MD 0496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast/Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 200339Z - 200445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon across portions of northeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Intense low-level warm advection has developed across eastern OK into northwest AR, per latest VAD profiles from INX/SRX. 0-3km SRH is impressive across this region as the LLJ is strengthening into this area. Over the last few hours, an elongated MCS has matured across ww159, and several long-lived supercells, with tornadoes at times, are embedded along a corridor from Parker County TX to Hughes County OK. Boundary-layer air mass is gradually recovering across this region with lower 60s surface dew points north of I40 into northwest AR. Severe threat is expected to increase across this area over the next several hours as the upstream MCS spreads into this region, but isolated supercells are also likely within the warm-advection zone. New Tornado Watch is warranted across this area. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35459643 36139555 36409433 36009384 34749487 35459643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0151 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0150 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

MD 0487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192329Z - 200100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A WW issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain relatively unimpeded inflow. Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569 34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785 32689796 33059786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 200011Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time, these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector, where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify. Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the baroclinic boundary into the warm sector. Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807 31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0489 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into far southern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200035Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 149. A locally greater tornado risk exists with a dominate, semi-discrete supercell approaching the Red River. A strong tornado is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity along the Red River. One supercell in particular has a history of producing at least a couple of tornadoes, and this storm continues to progress northeastward along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, with mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints characterizing both sides of the boundary. As such, this storm is expected to continue ingesting buoyant, likely streamwise-vorticity-rich inflow given the continued intensification of the preceding southerly LLJ. The FWD 00Z observed sounding depicts an unstable troposphere and a large, curved hodograph, and over 400 m2/s2 effective SRH. Tornado potential should continue to some degree with the supercell, especially as this storm absorbs preceding showers/storms, and then experiences unimpeded inflow. Some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance also suggest that this storm should persist with strong rotation for at least 1-2 more hours. Given the high degree of storm organization and preceding strong ambient low-level shear, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33469798 33879772 34239728 34369689 34259660 33979654 33699678 33489734 33409775 33469798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0148 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0148 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 147 SEVERE TSTM TX 191920Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase in the vicinity of stationary boundary extended across the region. Environmental conditions support discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3 to 3.5". Several strong gusts are possible as well. Any supercells that persist within the warm sector could produce a tornado or two, but the overall tornado potential is expected to remain low through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east of Dryden TX to 85 miles north northwest of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0149 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0149 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0149 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 148 TORNADO TX 192220Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue to develop and mature in the vicinity of a west to east oriented boundary over the Watch area through the evening. The supercells will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, as well as large to very large hail and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of San Angelo TX to 75 miles east northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

WW 149 TORNADO OK TX 192345Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Saturday night from 645 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify over the Watch area this evening. A few supercells are likely to develop as the low-level jet strengthens this evening, while conditions remains moist and adequately unstable for surface-based storms. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger storms, in addition to the risk for large hail and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Mcalester OK to 10 miles southeast of Mineral Wells TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Across the eastern US, ridging will favor dry conditions but with only modest winds through much of the forecast period. Mid-level flow will trend more zonal and weaken slightly over the next several days, before a more amplified pattern emerges mid to late week next week. Lee troughing and westerly flow will increase from the Rockies to the Southwest. This will tend to support an increase in fire-weather concerns midweek and beyond. ...Southwest and Great Basin... As flow aloft becomes more amplified, a stronger upper trough will eject eastward over the Rockies and high Plains supporting strong southwesterly flow a loft. A cooler air mass behind a remnant backdoor front over the southern high Plains will gradually warm and dry through early next week. Dry downslope winds will increase midweek as the main upper trough moves east. Elevated to critical conditions are possible D5/Wed and beyond. Uncertainty on the upper-level evolution remains fairly large, but ensemble agreement increases fire-weather concerns through next weekend. ...Central High Plains... As flow aloft becomes more zonal, westerly downslope flow is likely early next week. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria at times, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures and precipitation over the preceding days. Localized fire-weather concerns will remain possible, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Southeast... Dry and occasional breezy conditions are possible over much of the Southeast and FL through next week. High pressure over the eastern US will support above normal temperatures and almost no precipitation. This could support some localized fire-weather risk, given the ongoing state of dry fuels and additional drought development. However, confidence in the coverage and intensity of fire-weather conditions is low as winds are not expected to be very strong beneath high pressure. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0485 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 147... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 147... Valid 192121Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147. The highest tornado threat exists with supercells interacting with a boundary. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have become sustained across portions of southwestern Texas, with the lead supercell having a history of producing a tornado while interacting with a mesoscale baroclinic boundary. While severe gusts and hail will remain a concern with these storms over the next several hours, additional tornadoes remain possible with any of these storms if their updrafts can anchor to the boundary and effectively ingest locally higher SRH. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31080228 32170133 32850017 32939959 32569937 32029956 31550001 31220058 31040114 30940195 31080228 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with no changes. Relatively dry and breezy easterly winds may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential over western FL. Offshore flow over parts of New England could support some localized fire-weather risk, but wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures are unlikely to favor much drying of fuels. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the OH Valley, encouraging the deepening of a surface cyclone as it tracks from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes tomorrow (Sunday). Another mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic from New England, promoting deep-layer offshore flow across the region. Dry southeasterly surface flow is expected across western portions of the Florida Peninsula again Sunday afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained winds amid 25-40 percent RH will support Elevated fire conditions given dry fuels. Solidly Elevated meteorological conditions are also likely across coastal New England in association with the deep-layer offshore flow. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations will likely dampen fuels to the point where any wildfire-spread potential that manifests will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with no changes. Relatively dry and breezy easterly winds may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential over western FL. Offshore flow over parts of New England could support some localized fire-weather risk, but wetting rainfall and cooler temperatures are unlikely to favor much drying of fuels. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress toward the OH Valley, encouraging the deepening of a surface cyclone as it tracks from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes tomorrow (Sunday). Another mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic from New England, promoting deep-layer offshore flow across the region. Dry southeasterly surface flow is expected across western portions of the Florida Peninsula again Sunday afternoon. 10-15 mph sustained winds amid 25-40 percent RH will support Elevated fire conditions given dry fuels. Solidly Elevated meteorological conditions are also likely across coastal New England in association with the deep-layer offshore flow. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations will likely dampen fuels to the point where any wildfire-spread potential that manifests will likely be localized in nature. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more