SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor north-northeastward expansion of the general thunderstorm area in north-central CO. Here, cumulus clouds have been gradually deepening over the high terrain this afternoon, and a few lightning flashes have been noted over the past 30 minutes. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes are needed for the forecast Wednesday. In addition to the Elevated area across southwestern NM and far southeastern AZ, breezy northerly winds around 20 to 25 mph juxtaposed with RH dropping into the teens and single digits are anticipated near the CA/NV/AZ border regions. However, considering most of this area contains very low fuel loading and moisture states are near normal, an additional Elevated does not appear warranted at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern California. ...Discussion... An amplifying mid-level trough will continue to sweep eastward across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the system may support sufficient instability to permit isolated convective development -- and possibly a few lightning flashes. Greater potential for convection -- and associated lightning chances -- will remain offshore over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, a mid-/upper-level low will move eastward into northern and central California overnight. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support sporadic lightning, from within the broader area of convective precipitation. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream, with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies, downstream of a cyclone moving into southern British Columbia. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, moving off the Northeast coast this evening. The second wave is also forecast to continue eastward (perhaps slightly east-southeastward), moving through the northern Plains this evening and into the Upper Midwest by early tomorrow morning. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly behind this second wave, progressing southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and UT. At the surface, a low will move across the northern/central Plains just ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. Strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few thunderstorms near this surface low as it moves over the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A similar scenario is anticipated farther south, where some isolated thunderstorms are possible this in the vicinity of a weak secondary surface low over central KS. Continued mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment ahead of this wave will contribute to a persisting potential for isolated thunderstorms from the Mid MO Valley into southern WI/northern IL late tonight/early tomorrow. Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur across western CO where modest buoyancy could develop amid strong boundary-layer mixing and cooling mid-level temperatures. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent within this environment could support a few thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A dry, continental airmass across the eastern CONUS and northern Gulf will keep severe weather potential low on D4/Fri and D5/Sat. By D6/Sun, as the mid-level low starts to translate into the southern Plains, robust low-level moisture advection is expected to occur ahead of a developing surface cyclone. After this time, severe weather may be possible any day through early next week. In general, the overall pattern suggests moisture returning to the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast with a broad trough in the western CONUS with a series of shortwave troughs advecting into the Plains and eventually across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will likely support one or more severe weather episodes, but pinpointing the exact day and location will require less variance in the timing and amplitude of the mid-level pattern within the extended range ensemble suite. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Southeast to the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves toward the East Coast today. A strong surface cold front will be near the Appalachians at the beginning of the period and move into the western Atlantic by early Friday morning. Farther west, a closed low will develop and move slowly east beneath a mid-level ridge in the western CONUS. Any thunderstorm activity associated with this mid-level low should remain offshore through 12Z Friday. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Instability will remain somewhat limited ahead of a surface front as it moves east on Thursday due to limited moisture east of the Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast which could result in a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the cold front from central Alabama into South Carolina where instability may be somewhat greater, but upper-level forcing will be weaker. Thunderstorm chances will be higher across North Carolina and southern Virginia where stronger mid-level forcing will arrive Thursday evening. Minimal instability should preclude the chance of severe weather with any of this activity. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A building surface high across the Intermountian West will increase surface westerly pressure gradients across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico on D2 - Wednesday. Guidance suggests there will be overlap of sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph with relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels across southern New Mexico into southern Arizona are around the 75th percentile for dryness. Ensemble guidance from HREF suggests high likelihood of several hours of Elevated fire weather conditions. A small Elevated region was added to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ..Thornton.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from north Texas to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany this trough as it moves south through the day. Moisture will be mostly limited, but there may be enough for some weak instability from north Texas to the Ohio Valley. As isentropic ascent and convergence along the cold front intensify, isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should be mostly diurnally driven as elevated instability will be minimal after sunset. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from north Texas to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A surface cold front will accompany this trough as it moves south through the day. Moisture will be mostly limited, but there may be enough for some weak instability from north Texas to the Ohio Valley. As isentropic ascent and convergence along the cold front intensify, isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity should be mostly diurnally driven as elevated instability will be minimal after sunset. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the lower 48 States today. ...Discussion... Strong upper trough is moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest Coast early this morning. This feature will deamplify a bit as it digs southeast across the northern Rockies into the central Plains/upper MS Valley region by the end of the period. As this short wave shifts inland, surface pressures will build over the northern Rockies/Great Basin forcing a cold front into the eastern Dakotas-central NE-central CO by 26/00z. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will contribute to mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings along/near the frontal zone suggest weak mid-level buoyancy, likely sufficient for at least shallow elevated convection. While a few of the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, current thinking is the probability for thunderstorms is too low to warrant a risk this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/25/2025 Read more