SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest high-res guidance. Overall, elevated to localized/transient fire weather conditions remain likely as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ..Mosier.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures (-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs, respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon. Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast. ..Smith.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The primary change for this update was to remove portions of NJ from the Elevated risk area. Latest surface observations show RH values between 30-40%, but higher dewpoint values upstream suggest RH values should remain in this range - if not see some improvement as suggested by morning guidance - through the afternoon. Additionally, this region should remain within a low to mid-level deformation zone that will limit gust potential. Further northeast into New England, very dry conditions remain likely with gusts up to 20 mph likely by early afternoon as the boundary layer deepens. Forecast concerns across AZ/NM remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential should remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm potential appears less than 10 percent. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be possible but instability is expected to remain minimal. On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be isolated due to limited instability. On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of Florida. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across most of the continental U.S. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight, posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass, and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains overnight. The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. This should be favorable for an organized line segment in west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Another upper-level shortwave will impact portions of the Northeast on Saturday. From the Southwest to the northern Plains, a broad upper trough will make slow eastward progress. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Similar to Friday, dry and breezy conditions will again prevail across the region. With the passage of the mid-level jet, it is possible that a few stronger gusts could occur; however, sustained winds are still expected to reach 10-15 mph. RH will also fall to 30-40% by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will continue to support a large fire risk. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move off the East Coast today. Within the West/Great Basin, another deep upper trough will progress eastward. ...Southern New England/northern Mid-Atlantic... Dry and breezy conditions will occur behind the cold front. With the lack of rainfall across the region, fuels continue to be quite dry and receptive to fire spread. Winds of 10-15 mph will likely occur as RH also drops to 30-40% during the afternoon. ...Eastern Arizona/Western New Mexico... Increasing surface winds ahead of the approaching trough will lead to 15-20 mph winds across the region. RH of 10-15% also appears possible by the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions may occur, the current state of fuels do not suggest a significant risk of large fires. ..Wendt.. 11/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS today. Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the start of the period. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this tonight. ...01z Update... Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 11/15/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 14 22:25:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 14 22:25:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The upper-level pattern is forecast to be active across the CONUS during the extended period. On Saturday, the pattern will amplify as a trough deepens over the West, and a ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The trough and associated surface low pressure system will advance northward over the central CONUS bringing precipitation through Tuesday before slowly meandering eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft over the West on Tuesday and Wednesday will promote surface high development over the Great Basin, favoring offshore flow for southern California. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - New England... Dry, offshore flow will continue into the weekend over much of New England, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Despite relatively cool surface temperatures (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s F), afternoon RH values are forecast to fall around or below critical thresholds (30%) across much of the area. While vertical mixing in the PBL may be limited, strong northwesterly flow aloft will promote strong gust potential, especially for areas that are able to mix more deeply than forecast. Given the dry fuels (ERC values above the 90th percentile) across the region, fire weather concerns will peak on Saturday afternoon and linger into Sunday afternoon. ...D6/Tue to D7/Wed - Southern California... Medium-range ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for an offshore wind event across southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show reasonably good agreement in a strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong upper trough. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient (likely peaking Wednesday morning) should support critical downslope winds in terrain-favored areas of southern California. Given antecedent receptive fuels (as evident by the ongoing large fire in Ventura County) and the anticipated downslope warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible during the D6/Tue to D7/Wed period. ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more