SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 10 21:21:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ID...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT...WESTERN/CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern ID...southwest/south-central MT...western/central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102013Z - 102215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon from eastern ID into southwest MT and western WY, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of near or above 500 J/kg where somewhat stronger diurnal heating has occurred. One supercell is ongoing near the ID/WY border, and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support occasionally organized storms through the afternoon. Isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible with the initially discrete storms. With time, one or more outflow-dominant clusters could evolve and spread east-southeastward, resulting in localized corridors of somewhat greater strong to severe gust potential. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 42961217 43561154 44031180 44171256 44641374 45811326 46631201 47081031 46670967 45410853 43100623 42180701 42540962 42521176 42961217 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 10 17:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across northern NV into adjacent portions of northwest UT and southern ID. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central ID as of 15 UTC. The dry boundary layer sampled by the 12 UTC BOI sounding should promote the potential for dry thunderstorms, though recent MRMS rain rate estimates and sparse rainfall measurements suggest a mixture of dry and wet thunderstorms is most likely ongoing, which should continue into the afternoon. Given a handful of fire reports and sporadic wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours, fuels should generally remain receptive to new dry-lightning fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Today, a mid-level trough in the Northwest will slowly drift east and lose amplitude through the day. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will exist from northern California into parts of the northern Rockies. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern Great Basin. Elevated fire weather conditions are probable along/ahead of the surface trough/weak boundary in the northern Great Basin. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Isolated dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in parts of central/southern Idaho. Here, storm motions will be faster given the mid-level jet position overhead. While thunderstorms are certainly possible in parts of the Northwest, slower storm motions due to much weaker flow aloft will increase the potential for wetting rainfall to occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during the afternoon into early evening over parts of the High Plains and extending into the eastern Great Basin. ...High Plains into the eastern Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a flattened mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S., with a belt of enhanced flow extending from northern CA east across the central Rockies and into the Lower Great Lakes. A 500-mb speed max will move across ID eastward into WY/northern CO during the period. In the low levels, a lee trough will act as a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon across the High Plains. Showers/thunderstorms over the northern part of the southern High Plains will gradually push east into OK during the day. Relatively cool and a stable airmass sampled this morning over the central Great Plains [reference the 12 UTC Dodge City, KS raob (nearly nil buoyancy)] may serve as a relative minima in storm coverage/intensity later today. Yet, strong heating and the development of steep lapse rates are forecast to contribute to weak buoyancy later this afternoon (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the High Plains westward into parts of the eastern Great Basin. Inverted-V profiles over UT eastward into northern CO/southern WY will favor localized severe gusts with the widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings over the High Plains westward into the north-central Rockies indicate some storm organization may occur with the stronger updrafts (i.e., supercell structure). Marginally severe hail/gusts are the primary concerns with this activity. Tonight, the LLJ is forecast to intensify over the TX Panhandle into western OK. Scattered elevated storms will probably focus on the northern edge of greater instability within a favorable zone of low-level warm advection. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes an eastward expansion of low-severe probabilities into OK at this time. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging should generally prevail over parts of the Rockies into the Plains through much of the extended forecast period. Periodic suppression of the upper ridge should occur as multiple weak mid-level perturbations move eastward across the northern/central portions of the CONUS. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential may exist across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley and Midwest with any of these low-amplitude shortwave troughs. For Day 4/Tuesday, the best severe potential may focus over the northern/central High Plains along/east of a weak surface trough. However, both instability and shear appear too limited to include a 15% severe area. Details on convective evolution become less clear from midweek onward. But, there are some indications that a shortwave trough may move across parts of the Plains into the Midwest/mid MS Valley. Even so, both predictability and forecast strength/amplitude of this feature remain far too low for any severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should prevail over much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. Still, weak low-level convergence along a surface lee trough, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should encourage at least isolated convective development by late Monday afternoon across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Weak low-level flow should gradually veer to westerly and modestly strengthen with height though mid/upper levels across this region. Related deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, which should generally limit updraft organization. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with initially high-based cores, the potential for a more organized severe threat currently appears too low to include any severe probabilities. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Elevated thunderstorms associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough and attendant low-level warm advection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. This activity should remain sub-severe as it spreads eastward and slowly weakens through the day. In its wake, moderate to locally strong instability may develop along/near a front that should be draped east to west somewhere from the Ozarks into southern KS, OK, and the TX Panhandle. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain minimal across much of this region behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, if thunderstorms can form along the front, they could produce some hail and strong/gusty winds given ample instability and modest deep-layer shear. However, this potential remains too conditional to include low severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ..Wendt.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more