SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front during the day. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible within a moist airmass across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as the front advances eastward into the Carolinas and north Florida. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with storms that develop along and ahead of the front, but the threat should be marginal due to weak instability. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, a mid-level low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley eastward into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of the system in the parts of the Northeast. A dry and relatively stable airmass across the continental U.S. on Friday and Saturday should limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern High Plains... A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the 50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line. Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain strong convective development with the MCS. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. ...Discussion... Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by 17/00z. Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted. Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted with trailing frontal showers. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ..Wendt.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Threat for lightning remains low tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is advancing across the interior West early this evening. Cooling profiles and steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to weak buoyancy north of the main jet. As a result, scattered weak convection is currently noted from the San JOAQUIN Valley, across southern NV into southwest UT, along the surging cold front. Most of this activity will remain too shallow for lightning discharge, but a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deepest updrafts. Nocturnal cooling will lead to weaker updrafts and the prospect for thunderstorms remains low tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Threat for lightning remains low tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is advancing across the interior West early this evening. Cooling profiles and steepening mid-level lapse rates have contributed to weak buoyancy north of the main jet. As a result, scattered weak convection is currently noted from the San JOAQUIN Valley, across southern NV into southwest UT, along the surging cold front. Most of this activity will remain too shallow for lightning discharge, but a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the deepest updrafts. Nocturnal cooling will lead to weaker updrafts and the prospect for thunderstorms remains low tonight. ..Darrow.. 11/16/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 15 22:10:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 15 22:10:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns remain likely along portions of the New England late this weekend and the southern California coast into the middle portions of the upcoming work week. Long-range guidance continues to depict an active upper-level regime heading into next week, characterized by progressive, potentially high-amplitude, waves. The upper trough currently over the western CONUS is forecast to gradually deepen over the next 48 hours before ejecting into the Plains late this weekend. Strong surface winds will accompany widespread precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest as this occurs. These rain chances, followed by a continental/cold air intrusion across the central U.S. early next week, will limit fire concerns for much of the country. Fire concerns will likely be confined to the New England and southern CA coasts where fuels remain dry. ...D3/Sunday - New England... The offshore flow regime currently in place across the New England region is expected to persist through late D3/Sunday. However, winds are expected to gradually diminish through the D3 period as the surface low currently off the East Coast migrates further into the Atlantic and a surface high builds across the eastern third of the country. Despite weakening gradient winds, very dry conditions and dry fuels are expected to linger for the next several days, and should support some fire concerns during the afternoon hours when boundary-layer mixing will support occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph. ...D5/Tue to D6/Wed - southern CA Coast... The signal for an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast persists in latest long-range ensemble guidance for the D5/Tue to D6/Wed period. However, the magnitude of the expected surface high across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies has steadily trended down in nearly all GEFS/ECENS ensemble members over the past 48 hours. Similarly, deterministic DAG-LAX pressure gradient forecasts have trended towards elevated, rather than critical, thresholds. These trends indicate that offshore winds may not be quite as intense as previously anticipated; however, the consistent nature of the signal over the past few days suggests that a fire weather concern will likely emerge even if the intensity of the winds is less certain at this time. For this reason, the 40% risk probability highlights are maintained, and further upgrades to higher probabilities remain possible if guidance trends back towards an unseasonably strong surface high (1040-1045 mb) and a more intense offshore pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather concerns remain likely along portions of the New England late this weekend and the southern California coast into the middle portions of the upcoming work week. Long-range guidance continues to depict an active upper-level regime heading into next week, characterized by progressive, potentially high-amplitude, waves. The upper trough currently over the western CONUS is forecast to gradually deepen over the next 48 hours before ejecting into the Plains late this weekend. Strong surface winds will accompany widespread precipitation chances across the Plains and Midwest as this occurs. These rain chances, followed by a continental/cold air intrusion across the central U.S. early next week, will limit fire concerns for much of the country. Fire concerns will likely be confined to the New England and southern CA coasts where fuels remain dry. ...D3/Sunday - New England... The offshore flow regime currently in place across the New England region is expected to persist through late D3/Sunday. However, winds are expected to gradually diminish through the D3 period as the surface low currently off the East Coast migrates further into the Atlantic and a surface high builds across the eastern third of the country. Despite weakening gradient winds, very dry conditions and dry fuels are expected to linger for the next several days, and should support some fire concerns during the afternoon hours when boundary-layer mixing will support occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph. ...D5/Tue to D6/Wed - southern CA Coast... The signal for an offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast persists in latest long-range ensemble guidance for the D5/Tue to D6/Wed period. However, the magnitude of the expected surface high across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies has steadily trended down in nearly all GEFS/ECENS ensemble members over the past 48 hours. Similarly, deterministic DAG-LAX pressure gradient forecasts have trended towards elevated, rather than critical, thresholds. These trends indicate that offshore winds may not be quite as intense as previously anticipated; however, the consistent nature of the signal over the past few days suggests that a fire weather concern will likely emerge even if the intensity of the winds is less certain at this time. For this reason, the 40% risk probability highlights are maintained, and further upgrades to higher probabilities remain possible if guidance trends back towards an unseasonably strong surface high (1040-1045 mb) and a more intense offshore pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more