SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z There was a small expansion of the Elevated area on the southern/ocean facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges in southern California based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Chances of light rain are possible on the western and northern periphery of the Elevated area today/tonight, which may cause future changes to the outlook. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few elevated storms -- possibly capable of producing hail -- may develop across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough shifts across the northeastern U.S. and eventually vacates the CONUS, a second/high-amplitude trough crossing the western states is forecast to cross the High Plains and emerge into the Plains States during the second half of the period tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. in the wake of a prior cold-frontal passage, while remnants of Rafael linger over the western Gulf. Overnight, a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and into the Plains. ...Texas Panhandle/South Plains region into western Oklahoma... Boundary-layer moisture return is forecast to be meager ahead of the advancing cold front, as northeasterly winds will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico west of the remnants of Rafael. As such, surface-based, diurnal convective development appears unlikely. With that said, elevated theta-e advection should be sufficient to allow thunderstorm development to occur across portions of the southern High Plains region and into parts of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Ample cloud-layer shear combined with 500 to 1000 J/kg elevated CAPE expected to evolve may allow a few storms to develop some mid-level rotation. As such, hail potential still appears sufficient to warrant maintenance of Level 1/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but near-land severe potential should remain limited. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 11/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, troughing will cross the Great Lakes and West Coast regions this period, with a substantial synoptic-scale ridge in between, across the Great Plains. The western trough will cross most of the Pacific Coast between 18-00Z today, then progress to near a line from GEG-BOI-ELY-PHX to Hermosillo, MX. In the lengthy zone of strong large-scale ascent/cooling aloft that precedes the trough, isolated thunderstorms already have been noted offshore, and over the southwestern OR Coast. This potential will spread inland today until the trough moves past at least marginally favorable low/middle-level moisture to support deep convection. Elsewhere, thunder potential will be minimal, except for part of the central Gulf Coast from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to around PNS. Isolated to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. Though most of the convection will remain over the Gulf, isolated thunderstorms are possible in the outlook area. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting. The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level flow should both decrease and become veered through the day, where rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be meager and overall severe potential appears low. The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should become established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period. Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector becoming established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday. SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today. Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears premature but bears watching in later cycles. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough should exit the Lower to Mid-Atlantic Coast on D4/Thursday, with amplification discrepancies from D3 persisting. The 00Z ECMWF appears to be the remaining holdout of the deterministic guidance for a low-probability severe threat in the northeast Gulf Coast vicinity. Still, even it suggests low-level flow should both decrease and become veered through the day, where rich low-level moisture exists. Instability appears likely to be meager and overall severe potential appears low. The next broad mid/upper trough should progress into the West by D5/Friday. Guidance appears to be coalescing towards two distinct shortwave impulses evolving within this longwave pattern. The lead one is progged to track northeast into the northern Great Plains and then pivot east across the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada over the weekend. Meanwhile, a basal shortwave impulse should become established off the southern CA coast. This may gradually move east over the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico late in the period. Guidance continues to differ with the degree of continental airmass intrusion into the northern Gulf, in the wake of the shortwave trough departing the East on D4. Overall trends and likelihood of surface ridging persisting across parts of the Gulf Coast suggest that returning moisture will probably be of low quality in advance of the north-central states wave. However, this may yield multiple days of return flow and an increasingly moist warm sector becoming established over the southern Great Plains by D8/Monday. SPC GEFS-based ML guidance has trended down to a 2 percent probability for D6/Saturday, after depicting a 15 percent area yesterday. It has instead, increased probabilities to 15 percent on D7/Sunday. Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance has decreased probabilities for D7 from 10 percent yesterday to 5 percent today. Both of these are 5 percent or less on D8, when the ECMWF ensemble mean would be more indicative of 15 percent potential. Given the lack of consistency, a severe weather highlight for D7 or D8 appears premature but bears watching in later cycles. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AL TO CENTRAL MS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. ...LA/MS/AL... A broad mid/upper trough over the Great Plains on Wednesday morning will progress east across the MS Valley, likely extending from the Upper Great Lakes to at least the Mid-South/TN Valley by 12Z Thursday. Models indicate spread in just how amplified the trough will be. This would correspondingly impact the southern extent of low-level flow enhancement in the Deep South to central Gulf Coast. The weak cold front that intrudes on the central Gulf Coast D1 will stall and then advance north as a warm front late D2 into D3. Rich tropical moisture, characterized by mean-mixing ratios of 15-16 g/kg, will be present to the south of this boundary, yielding potential for modest buoyancy on Wednesday afternoon. Prior to that, extensive elevated convection is expected north of the front within the warm conveyor, slowing the north-northeast advance of the front. The spread in how far south stronger low-level flow will overlap the front/warm sector, lowers confidence in the overall forecast. Conditionally, there will be potential for the rich boundary-layer moisture to overlap moderate low-level SRH amid a veering wind profile with height. Still, strong mid/upper flow will likely be confined farther north-northwest, suggesting that sustained supercell structures should struggle. Transient low-level rotation near the outflow-modulated front is seemingly the most likely scenario, which would offer a low-probability tornado/wind threat. ..Grams.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening. ...Southern High/Rolling Plains... Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper 50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective development is expected during the evening, as large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night. ..Grams.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening. ...Southern High/Rolling Plains... Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper 50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective development is expected during the evening, as large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night. ..Grams.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A weak cold front will move across southern California D1 Monday into D2/Tuesday. Behind this frontal passage, gusty northwest winds will be enhanced near favored downslope terrain features across Santa Barbra and Ventura Counties. Relative humidity will hover around elevated thresholds. Relative humidity will decrease, especially at mid/upper slopes, below critical relative humidity thresholds with poor overnight recovery D2/Tuesday evening into D3/Wednesday morning. However, winds are expected to weaken below thresholds during this period. As such, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will move inland from the Pacific across the western US today. This will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across the southern Sierra and into the Great Basin. While there is some potential for rain/snow showers, an increase in southwesterly surface winds will overlap dry conditions across portions of southern Nevada and along/east of the southern Sierra. Though relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent are likely with sustained winds 10-15 mph (gusting higher), fuels in these regions are largely unreceptive to fire spread. This will preclude the need to include probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 11/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday. As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the Gulf Coast states. ...Southeast... In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period. However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning. ...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada... Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z. Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Outlook Update... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z. Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. ..Kerr.. 11/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 10 22:26:02 UTC 2024.