SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS. Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ..Thornton.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day, as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this trough expected through the forecast period. Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough. Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time. ..Dean.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight, posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts. ...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024 Read more

MD 2225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi and far southwest Alabama. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132024Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should gradually mature this afternoon. Tornadoes are possible with transiently organized supercells/clusters. Conditions are being monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed several clusters of scattered storms ongoing over the northern Gulf of Mexico, LA Delta, and ahead of a cold front over the lower MS Valley. East of the front and a weak surface low, inland advection of middle 70s F surface dewpoints, and scattered cloud breaks is contributing to weak/moderate destabilization along and south of a diffuse warm front. Scattered storms are ongoing near the front, and farther south into the Gulf along a subtle pre-frontal confluence zone. As mid-level ascent ahead of an upper trough over the southern Plains shifts eastward, convection is forecast to gradually intensify and increase in coverage. While the stronger forcing for ascent is likely to lag north and west of the more buoyant warm sector, convection should gradually intensify as the front progresses and low-level/deep-layer shear increase. The 12z LIX and area model soundings show low-level hodographs increasing in size with relatively large low-level shear (0-1km SRH ~200 m2/s2). Shear profiles are supportive of updraft rotation with transient supercells or organized clusters. Backed low-level flow near the warm front could support a risk for tornadoes or damaging gusts with the more strongly rotating cells. Confidence in the overall convective evolution and the magnitude of the severe risk remains low. With poor low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy, storm evolution/maturation is expected to be gradual. Recent HRRR guidance suggests additional storms are likely to develop along the cold front and move onshore within the free warm sector. Numerous storm interactions are possible, complicating the convective mode. Still, strong low-level shear and sufficient buoyancy for stronger updrafts may support a risk for damaging gusts and some tornado risk into this evening. Conditions are being monitored for possible WW issuance. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29129028 30239112 31179125 32138986 31768846 30418800 29718874 29068905 29268984 29129028 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 13 21:39:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country through the extended period - particularly across portions of the Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. ...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England... The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool, but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient, somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and into the weekend. ...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico... An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where 10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall. While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week should support a fire concern. ...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific Northwest. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and localized wind damage. While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today, while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper trough will initially be well north of the inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which should limit 0-1 km SRH. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore. A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest forecast guidance continues to show limited potential for elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the country. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on Thursday. Areas across the Northeast will see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as a warm front lifts northward and showery activity brings periods of precipitation. Across the Plains and northern Rockies, enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies with potential for an increase in surface winds and a few regions where relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. Overall, the overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity where fuels are receptive appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 13 18:40:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ...Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...Mid-Atlantic/New England The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made across the New England region. Surface and VWP observations show low-level winds are gradually weakening across the broader Mid-Atlantic/New England region, and this trend should continue as a surface high migrates east through the day. However, given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours and very dry conditions (RH values are already falling into the low 30s and upper 20s per 16 UTC observations), the fire weather highlight is maintained/expanded into areas with recent fire activity. ...West Virginia... Dry conditions remain likely on the northern/northwestern slopes of the southern to central Appalachians today as winds gradually become more southeasterly. Some high-res solutions hint that areas of elevated to critical conditions are possible within the higher terrain of the southern Allegheny Mountains and the Potomac Highlands, and appear most likely through the Monongahela National Forest where a few stations are already reporting elevated conditions. However, the presence of the synoptic surface high suggests that while very dry conditions are likely, winds should remain benign away from the terrain. Gradient winds should increase near/after sunset in response to an approaching surface low from the southwest, but this should be temporally displaced from afternoon RH minimums. 12z guidance generally supports this idea, casting uncertainty onto the spatial extent of elevated/critical conditions. While the fire weather potential is noted, highlights are withheld due to coverage concerns. ..Moore.. 11/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Northeast/New England... Gusty post-frontal offshore flow will continue across the northeastern US today, with potential for relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent and northwesterly winds around 10 mph gusting 20-25 mph. An Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. Winds should gradually weaken through the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the region. ...Appalachians Tennessee/North Carolina border through the West Virginia-Virginia Border... Strong southeast winds further enhanced by downslope flow will bring areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Appalachians near the TN/NC border through the WV/VA border. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent may overlap with enhanced flow in favored north facing slopes. Wetting rainfall will overspread this region Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more