SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

MD 2308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 2308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Central/Northern Alabama into extreme southern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 290059Z - 290230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening from central Alabama, northward, possibly into extreme southern Tennessee. DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen across MS into middle TN early this evening. Low-level warm advection is intense ahead of the primary squall line, and this is primarily responsible for scattered convection that is evolving along the MS/AL border. While the lead warm-advection storms are likely a bit elevated, surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s as far north as Jackson TN. With time lower 60s dew points will surge across the remainder of northern AL. While surface-based buoyancy will remain a bit weak across this region, intense shear will contribute to the longevity of upstream squall line, along with scattered warm advection storms. New tornado watch is likely warranted downstream. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 32428817 35118787 34898591 32308630 32428817 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW LCH TO 40 NNW LFT TO 10 SE HEZ TO 60 NE HEZ TO 20 NE GLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-005-023-033-037-045-047-055-063-077-091-097-099-101-105- 113-117-121-125-290140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-015-019-029-031-037-043-049-051-053-063-065-077-079- 083-085-089-091-097-113-121-123-127-129-147-155-157-163- 290140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CARROLL Read more

WW 720 TORNADO AR LA MS TX CW 282015Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Southwest Louisiana Southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through early evening. Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds through the watch period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0721 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern LA into central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282156Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across southern MS and southeastern LA could pose a significant tornado threat over the coming hours. However, displaced east from the strongest synoptic forcing, it remains unclear how persistent the threat may be until later this evening. DISCUSSION...Across the eastern edge of PDS Tornado Watch 720, an isolated supercell (with recent reports of a tornado) was observed over northeastern Franklin County MS. Additional discrete development has been noted farther south into southeastern LA, likely along a subtle confluence axis stretching into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm has slowly organized over the last several hours, coincident with the northward advection of a weak warm front. An unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong low-level shear (300-400 m2/s2 ESRH JAN DGX VAD) is supportive of a continued severe threat. The strong low-level shear is also conditionally supportive of a strong and long-track tornado threat into central MS given the favorable storm mode. However, much of this activity is displaced farther east from the stronger synoptic forcing until later this evening. This could tend to make the threat somewhat intermittent until stronger forcing arrives. Thus, while the environment is favorable for a continued, and conditionally significant severe/tornado threat, there remains some uncertainty on the duration/longevity of the risk. ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31779096 31879096 32409067 32649053 32848993 32758961 32608931 32428926 31608957 31328986 31129006 31009060 31079101 31319106 31779096 Read more

MD 2303 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LA AND FAR WESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern LA and far western MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282117Z - 282215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS with a prominent bowing segment and several small supercells may pose an increasing threat for tornadoes and damaging gusts over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As of 2110 UTC, local radar imagery showed a maturing QLCS across north-central LA. Within this intensifying line, a bowing segment/hybrid supercell structure has recently emerged over Natchitoches Parish. As upper-level forcing continuances to intensify with the approach of the upper-level trough, low-level wind fields have increased on area VADs. This is also evident in SPC mesoanalysis where a meso low has developed across southeastern AR with 2-3 mb/hr surface pressure falls. The QLCS should continue eastward into an unstable and strongly sheared air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 of ESRH. The environmental trends, along with a recent report of a 72 mph wind gust, suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential is increasing. Additionally, several small supercells east of the QLCS have developed stronger low-level mesocyclones over the last hour. As low-level shear intensifies, or storms interact with the surging line, the threat for tornadoes (including some strong) is expected to increase within this corridor from northeastern LA into far western MS. ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... LAT...LON 33349126 33229073 32979058 32409060 32139082 31519206 31469267 31849279 33109209 33279158 33349126 Read more

MD 2304 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Texas into central Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282146Z - 282315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch 720. The greatest threat for significant tornadoes remains with a supercell across coastal southeast TX, though QLCS tornadoes remain possible across LA. DISCUSSION...A lone supercell across far southeast Coastal TX has produced a likely intense tornado that may have persisted for over 90 minutes, and is likely still be in progress. Even if this tornado dissipates soon, the parent steady-state supercell will continue to move along the coastline with continued significant tornado potential for at least the next few hours. Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, a QLCS continues to gradually organize and mature, with KPOE regional radar data suggesting that leading-line mesovortices and perhaps QLCS tornadoes may be developing. Current thinking is that the QLCS will persist across western into central LA with damaging gust and tornado potential through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29989494 31179301 31889201 31509135 30759129 30159157 29799186 29619260 29589343 29519413 29549446 29989494 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LFK TO 15 SW IER TO 40 SW MLU TO 40 N MLU. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-282240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-025-029-035-037-039-041-043-053- 055-059-065-067-069-073-077-079-083-085-097-107-113-115-123-125- 127-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERMILION VERNON WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 720 TORNADO AR LA MS TX CW 282015Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Southwest Louisiana Southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through early evening. Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds through the watch period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the Northeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Upstream, another shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Midwest. A dry and stable airmass will mostly be left in the wake of the Northeast upper trough, as a surface cold front will largely be offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Monday morning. However, southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf to the Ozarks as a surface low deepens over the central Plains in response to the digging upper low over that region. Nevertheless, richer boundary-layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will remain confined to the western Gulf coast vicinity. More meager moisture (40s F dewpoints) will exist as far north as southern MO/IL. While a lightning flash or two is possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, poor thermodynamics will preclude greater coverage of thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE TYR TO 25 SW SHV TO 10 ESE SHV TO 20 WSW ELD. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...JAN...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-037- 039-041-043-047-049-053-055-059-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-081- 083-085-091-097-099-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-125-127- 281940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALCASIEU CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT IBERVILLE JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN LIVINGSTON MADISON NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS UNION VERNON WASHINGTON WEBSTER WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA WINN Read more

MD 2301 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 718...719... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into far western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 718...719... Valid 281747Z - 281915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 718, 719 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 718-719. All severe hazards remain possible. The best chance for tornadoes will exist with supercells embedded in confluence bands. DISCUSSION...Multiple storms along a confluence band, including a supercell with a history of producing at least one tornado, persist along a Walker to Matagorda County, TX line while a QLCS is developing farther to the west amid an increase in synoptic forcing. Storms in both regimes are overspreading a destabilized boundary layer, characterized by 70s F surface temperatures and dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal MLCINH per 17Z mesoanalysis. Latest regional VADs show hodographs with elongation, but modest low-level curvature, indicating an environment favorable for damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Latest mesoanalysis shows an 80+ kt 500 mb speed max pivoting the base of the mid-level trough, and is poised to overspread the TX/LA border over the next few hours. A low-level mass response is expected, with intensification of the low-level jet to well over 40 kts likely. As this occurs, enlargement of the hodographs should occur, especially closer to LA. Subsequently, the potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes (including the risk of a strong tornado) should increase later this afternoon. The best chance for any strong tornadoes will likely be with any sustained supercell structures associated with the confluence band, especially if a supercell can avoid detrimental interference from nearby storms. Otherwise, the damaging gust/tornado threat will also increase with an approaching/intensifying QLCS, which will eventually overtake preceding warm-sector confluence bands/storms. Convection continues to oscillate in intensity farther east in the free warm sector. Confidence is not overly high in robust severe thunderstorms developing in this corridor. However, any storm that manages to develop could become supercellular, posing a threat for all severe hazards. ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30059718 31629636 32019506 31999418 31679325 31109274 30649256 30099298 29789413 29749556 30059718 Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AUS TO 30 WNW CLL TO 15 NE CRS. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-041-051-161-185-289-291-313-339-395-407-471-477-281940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BRAZOS BURLESON FREESTONE GRIMES LEON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO WALKER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE AUS TO 30 WNW CLL TO 15 NE CRS. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-041-051-161-185-289-291-313-339-395-407-471-477-281940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BRAZOS BURLESON FREESTONE GRIMES LEON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO WALKER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more