SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley to central Gulf States... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough advancing east across CO/NM. This feature is forecast to strengthen as it progresses into eastern KS/OK, with a closed low expected to form as deepens. By 18z, the 500mb low should be over southeastern KS with subsequent movement into southern IL by the end of the period. This deepening low will be reflected at the surface by a sharp cold front that will extend from eastern OK into central TX at sunrise. The boundary will surge east during the day serving as the primary focus for organized convection. Early in the period, elevated convection is expected along a corridor of strong warm advection from eastern KS into western TN. Intense LLJ will be focused across the lower MS Valley through 18z, then shift east, extending across northern MS into southern KY by early evening. Boundary-layer moistening is expected to be aided by LLJ, with gradual destabilization forecast ahead of the front, especially across the lower MS Valley. Latest data does, however, maintain a cooler, stable boundary layer across much of TN where poor low-level trajectories will inhibit destabilization. Latest thinking is the greatest potential for boundary-layer destabilization will be across east TX/LA into portions of MS. Given the strong, dynamic short wave and intense mid-level height falls, a forced line of convection should develop along the cold front, possibly as early as late morning. Scattered convection may initiate across the warm sector over eastern OK shortly after 12z, then gradually expand in areal coverage with a broken squall line, or QLCS, likely by 18-20z from northern AR-northwest LA-southeast TX. Strong shear favors organized squall line, and embedded supercells. Additionally, if adequate warm-sector destabilization occurs, isolated supercells may develop ahead of the squall line. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are the greatest concern, though some risk for marginally severe hail is also possible. Organized QLCS should propagate across the lower MS Valley into western AL during the evening where it will encounter a more stable air mass. Severe probabilities are notably lower across this lower buoyancy environment. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley to central Gulf States... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough advancing east across CO/NM. This feature is forecast to strengthen as it progresses into eastern KS/OK, with a closed low expected to form as deepens. By 18z, the 500mb low should be over southeastern KS with subsequent movement into southern IL by the end of the period. This deepening low will be reflected at the surface by a sharp cold front that will extend from eastern OK into central TX at sunrise. The boundary will surge east during the day serving as the primary focus for organized convection. Early in the period, elevated convection is expected along a corridor of strong warm advection from eastern KS into western TN. Intense LLJ will be focused across the lower MS Valley through 18z, then shift east, extending across northern MS into southern KY by early evening. Boundary-layer moistening is expected to be aided by LLJ, with gradual destabilization forecast ahead of the front, especially across the lower MS Valley. Latest data does, however, maintain a cooler, stable boundary layer across much of TN where poor low-level trajectories will inhibit destabilization. Latest thinking is the greatest potential for boundary-layer destabilization will be across east TX/LA into portions of MS. Given the strong, dynamic short wave and intense mid-level height falls, a forced line of convection should develop along the cold front, possibly as early as late morning. Scattered convection may initiate across the warm sector over eastern OK shortly after 12z, then gradually expand in areal coverage with a broken squall line, or QLCS, likely by 18-20z from northern AR-northwest LA-southeast TX. Strong shear favors organized squall line, and embedded supercells. Additionally, if adequate warm-sector destabilization occurs, isolated supercells may develop ahead of the squall line. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are the greatest concern, though some risk for marginally severe hail is also possible. Organized QLCS should propagate across the lower MS Valley into western AL during the evening where it will encounter a more stable air mass. Severe probabilities are notably lower across this lower buoyancy environment. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/05/2025 Read more

MD 0002 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0002 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0838 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Areas affected...south-central Kansas into far western Missouri Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 050238Z - 050845Z SUMMARY...Areas of light freezing rain may intensify later this evening, spreading out of south-central Kansas into far western Missouri. Small hail may also occur from far northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Light freezing drizzle/rain persists this evening over south-central KS north of the warm front over northern OK. VWPs indicate increasing southwest flow just above the stable/cold boundary layer, which will result in increasing moisture advection and lift atop the cold air mass. Indications are that heavier convective elements/elevated thunderstorms may form over far northern OK into southern KS between 03-06Z. As this activity expands northeast and north of the freezing line, moderate to heavy bursts of freezing rain may occur. Forecast soundings indicate several hundred J/kg MUCAPE will develop by 06Z, and very small hail cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 01/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37939408 37899458 37839508 37749580 37689647 37599709 37539764 37499813 37579841 37899841 38419798 38689652 38829442 38659376 38389367 38119374 37939408 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 5 00:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... No changes are warranted from the 20z outlook. Strong mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across the central/southern Rockies and high-level diffluent flow aloft is now evident across the Plains. Strong height falls will overspread the central/southern High Plains tonight and elevated convection is expected to develop. 00z soundings from across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates, but poor moisture quality. Even so, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection corridor, from Kansas into the Mid-South. ..Darrow.. 01/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 4 22:38:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 4 22:38:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Big Bend/Rio Grande Valley in southern TX. Latest guidance has trended towards more widespread 15-20 mph winds across southern TX in the wake of the early-morning frontal passage. Given the dry air mass currently upstream across NM, the signal for RH values in the teens and 50-70% probabilities for reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds depicted in recent ensemble guidance appears reasonable despite the expectation of falling temperatures. ERCs remain fairly high across southern TX, but persistent drought conditions have resulted in dry fine (1 and 10-hour) dead fuels, which should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue east through the central/southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. A deep surface low will make rather rapid progress from eastern Oklahoma into Tennessee/Kentucky by Monday morning. Colder air will filter into the Plains behind a cold front. Modest surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin. Dry and windy conditions are possible in parts of the Texas Hill Country into the Rio Grande Valley. The strongest winds will likely remain north of the driest conditions in the Rio Grande Valley. Locally elevated conditions are possible. Likewise, in southern California, weak offshore flow may also lead to locally elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity -- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday. Strong/cyclonic flow aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern Tennessee overnight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front. By early afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly destabilizes. Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving ahead of the front. Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi from mid afternoon through mid evening. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...New Mexico... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in recent guidance. 15 UTC surface observations show single-digit dewpoints across western NM and eastern AZ (near the 10th percentile for early January). Additionally, 12 UTC RAOBs sampled very dry conditions (10-15% RH) within the lowest 1 km above the nocturnal inversion. The combination of eastward dry air advection and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will support widespread RH values in the teens across much of NM. Widespread 15-25 mph winds remain likely across the state, though the strongest winds will likely reside across northwest to north-central NM as the mid-level jet max passes overhead late this afternoon. Based on these trends, critical to widespread elevated fire weather conditions remain likely. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Carolinas... Dry conditions are noted in recent surface observations with afternoon RH minimums in the 20s likely from eastern GA into SC and NC. 10-15 mph winds this morning are expected to abate through the day amid gradual surface pressure rises. While a few locations may see periodic elevated fire weather conditions, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and sufficiently dry RH appears too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will progress into the Southwest and southern High Plains today. This trough will be well-timed with diurnal heating across much of New Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona and Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph will be common in areas within the mid-level jet core. Higher speeds are possible within and near terrain features. RH of 10-15% will also be prevalent. Lighter winds (15-20 mph) and slightly higher RH (15-20%) will be more probable in Arizona/Texas. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be limited by cooler temperatures/cloud cover/higher RH in West Texas though some stronger winds could at least occur briefly. As the upper trough ejects into the southern Plains, modest surface high pressure will develop in the Great Basin. Some locally elevated conditions are possible as weak offshore winds develop in southern California by Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more