains unclear, as large-scale ascent will be nebulous/weak. While a conditional severe threat remains apparent, the lack of a convective signal in most guidance precludes introducing low severe probabilities across the southern Plains at this time. Farther north across the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along and east of a weak surface lee trough/front. This convection should also be aided by a modestly enhanced westerly mid-level jet moving eastward from the northern/central Rockies across the adjacent High Plains through Sunday evening. While low-level moisture should remain a bit more limited with northward extent across the central Plains, sufficient instability should be present as diurnal heating occurs and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells with attendant threat for isolated large hail. But, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms could develop. Some chance for upscale growth into a bowing cluster appears possible Sunday evening/night across parts of the central Plains, mainly focused over southern SD into central NE. If this occurs, then severe wind gusts would become the primary severe threat. Given the potential severe hail/wind threat, a fairly broad Marginal Risk has been introduced across parts of the central Plains. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains into southern Montana. ...High Plains into southern MT... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably over the next 36hr with a dominant upper anticyclone forecast to hold over southern NM/west TX region. The northern extent of this feature will be suppressed during the latter half of the period across the northern Rockies into western WY as a 500mb speed max increases/translates across ID into southwest WY. Even so, at the surface, lee trough is not forecast to be particularly strong but it will extend from southeast MT-eastern CO-TX Panhandle. Low-level trajectories east of this feature will be seasonally cool, originating from a continental high that will settle into/hold across KS. Net result should be limited surface heating across much of the central High Plains, and stronger heating/steeper low-level lapse rates will develop deeper into the high terrain. Latest model guidance does not permit strong buoyancy to develop as moisture will be somewhat limited across this region. Primary concern for robust convection will be with updrafts that evolve ahead of the aforementioned short-wave trough. This feature will encourage some organization, but the absence of stronger buoyancy should limit severe coverage. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the primary concerns. Late in the period, the LLJ is expected to increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS. This may contribute to a more organized, marginally severe, cluster that will propagate into northern OK within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for a tornado continues this evening across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...01z Update... Remnants of TS Debby are quickly lifting northeast into southern QC early this evening. While low-level shear remains strong ahead of the progressive short-wave trough, buoyancy is negligible across northern New England and very limited across southern portions. Over the last hour or so, lightning has diminished as cloud tops warm and convection is weakening. Will maintain a marginal risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado this evening. Otherwise, severe threat appears to be diminishing. Upstream across the southern High Plains into WY, west-northwesterly flow is dominant along the northern periphery of the southern US anticyclone centered over TX. A few weak disturbances are progressing across the Great Basin before turning southeast toward the central High Plains. Each of these features appears to be influencing a couple of corridors of organized convection. The southern-most corridor extends from southwest KS into northeast NM. This activity should spread into the TX Panhandle later this evening and gusty winds could be noted at times. Even so, lapse rates are not especially steep at AMA this evening with roughly 300 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm advection profiles favor this activity persisting deep into the evening hours. Scattered convection is also somewhat organized across south-central WY, immediately ahead of a weak disturbance. RIW sounding exhibited weak buoyancy, and the air mass east of the Laramie Mountains is poor with surface temperatures only in the upper 50s. This activity could generate gusty winds for a few hours, but otherwise remain mostly below severe levels. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2024 Read more

MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WY INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST UT/SOUTHEAST ID
Mesoscale Discussion 1875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central WY into extreme northeast UT/southeast ID Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092051Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of building cumulus are noted across parts of southern/central WY this afternoon, with a strong storm over far northern UT. While low-level moisture remains rather modest, a combination of diurnal heating and relatively steep lapse rates have resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 500 J/kg across much of the region. Generally unidirectional wind profiles with moderate westerly midlevel flow are supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for modestly organized cells/clusters as storms mature. Initial storms could pose a nonzero hail threat, but one or more outflow-driven clusters may evolve with time, as storms move through a well-mixed environment. Steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for strong to locally severe gusts as convection spreads eastward from late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 41150838 41141054 41291092 41591169 42151169 42971069 43470985 43360752 43310709 42960589 42190559 41490554 41120557 41070616 41170738 41150838 Read more

MD 1876 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 617... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY...southern VT...and western MA Concerning...Tornado Watch 617... Valid 092057Z - 092230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across portions of Tornado Watch 617 in this evening. DISCUSSION...A band of low-topped thunderstorms is tracking eastward across portions of eastern NY this afternoon, though weak instability has generally limited updraft intensity thus far. However, very strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow/shear could still support locally damaging gusts if any updrafts within the line are able to mature. And, with around 400 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the convection, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Weinman.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42307386 42597375 43197349 43647381 43747366 43797335 43607285 43327261 42627275 42147321 42107373 42307386 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement the gradual amplification of the upper-level synoptic regime over the next seven days. This will be characterized by ridging across the central CONUS with mean troughing along the West Coast. West/southwesterly flow over the Great Basin will allow multiple short-wave disturbances to propagate across the West with frequent rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners amid a continued northward flux of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California. However, ensemble guidance suggest predominantly dry conditions will persist across NV, CA, and southeast OR/southwest ID. This will maintain dry fuels as winds increase with each passing upper disturbance. Some solutions (notably recent GFS and GEFS runs) suggest localized elevated conditions will be possible each day across southern CA into much of NV, though confidence in somewhat more widespread elevated conditions (with perhaps some critical conditions) remains highest on D4/Monday when a progressive shortwave moves across the region. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN PA INTO NJ...EASTERN NY...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains valid. Post-TC Debby continues to progress northeastward across New York, with a band of deeper convection extending from just east of its center southward into far eastern PA/far western NJ. Area VADs show strong wind fields throughout the eastern portion of this cyclone, but limited buoyancy has tempered storm depth and persistence thus far. Given the robust wind fields, the potential for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes will persist throughout the afternoon and into the evening, particularly in areas ahead of the main convective line where more cellular storms are likely. Farther west, afternoon/evening thunderstorms are still possible across the higher terrain of WY, CO, and NM, with these storms then moving into the central/southern High Plains thereafter. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts. ..Mosier.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN PA INTO NJ...EASTERN NY...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains valid. Post-TC Debby continues to progress northeastward across New York, with a band of deeper convection extending from just east of its center southward into far eastern PA/far western NJ. Area VADs show strong wind fields throughout the eastern portion of this cyclone, but limited buoyancy has tempered storm depth and persistence thus far. Given the robust wind fields, the potential for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes will persist throughout the afternoon and into the evening, particularly in areas ahead of the main convective line where more cellular storms are likely. Farther west, afternoon/evening thunderstorms are still possible across the higher terrain of WY, CO, and NM, with these storms then moving into the central/southern High Plains thereafter. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts. ..Mosier.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. Read more

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ABE TO 30 SSW MSV TO 15 S SLK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..WEINMAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...OKX...PHI...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 617 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-092040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MAC003-011-013-015-092040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE NJC003-013-019-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-092040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUNTERDON Read more

WW 617 TORNADO CT MA NJ NY PA VT 091725Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of western Connecticut western Massachusetts parts of central and northern New Jersey eastern New York eastern Pennsylvania central and southern Vermont * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...As extra-tropical cyclone Debby continues moving northeastward across eastern New York this afternoon and into this evening, potential for a few tornadoes will accompany this system -- affecting areas as far east as western New England. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Rutland VT to 65 miles south of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 616... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The primary change for this forecast update is an expansion of the isolated dry thunderstorm risk area into eastern WA. Latest ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection developing within the higher terrain of the Cascades before moving east into a drier air mass. While forecast soundings show PWAT values generally near or above 0.75 inches, ensemble QPF output shows low (less than 20%) probability for wetting rainfall. This signal, along with anticipated storm motions near 20 knots and antecedent dry fuel conditions, has increased confidence enough for a northwestward expansion of the dry thunderstorm risk area. A few dry thunderstorms are also possible further south across northern UT, but confidence in the coverage of dry vs wet thunderstorms is more limited based on PWAT and QPF forecasts. A swath of elevated (to perhaps locally critical) wind-driven fire weather conditions remains likely across northern NV. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 9 17:41:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0617 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0617 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the central and southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper cyclone centered over northeast Ontario Saturday morning is forecast to progress gradually eastward/east-northeastward throughout the day, ending the period centered over the central Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow within the base of this cyclone, which stretches cyclonically from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley and into the Northeast/St. Lawrence Valley. A cold front is expected to extend from ME southward off the coast of southern New England before then arcing back more southwestward through the Carolinas and GA into the central Gulf of Mexico. The series of shortwave troughs rotating around the cyclone will help reinforce the continental airmass cover much of the eastern CONUS, with little change in the location of the cold front from the Carolinas into the central Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated east/southeast of this front, but weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west, low-amplitude ridging will remain centered over the Far West TX/southeast NM vicinity, with westerly flow aloft extending throughout the northern periphery of this ridging from OR/northern CA through the central Plains. This westerly flow aloft will help support a sharpening lee surface trough and resulting low-level moisture advection across the High Plains. ...Central/Southern High Plains. Tightening surface pressure gradient between this troughing and high pressure over the central/southern MO Valley will support low-level southerly flow and associated moisture return across the southern/central High Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the Rockies, with the westerly flow aloft then taking these storms away from the higher terrain into the High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated, but the anticipated low-level moisture advection should still keep at least modest moisture in place. Current expectation is for afternoon dewpoints to range from the low 50s across eastern WY to the low 60s in the northeast NM/southeast CO/southwest KS/western OK Panhandle vicinity. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE from 500 J/kg over eastern WY to 1500 J/kg in southeast CO. Low-level southeasterlies veering to westerly aloft will also support moderate vertical shear, even though overall magnitude of both the surface winds and the westerly flow aloft is modest. These environmental conditions could support persistent multicells and perhaps brief supercells, with isolated severe gusts and hail. ..Mosier.. 08/09/2024 Read more