SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over eastern NC before then continuing eastward into the western Atlantic. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone early Friday morning, but any higher storm coverage is expected to remain well offshore. The upper pattern farther west across the majority of the CONUS is expected to amplify as a strong trough gradually progresses from the West Coast to the Intermountain West, and downstream ridging across the Plains builds as it moves through the MS Valley. By early Saturday morning, the upper troughing is forecast to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off southern CA/northern Baja Peninsula, and upper ridging will likely extend from the central Gulf of Mexico through the Upper Great Lakes into northwestern Ontario. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. A dry continental airmass and warm mid-level temperatures will remain over the Plains, precluding any buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing fire weather outlook for today (see previous discussion below). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the ongoing fire weather outlook for today (see previous discussion below). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream. Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track. Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight. ...Coastal Carolinas... A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track. Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday into D5/Monday... Extended-range guidance generally agrees that a mid/upper-level shortwave trough/closed low will move eastward across parts of the Southwest/northern Mexico through the day Sunday. This system will eject northeastward as a negatively tilted shortwave trough Sunday evening into Monday, accompanied by intense deep-layer flow fields and significant surface cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, recent guidance has trended toward somewhat richer low-level moisture return, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading into parts of southwest/central/north TX Sunday night into Monday, with at least low 60s F dewpoints into parts of OK/KS. Midlevel temperatures will remain relatively warm across the warm sector, but there is greater confidence in at least modest surface-based buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) developing across parts of west/central TX Sunday night, accompanied by an substantial increase in low-level and deep-layer shear. Isolated severe storm potential cannot be ruled out by late afternoon into early evening, but a notable increase in storm coverage is expected Sunday night. Extensive convection may result in a tendency toward a linear/QLCS mode, but intense deep-layer flow and increasing low-level shear will support a threat of severe wind gusts along with some tornado potential. A 15% area has been added for D4/Sunday, where intensifying flow is forecast to overlap sufficient instability amid as deep convection increases in coverage Sunday night. Some severe threat may persist from late D4/Sunday into at least early D5/Monday, as the shortwave and attendant surface low continue to eject northeastward. Uncertainty increases at this time range regarding the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat on D5/Monday, as richer low-level moisture potentially gets pinched off from the stronger ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough, and buoyancy becomes increasingly weak across the warm sector. Intense wind fields will support some severe-wind and tornado potential where convection can remain surface-based. There also may be some potential for renewed storm development Monday afternoon in the immediate vicinity of the ejecting shortwave and surface low across the central Plains (as suggested in the 14/00Z ECMWF), though this scenario remains quite uncertain. A small 15% area has been included for D5/Monday, as a continuation of the threat that begins late D4/Sunday. Depending on destabilization trends during the day on Monday, probabilities may eventually need to be expanded to the north and/or east of this area. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Some severe threat could linger on D6/Tuesday in the vicinity of the MS Valley, though model spread increases substantially at this range regarding the evolution of the upper-level pattern and occluding cyclone over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Otherwise, Tropical Depression 19 has formed across the Caribbean, with the NHC forecast track suggesting this system may eventually approach some portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Uncertainty remains very high regarding any severe threat with this system into mid/late next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more