SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West, a west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the midlevel jet streak, the strong downslope flow will favor deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft west of the dryline. Here, 10-15 percent RH and around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given antecedent drying of fine fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will encompass the western CONUS, while an embedded shortwave trough (accompanied by moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow) advances east-northeastward across the southern/central Rockies. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft will yield 10-15 percent RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds across much of NM into southern CO. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. A separate embedded shortwave trough will overspread the northern Rockies/High Plains, while a related surface trough deepens over the central Plains. West of the surface trough, downslope flow and a modest pressure gradient will contribute to dry/breezy conditions over portions of NE into SD -- where elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, breezy easterly surface winds will develop across the FL Peninsula -- on the southwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic. Over portions of west-central and southwest FL, a well-mixed boundary layer and the breezy/gusty surface winds will contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions -- given very dry fuels over the area. Over the southern Appalachians and portions of the lower OH Valley, modestly breezy southerly surface winds and around 25-30 percent RH may support localized fire-weather concerns during the afternoon; however, marginal surface winds and RH cast uncertainty on the overall large-fire risk -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail should be the primary hazard, but a couple of severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two may occur. ...Northern Oklahoma into parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys... As the primary vorticity maximum within a complex, mid-level short-wave trough shifts into the central Plains through the second half of the period (Saturday evening/overnight), a surface frontal wave will shift northeastward from the Kansas/Oklahoma border area into northern Missouri/southern Iowa. This will allow a cold front to advance southeastward across Kansas/Oklahoma through the overnight period. While strong capping is forecast ahead of the front through the day, suppressing diurnal storm development, the increase in forcing/ascent after dark should support isolated to scattered storm development -- initially across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, and then spreading northeastward/eastward through the end of the period. Steep lapse rates/moderate instability above the capping layer will allow developing storms to strengthen/organize -- aided by veering/increasing flow with height. A few supercells are expected to evolve, with very large hail expected to be the primary risk. Locally damaging gusts may also occur, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out through the end of the period. ...Southern Oklahoma into central Texas... A stout EML/strong cap is forecast to prevail from Oklahoma southwestward into central Texas through the period. With only weak large-scale ascent at best expected to spread into central Texas late, expectations are that capping will persist in hampering storm development in most if not all areas. The NAM (both deterministic and convection-allowing runs) supports this scenario -- as it continues to indicate no convective development. Meanwhile, the GFS is most aggressive in late-period, isolated storm development -- extending across the entire southern/eastern Oklahoma area and southwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Meanwhile, in between these two solutions, the ECMWF shows a small area of late-period development over the Concho Valley vicinity. The takeaway from this is that storm development is likely to remain isolated at best, slightly elevated if it does occur, and well after dark. With that said, severe risk -- though conditional -- is evident if storms do develop, given very steep lapse rates/strong CAPE above the capping layer, and favorably strong southwesterly flow aloft. Therefore, will maintain MRGL risk across this area, to cover the conditional potential for large hail, and possibly a strong gust with any storm that could develop. ..Goss.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat is forecast through this evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is also possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska later this evening/night. ...Western Gulf Coast States... Southern-stream upper trough is currently located over northeast Mexico/far West TX. This feature is forecast to shift slowly east across south TX into the lower Sabine River Valley by the end of the period as modest mid-level flow translates across the northern Gulf Basin. Low-latitude nature of this feature should result in deeper convergence holding offshore much of the period. This is especially true given the multiple ongoing MCSs that are noted from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Substantial convective overturning has occurred inland and air mass recovery will be limited across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Even so, adequate buoyancy will likely exist across far southeast TX into southern LA such that a few robust storms could emerge within the larger complex of convection. Forecast soundings suggest a brief tornado or wind gust will be the primary risks, and this appears to be a low probability threat. ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska... Northern Plains upper ridge is forecast to flatten a bit today as heights fall across the Dakotas ahead of a weak short-wave trough. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests one notable short wave is located over eastern MT. This feature will advance east today and sustain a broad swatch of low-level warm advection along a corridor from MN into northern lower MI. In the wake of the disturbance, surface pressures will build over SK/MB into the Dakotas and force a cold front to a position from southwest MN-central NE by 29/00z. While warm advection will be responsible for multiple bouts of elevated convection, any surface-based thunderstorm development should be noted along/ahead of the cold front as boundary-layer temperatures will warm rapidly and 0-3km lapse rates will steepen. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon along the wind shift over NE and high-based convection should develop. Gusty winds and hail are the primary concerns with this isolated activity. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is maintained into this region; however, extensive convective overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak disturbance over the central Plains, shifting slowly east along the southern fringe of the northern Plains ridge. This feature appears partly responsible for ongoing cluster of convection that has developed from near GRB to northwest of MHK. This activity is noted along the northeastern plume of steeper low-level lapse rates where surface temperatures likely reached convective temperatures (mid 80s). Wind fields favor organized updrafts, and LLJ is expected to strengthen across northeast KS over the next several hours. Latest thinking is this cluster should gradually shift downstream into northeast KS with an attendant risk for hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. Otherwise, more elevated convection is likely again after sunset along the nose of the LLJ into southern IA/northern MO. Hail is the primary risk with these storms. Farther south, an expansive MCS is migrating across deep South TX into the northwestern Gulf Basin. Trailing band of strong storms will soon propagate across the lower Rio Grande Valley and off the Coast. A secondary weak short-wave trough may contribute to another bout of strong convection later tonight, especially as LLJ is maintained into this region; however, extensive convective overturning has disrupted the instability field across this region and the prospect for organized severe appears somewhat limited. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 27 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northern KS into extreme southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272051Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon or early evening. DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus is deepening this afternoon across west-central KS, in the vicinity of a diffuse surface boundary. Some increase in shallow cumulus has also been noted across northeast KS into far southeast NE, where airmass recovery is underway in the wake of morning convection. In the short term, the greater chance for storm development may reside within the very warm and well-mixed environment from west-central into northern KS, in the vicinity of the surface boundary where CINH is diminishing. Any development in this area would be high-based, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and modest effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) could support a few stronger storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail by early evening. Farther northeast into northeast KS/southeast NE and vicinity, a more favorable conditional environment may evolve by early evening, with relatively backed flow, moderate deep-layer shear, and somewhat richer boundary-layer moisture. However, in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, potential for surface-based storm development within the initially capped environment is uncertain and could remain relatively limited. Should robust convection develop in this area, a supercell or two could evolve and pose an organized severe threat. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, due to the potentially limited coverage of the severe threat across the region. However, a watch would become increasingly possible if observational trends begin to support development of multiple severe storms by early evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38800010 39399914 40539650 40939562 40889524 40609501 40409501 39959506 39579513 39159556 38389793 38099910 38069958 38159983 38469994 38800010 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Precipitation chances across much of the CONUS will generally limit fire weather concerns this weekend and through much of next week. Areas of the Southwest and southern High Plains will remain relatively dry, however. While model differences are evident, fire weather concerns will likely be focused in the southern High Plains vicinity over the next few days as a more progressive upper-level pattern develops. Confidence in the details of this pattern are moderately high through next Tuesday. Thereafter, confidence is currently low. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will begin to increase this Saturday from parts of New Mexico into western Texas as the initial shortwave trough ejects into the region. Though winds will weaken some, fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday in New Mexico to near the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Shortwave ridging will then develop over the region next Monday. Winds are currently expected to be light enough that the critical fire weather probability is low. Model differences in the evolution of the upper-level pattern have continued over the past several model cycles for Tuesday into late next week. The ECMWF shows a more pronounced trough in the West whereas the GFS develops a stronger trough later in the week. At least for Tuesday, both model solutions would lead to an increase in fire weather concerns as a lee trough develops. The degree of the fire weather threat will hinge on the strength/evolution of the trough. After Tuesday, predictability decreases markedly. Model trends will continue to be monitored as some areas of critical fire weather potential could emerge. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Precipitation chances across much of the CONUS will generally limit fire weather concerns this weekend and through much of next week. Areas of the Southwest and southern High Plains will remain relatively dry, however. While model differences are evident, fire weather concerns will likely be focused in the southern High Plains vicinity over the next few days as a more progressive upper-level pattern develops. Confidence in the details of this pattern are moderately high through next Tuesday. Thereafter, confidence is currently low. ...Southern High Plains... Fire weather concerns will begin to increase this Saturday from parts of New Mexico into western Texas as the initial shortwave trough ejects into the region. Though winds will weaken some, fire weather concerns will continue into Sunday in New Mexico to near the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau ahead of the southward advancing cold front. Shortwave ridging will then develop over the region next Monday. Winds are currently expected to be light enough that the critical fire weather probability is low. Model differences in the evolution of the upper-level pattern have continued over the past several model cycles for Tuesday into late next week. The ECMWF shows a more pronounced trough in the West whereas the GFS develops a stronger trough later in the week. At least for Tuesday, both model solutions would lead to an increase in fire weather concerns as a lee trough develops. The degree of the fire weather threat will hinge on the strength/evolution of the trough. After Tuesday, predictability decreases markedly. Model trends will continue to be monitored as some areas of critical fire weather potential could emerge. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...20z Update... The Slight Risk was removed from portions of northeastern Kansas into southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri. It appears there remains a conditional risk of a storm or two redeveloping in this region through the afternoon/late evening, but overall coverage of severe risk will remain low. Within this region, a pseudo stationary front/warm front is located, with large scale forcing weak in the absence of any pronounced upper-level trough. Through the afternoon and evening, low-level jet response is expected which will help augment weaker forcing and aid in thunderstorm development but consensus is mainly for storms across far western Missouri into central Iowa. Within this region, storms are expected to be largely elevated, with potential primarily being large hail and a severe gust or two. Overall, the severe threat is appropriately covered with a Marginal Risk given the likely low coverage of the severe threat. Across southern Texas, the Marginal Risk removed across the upper Texas Coast region to mainly encompass the area from Corpus Christi to Brownsville westward. The northern extent of the Marginal Risk continues along the Rio Grande into Big Bend. Damaging wind risk will continue across south Texas through the afternoon before redevelopment is expected across Mexico through the evening. This secondary round of convection will pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid- to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat. Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ...South Texas... Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning. This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However, considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau) and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe threat may occur with the stronger storms. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK TO NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Oklahoma into the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday evening/night. Large to very large hail could be the primary hazard, but severe gusts and a couple tornadoes may occur. ...Central States... Primary changes with this outlook are to add a level 2-SLGT risk and expand the level 1-MRGL along the dryline through TX. A broad negative-tilt mid/upper trough, with at least a few embedded shortwave impulses, will shift east from the West into the Central States by early Sunday. A northern/leading impulse will aid in cyclogenesis into Saturday evening over the Lower MO Valley. A southern/basal impulse will yield a separate cyclone over the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK border area. Boundary-layer moisture will be richer ahead of the southern cyclone beneath a stout EML. Guidance consensus suggests early evening thunderstorm development should occur along the northwest edge of the low to mid 60s surface dew point plume, centered on south-central KS/north-central OK. Additional storms will probably form northeastward along the front into the Lower MO Valley. The degree of convective coverage with southern extent is more nebulous, but there are signals for isolated cells as far south as the Edwards Plateau. Convection along much of the front northeast of OK should tend to grow upscale into clusters given the flow orientation relative to the boundary and initially moderate mid-level winds. A more favorable discrete supercell wind profile exists in OK, posing a conditional very large hail and tornado threat along this portion of the dryline Saturday evening. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast reasoning remains largely valid. Minor changes were made to the Southwest/southern High Plains Elevated area to account for recent guidance. Within the Blue Ridge Vicinity, dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible. Sustained winds still appear too light for highlights, however. Elsewhere, changes are as follows: ...Central Plains... An Elevated area was added to portions of central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. The expectation is for RH to fall to around 20% behind the surface trough where downsloping will occur. Duration will be the main uncertainty, but enough of the region should see Elevated conditions for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. ...Western Florida Peninsula... Wind speeds will be slightly higher than on Thursday while RH will probably be similar. Winds of 10-15 mph over very dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat along the western coast. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The previous forecast reasoning remains largely valid. Minor changes were made to the Southwest/southern High Plains Elevated area to account for recent guidance. Within the Blue Ridge Vicinity, dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible. Sustained winds still appear too light for highlights, however. Elsewhere, changes are as follows: ...Central Plains... An Elevated area was added to portions of central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. The expectation is for RH to fall to around 20% behind the surface trough where downsloping will occur. Duration will be the main uncertainty, but enough of the region should see Elevated conditions for a few hours tomorrow afternoon. ...Western Florida Peninsula... Wind speeds will be slightly higher than on Thursday while RH will probably be similar. Winds of 10-15 mph over very dry fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat along the western coast. ..Wendt.. 03/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... As the upper ridge over the central US moves eastward, broad troughing across the West Coast will gradually move over the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will allow westerly downslope winds across parts of NM and west TX with dry conditions and some fire-weather risk. ...Southern High Plains... As broad troughing moves into the Southwest, stronger westerly flow aloft will first appear over parts of western NM and gradually spread into west TX. Downslope trajectories and warm temperatures will support critical RH values of 15-20% through the afternoon. Aided by deep mixing, stronger westerly flow, and a lee trough, westerly winds of 15-20 mph appear likely. Given the increase in dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as the mid-level jet overspreads southern NM/southwest TX during peak heating. ...Central Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the central Plains Friday afternoon. While not expected to last long as deeper moisture arrives from the south, afternoon RH values may briefly touch below 30%. With southerly gusts of 20-25 mph and dry fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS / LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0270 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...far southern Texas / Lower Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271841Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple strong gusts cannot be ruled out eventually over parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. DISCUSSION...A large, heavy-rain producing convective system continues to slowly propagate eastward, with newer development upstream into Mexico (see WPC MPD #0088). Midday soundings reveal deep, moist profiles with poor lapse rates and a high LFC. While the 18Z BRO sounding shows winds veering with height and substantial 0-1 SRH, the combination of poor low-level lapse rates and lack of any baroclinic boundary (outflow) thus far suggests little brief tornado risk. In addition, overall wind potential remains low as the deep moist profiles mitigate downdraft/evaporation potential. Although radar indicates little outflow at this time, a few strong gusts may eventually be generated as heating persist. For any brief/QLCS type tornado potential, this appears highly conditional on a substantial outflow boundary first materializing. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BRO... LAT...LON 26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759 26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850 26089895 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... A low-probability tornado and wind threat remains forecast for Friday morning through evening across portions of the western Gulf Coast States. Isolated severe hail is possible from the Upper Midwest into Nebraska on Friday evening/night. ...TX Coastal Plain to LA... After extensive preceding convection yesterday through today, poor mid-level lapse rates will be prevalent across much the region ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough characterized by embedded convectively modified impulses. This trough should drift east-northeast across south to east TX during the period. Within the rich western Gulf airmass, surface-based destabilization will be tempered and deep-layer shear appears modest. But belts of moderately enhanced low-level flow could support low-probability tornado and wind potential, mainly during the morning to evening. These may linger along the southwest LA coast through Friday night. ...Upper Midwest to NE.. Very steep mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km will be prevalent atop a pronounced surface warm front over WI/MN to a lee trough in the central High Plains. Elevated convective potential appears most prominent by Friday evening near the Upper Great Lakes, downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing east near the international border. Surface temperatures may be close to freezing, but small to marginally severe hail is possible with fast-moving, highly elevated cells along the northern periphery of the EML plume. Farther southwest, the degree of low-level moisture relative to the stout EML should mitigate appreciable convective potential until evening. Convective coverage will probably be sparse as large-scale ascent may be limited, but should eventually increase across NE as the low-level jet strengthens Friday night. Overall severe potential appears likely to remain marginal. ..Grams.. 03/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are possible across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys... Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms, continue late this morning from eastern KS into northern MO within a warm-air advection regime. Morning raob data over the central Great Plains indicated the northeastern periphery of the EML is located over the lower MO Valley. Strong heating in wake of the early day convection will result in moderate buoyancy developing into northeastern KS later this afternoon. Models show a flattening mid- to upper-level ridge through tonight. Nebulous/weak forcing at best is expected in the vicinity of a warm front/outflow intersection later this afternoon. However, the erosion of CINH may enable a few isolated thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon into the evening. Recent HRRR runs and the 12 UTC model-run members of the HREF show a dearth of storm development. Confidence in appreciable storm coverage is lowering for diurnally based storm initiation and casting uncertainty in terms of the potential severe threat. Nonetheless, supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms may occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard in both regimes. ...South Texas... Visible-satellite imagery shows an extensive cloud shield and convective cloud debris across much of south TX into the upper coast, and farther west into the Big Bend region. This is in response to a slow-moving upper trough which is forecast to move across northern Mexico toward Deep South Texas by Friday morning. This episodic convection across northern Mexico into adjacent portions of TX should limit heating during the day. Forecast soundings show seasonably moist profiles from the surface through the mid levels subduing lapse rate magnitudes. Mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early evening. However, considerably weaker flow with north extent (i.e., Edwards Plateau) and uncertainty regarding destabilization farther north cast uncertainty on storm intensity across south-central TX. The low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas aiding in regenerative storm development and an occasional isolated severe threat may occur with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/27/2025 Read more

MD 0269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Areas affected...Northeast KS into northern MO and far southern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271503Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe wind gusts will remain possible into late morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has persisted this morning from southern IA/northern MO into eastern KS, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While this convection has generally been sub-severe, some intensification has recently been noted near/south of Topeka, in closer proximity to the leading edge of very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z DDC sounding). With the low-level jet expected to veer and weaken with time, the longevity of the ongoing elevated storms remains uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail and strong to locally severe wind gusts may continue into late morning, given steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, and sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38999229 38839314 38539453 38009629 38119636 38749622 39329602 40509518 40899433 40539277 39979247 39399239 38999229 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more