SPC Mar 30, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more