MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...western Tennessee...western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301841Z - 302045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for storms in portions of the Mid-South, including the potential for discrete supercells. Tornadoes (some strong), very large hail, and severe gusts are all possible. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...With the cold front beginning to move southeastward in Missouri, storm development along it can be expected as it encounters greater low-level moisture. Some of the activity in southeastern Missouri may be discrete at least for some period of time. Of greater concern will be storms that develop in western/central Arkansas. There, the surge of the cold front through Oklahoma has allowed a slightly more favorable boundary/shear vector orientation. Recent short-term model guidance has continued to show a signal for storm development in these areas. These storms would have greater potential to be discrete and remain so for a longer duration. With the stronger low-level flow lifting north, the tornado threat may initially be lower. However, discrete storms that persist into the evening will have increasing tornado potential (including strong tornadoes) as the low-level jet increases in the Mid-South. The 18Z observed Little Rock, AR sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates, 45 kts of effective shear, and a remaining capping inversion. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Though cumulus continues to steadily deepen in the region, it may take another hour or two for storms to initiate. Subtle mid-level ascent in Oklahoma will pivot into the region and should assist in this process. A tornado watch is likely later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34959359 34959389 35309378 36449303 36759281 37059233 37119212 37298974 37148906 36998863 36478854 35908887 35219177 35079275 34959359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0072 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055- 059-065-077-079-081-101-115-121-135-139-145-147-157-159-165-173- 183-185-189-191-193-199-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MACON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-035-045-051-055-057-059-063-065- 067-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-135- 139-145-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-173-301940- Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-105-197-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LIVINGSTON WILL INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089- 091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 301940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 30 16:26:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS/BRAZOS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas/Brazos Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301447Z - 301645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe storms may occur and occasionally produce large hail this morning. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection within central Texas has occasionally pulsed in intensity over the last hour or so. This activity, likely elevated, is driven by weak low-level warm advection. Given the very steep mid-level lapse rates (observed in this mornings regional sounding data) and modest influence from a shortwave trough to the north, storms that can persist may produce large hail. However, low-level warm advection is expected to weaken over the next few hours and the coverage of storms is not expected to be more than isolated. Additional stronger storms appear more probable later in the afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated for this early day activity. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30559812 30839848 31139856 31399840 31599784 31629658 31329568 30639558 30299613 30559812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301604Z - 301800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible with a mix of linear segments and supercells. DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River. This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours, particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than points to the west. Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize enough in the short term for an organized severe threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083 39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813 37738856 37128987 37079078 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Clear skies across the southern High Plains is supporting continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, which will foster the development of critically dry and windy surface conditions through afternoon. Therefore, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Clear skies across the southern High Plains is supporting continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, which will foster the development of critically dry and windy surface conditions through afternoon. Therefore, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more