WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A pair of isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas have been introduced for this morning's forecast update. 12 UTC soundings from BOI and OTX sampled relatively dry low-level conditions and PWAT values similar to previous days that have seen a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. MRMS rainfall estimates and surface observations suggest that most locations have not received wetting rainfall over the past 48 hours with several lightning-caused fire starts have been reported during this period. Morning HREF guidance shows a signal for isolated convection this afternoon and early Tuesday morning with favorable thermodynamic profiles in place for a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms. Given recent observations, the model signals, and antecedent fuel conditions, risk highlights appear warranted. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across west-central NV in the immediate lee of the northern Sierra Nevada as well as across portions of eastern NV. However, such conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A pair of isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas have been introduced for this morning's forecast update. 12 UTC soundings from BOI and OTX sampled relatively dry low-level conditions and PWAT values similar to previous days that have seen a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. MRMS rainfall estimates and surface observations suggest that most locations have not received wetting rainfall over the past 48 hours with several lightning-caused fire starts have been reported during this period. Morning HREF guidance shows a signal for isolated convection this afternoon and early Tuesday morning with favorable thermodynamic profiles in place for a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms. Given recent observations, the model signals, and antecedent fuel conditions, risk highlights appear warranted. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across west-central NV in the immediate lee of the northern Sierra Nevada as well as across portions of eastern NV. However, such conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 11 16:15:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 11 16:15:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern MT/WY this morning. This upper feature is forecast to reach the Black Hills by early to mid afternoon and subsequently move into the IA/MO vicinity by early Monday morning. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains. Morning raob data over the lower MO Valley into eastern NE/KS sampled a relatively cool/stable continental airmass. Appreciable destabilization will occur in the vicinity of a lee trough where stronger heating is forecast today. Some isolated thunderstorms will likely shift eastward from MT/WY into the SD/NE Panhandle vicinity by early afternoon with additional storm development likely as stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the instability axis over the High Plains. Forecast soundings show long, straight hodographs which will promote supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible from the Black Hills southward into eastern CO/northwest KS. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity moves east and/or weakens by mid evening related to the loss of heating. ...Raton Mesa east into the TX Panhandle and western OK... A reservoir of greater moisture/buoyancy will exist with east extent as a modifying outflow boundary becomes draped across the region this afternoon in wake of morning storms over central OK. An MCV noted in radar imagery this morning will move east across northern OK through the early afternoon with implied subsidence in its wake. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through mid afternoon. However, heating over the Raton Mesa and TX Panhandle may foster isolated storms late this afternoon into the early evening. More uncertain is if a couple of storms can develop farther east into OK where large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with a weak cap. Model guidance varies considerably (as expected with a wide array of potential solutions) but mesoscale trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities if uncertainty decreases. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern MT/WY this morning. This upper feature is forecast to reach the Black Hills by early to mid afternoon and subsequently move into the IA/MO vicinity by early Monday morning. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains. Morning raob data over the lower MO Valley into eastern NE/KS sampled a relatively cool/stable continental airmass. Appreciable destabilization will occur in the vicinity of a lee trough where stronger heating is forecast today. Some isolated thunderstorms will likely shift eastward from MT/WY into the SD/NE Panhandle vicinity by early afternoon with additional storm development likely as stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the instability axis over the High Plains. Forecast soundings show long, straight hodographs which will promote supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible from the Black Hills southward into eastern CO/northwest KS. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity moves east and/or weakens by mid evening related to the loss of heating. ...Raton Mesa east into the TX Panhandle and western OK... A reservoir of greater moisture/buoyancy will exist with east extent as a modifying outflow boundary becomes draped across the region this afternoon in wake of morning storms over central OK. An MCV noted in radar imagery this morning will move east across northern OK through the early afternoon with implied subsidence in its wake. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through mid afternoon. However, heating over the Raton Mesa and TX Panhandle may foster isolated storms late this afternoon into the early evening. More uncertain is if a couple of storms can develop farther east into OK where large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with a weak cap. Model guidance varies considerably (as expected with a wide array of potential solutions) but mesoscale trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities if uncertainty decreases. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Multiple mid-level perturbations should move eastward across the northern/central CONUS from the middle of this week through next weekend. This should generally act to suppress upper ridging to the southern states through at least Day 5/Thursday. Low predictability for organized severe potential remains apparent in this flow regime given the low-amplitude nature of relevant features. But, medium-range guidance shows a tendency for a more amplified pattern by late week into the upcoming weekend as an upper trough/low potentially develops across the western states, ridging builds over the central CONUS, and a separate upper trough/low remains over the eastern CONUS. Regardless of these developments, isolated severe potential may exist on Day 4/Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest in association with one of the mid-level perturbations. Some threat for organized severe thunderstorms will probably continue each day through the extended forecast period across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and vicinity, although delineating regions of greater potential remains highly uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Multiple mid-level perturbations should move eastward across the northern/central CONUS from the middle of this week through next weekend. This should generally act to suppress upper ridging to the southern states through at least Day 5/Thursday. Low predictability for organized severe potential remains apparent in this flow regime given the low-amplitude nature of relevant features. But, medium-range guidance shows a tendency for a more amplified pattern by late week into the upcoming weekend as an upper trough/low potentially develops across the western states, ridging builds over the central CONUS, and a separate upper trough/low remains over the eastern CONUS. Regardless of these developments, isolated severe potential may exist on Day 4/Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains and perhaps Upper Midwest in association with one of the mid-level perturbations. Some threat for organized severe thunderstorms will probably continue each day through the extended forecast period across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and vicinity, although delineating regions of greater potential remains highly uncertain. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the northern/central High Plains. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain prevalent over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Some northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Have therefore included a fairly broad Marginal Risk across parts of the northern/central High Plains to account for this potential. ...Carolinas... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds is forecast across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. While deep-layer shear appears conditionally supportive of organized convection, poor lapse rates and limited instability may tend to hinder more robust thunderstorms from developing across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Still, occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible, but the overall severe threat currently appears too limited to include any probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more