SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mildly dry and/or breezy conditions may develop locally along the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Otherwise, quiescent fire weather conditions are still expected across the rest of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday). ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a large-scale trough moving off the New England coast, a cold post-frontal air mass will persist over the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting the overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Mildly dry and/or breezy conditions may develop locally along the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Otherwise, quiescent fire weather conditions are still expected across the rest of the CONUS tomorrow (Saturday). ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a large-scale trough moving off the New England coast, a cold post-frontal air mass will persist over the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting the overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide will translate slowly eastward through the day as a strong, compact, negatively-tilted mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Across the eastern CONUS a trough will persist on Saturday with dry, offshore flow at the surface. The lack of low-level moisture will limit any thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. The only exception will be across the Oregon/northern California coasts where cooling mid-level temps over the relatively warmer ocean waters may result in some shallow instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. The strong low-level jet (50 to 70 knots from 12Z to 18Z Saturday along the Oregon/northern CA coast) may result in some gusty winds, even where lightning is not present. However, overall, limited instability should mitigate any severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move from the OH Valley to the Northeast, while a midlevel ridge persists over the Intermountain West. This will maintain relatively cool post-frontal conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Over the central High Plains, surface lee troughing may result in locally dry/breezy conditions, though fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move from the OH Valley to the Northeast, while a midlevel ridge persists over the Intermountain West. This will maintain relatively cool post-frontal conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Over the central High Plains, surface lee troughing may result in locally dry/breezy conditions, though fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the Mid MS Valley is expected to continue cyclonically through the base of the mean upper troughing over eastern North America, which takes it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. Another shortwave trough is expected in its wake over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight, while yet another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the northern Plains. This evolution will help maintain mean troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, with cold and stable low levels precluding thunderstorm development. Farther west, upper ridging will persist another much of the western CONUS. Some dampening is anticipated within the northwestern periphery of is ridging as a pair of shortwave troughs rotate around an upper low over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Frontal band associated with the second of these waves should reach the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse rates may result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes within this band. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the Mid MS Valley is expected to continue cyclonically through the base of the mean upper troughing over eastern North America, which takes it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. Another shortwave trough is expected in its wake over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight, while yet another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the northern Plains. This evolution will help maintain mean troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, with cold and stable low levels precluding thunderstorm development. Farther west, upper ridging will persist another much of the western CONUS. Some dampening is anticipated within the northwestern periphery of is ridging as a pair of shortwave troughs rotate around an upper low over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Frontal band associated with the second of these waves should reach the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse rates may result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes within this band. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, with this feature forecast to move east into the Northeast and east of the Mid-Atlantic states by late tonight. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will reside over the Rockies with an upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaching the northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast late. Scant instability may develop and result in a couple of thunderstorms late tonight near the immediate northern CA coast as a strong WAA regime impinges on this region. ..Smith/Goss.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, with this feature forecast to move east into the Northeast and east of the Mid-Atlantic states by late tonight. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will reside over the Rockies with an upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaching the northern CA/Pacific Northwest coast late. Scant instability may develop and result in a couple of thunderstorms late tonight near the immediate northern CA coast as a strong WAA regime impinges on this region. ..Smith/Goss.. 12/20/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature. An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts. This could lead to some severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. However, there is some uncertainty regarding moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature. An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts. This could lead to some severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. However, there is some uncertainty regarding moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... Progressive westerlies will persist over the CONUS on Sunday. The next in a series of shortwave troughs will move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Steepening lapse rates and weak buoyancy may allow for isolated thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon through Sunday night. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are expected as high pressure and continental trajectories prevail from the Rockies eastward. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a large-scale trough moving off the New England coast, a cold post-frontal air mass will persist over the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting the overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move from the OH Valley to the Northeast, while a midlevel ridge persists over the Intermountain West. This will maintain relatively cool post-frontal conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Over the central High Plains, surface lee troughing may result in locally dry/breezy conditions, though fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ..Weinman.. 12/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast. Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast. Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms. ..Guyer.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early morning Saturday along a portion of the northern California coast. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS. One exception will be along the northern CA coast near the end of the period (09-12Z) early Saturday morning. A broad upper trough extending south from a Gulf of AK low will progress northeastward and reach the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon. After this wave dampens, an upstream shortwave trough will similarly track northeastward to offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast through 12Z Saturday. A stronger low-level warm conveyor will become established ahead of this latter trough. This will yield moistening in the 850-700 mb layer with the northern periphery of a meager MUCAPE plume approaching the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, rather strong forcing for ascent in conjunction with scant, elevated buoyancy should support a threat for isolated thunderstorms. These will likely be embedded within the broader swath of rain showers that reach the coast between 09-12Z. ..Grams/Weinman.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early morning Saturday along a portion of the northern California coast. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS. One exception will be along the northern CA coast near the end of the period (09-12Z) early Saturday morning. A broad upper trough extending south from a Gulf of AK low will progress northeastward and reach the Pacific Northwest coast this afternoon. After this wave dampens, an upstream shortwave trough will similarly track northeastward to offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast through 12Z Saturday. A stronger low-level warm conveyor will become established ahead of this latter trough. This will yield moistening in the 850-700 mb layer with the northern periphery of a meager MUCAPE plume approaching the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, rather strong forcing for ascent in conjunction with scant, elevated buoyancy should support a threat for isolated thunderstorms. These will likely be embedded within the broader swath of rain showers that reach the coast between 09-12Z. ..Grams/Weinman.. 12/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ..Grams.. 12/20/2024 Read more

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