SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 25 21:53:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 25 21:53:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more