MD 0288 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...East-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 300132Z - 300630Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity and coverage over the next few hours and persist into the early morning hours. Freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.1 inch per 3 hours are possible in some locations. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery loop indicates a negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough tracking northeastward into southwestern MN this evening. An expansive precipitation shield preceding this feature will continue overspreading central MN into northern WI into the early morning hours. Here, surface temperatures in the lower 30s F beneath a substantial warm nose (around 6-7C around 800-850 mb per 00Z soundings) will generally support freezing rain. A strengthening low-level jet (and related frontogenesis) combined with ascent preceding the midlevel wave will favor freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.1 inch per 3 hours in some locations. The heaviest rates will generally spread from west to east into the morning hours, with the longest duration of freezing rain expected over northern WI. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45289336 45029416 44819494 44969523 45319528 45699474 45999395 46199237 46269094 46318993 46188852 46018780 45738751 45198772 44598855 44538909 44708978 45349071 45499135 45549204 45289336 Read more

MD 0290 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 300257Z - 300500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across much of Oklahoma over the next few hours. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows two areas of severe storms, one in southern Oklahoma and another in western Oklahoma. The southern Oklahoma cluster is located along a narrow axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. The FDR WSR-88D VWP has about 50 knot of 0-6 km shear, which will continue to support supercell development late this evening. The TLX WSR-88D VWP has more directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This strong directional shear is evident on RAP forecast soundings in central Oklahoma, which have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for a tornado threat, as supercells move northeastward across central Oklahoma late this evening. Increasing surface dewpoints may aid a developing tornado threat. Forecast soundings in western and south-central Oklahoma also have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This environment should support a large hail threat. The large hail threat will likely be maximized with the cluster in south-central Oklahoma, where right-moving and left-moving supercells are ongoing. Supercells will also be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35479923 35769899 36359822 36769743 36909667 36849552 36429519 35929522 35349544 34289642 33979718 34069788 34319883 34849925 35479923 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-047- 049-051-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137- 143-145-147-300440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON Read more

WW 68 TORNADO OK 300050Z - 300600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern/Northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region as a cold front moves eastward through central OK. Environmental conditions support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a few supercells. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, strong wind gusts over 70 mph, and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Ardmore OK to 15 miles east northeast of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..WEINMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-035-049-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-145- 147-181-193-217-221-231-237-251-257-281-293-307-309-333-337-349- 363-367-397-399-411-425-439-451-497-300340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FALLS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL HOOD HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LIMESTONE MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT TOM GREEN WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 67 SEVERE TSTM TX 300015Z - 300700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 67 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 715 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and North Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 715 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours as a shortwave trough moves eastward into the region. Steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate to strong buoyancy in the presence of moderate deep-layer vertical shear. These environmental conditions could support severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and strong wind gusts this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Brownwood TX to 55 miles north of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity overnight. ...01Z Update... A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output. Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and, as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening into the overnight hours. Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri, and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/30/2025 Read more

MD 0284 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern upper MI and northern lower MI Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 292109Z - 300115Z SUMMARY...An increase in freezing rain rates is possible into the evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in precipitation has been noted this afternoon from northeast WI into northern lower MI, in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving into western WI. Modest isentropic ascent will continue to support light to moderate precipitation in an west-east band across the region into the evening, with some tendency for northward expansion with time. The influence of a cold surface ridge over parts of Ontario/Quebec will maintain cold surface temperatures into the evening, while modest warm advection continues aloft. This should generally maintain a favorable thermodynamic profile for freezing rain, though some mixing with sleet will be possible. Ice accretion rates could occasionally exceed 0.03 inches per hour, as noted in recent METAR observations from Alpena (KAPN). Another wave of moderate to locally heavy precipitation could approach western and northern parts of the MCD area late tonight. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45918798 45998565 45578315 44898275 44478289 44398360 44898630 44608806 44618980 44878967 45688920 45918798 Read more

MD 0285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Portions of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292335Z - 300130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase in coverage over the next few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and severe winds gusts. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a north/south-oriented dryline extending across portions of north and central Texas, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving. These initial high-based/isolated storms will be capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts, given steep deep-layer lapse rates and around 40 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph. With time, deep-layer ascent accompanying the left exit region of an upper jet streak will overspread the dryline, favoring increasing thunderstorm development into this evening. Large hail will still be a concern, though a tendency for upscale growth into a cluster of storms will favor an increasing severe-wind risk as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31729924 32589870 33259853 33729824 33959782 33959734 33819673 33499644 32889652 32109704 31039810 30719877 30679931 31019983 31269976 31729924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0286 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 292340Z - 300215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes, is expected to develop across parts of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas over the next couple of hours. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a low in far southwestern Oklahoma, with a cold front located in western and northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s F. Over the last hour, low-level convergence has markedly increased along the front. In addition, a shortwave is analyzed by the RAP over the southern High Plains. As this feature approaches early this evening, large-scale ascent will increase. This, along with the increasing low-level convergence, will provide support for thunderstorm development along the front from western Oklahoma into south-central and southeastern Kansas. Convective initiation is likely between 00Z and 01Z, with coverage gradually expanding across the moist airmass in central Oklahoma. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The more intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter, with the hail threat maximized from western Oklahoma into north-central Oklahoma. Organized storms will also likely have a wind-damage threat. As the supercells move eastward into a developing low-level jet later this evening, a tornado threat will also be likely. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36649837 35529932 34889954 34439942 34189886 34139824 34469758 35989669 36429620 37079548 37509489 37889456 38379470 38689534 38069679 37379764 36649837 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300052Z - 300315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with potential for hail and severe gusts, may develop across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley this evening. The threat is expected to be too marginal for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over far northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending across Iowa. A cold front is moving eastward across eastern Kansas. Low-level convergence is focused along and near these two boundaries, which will support convective development this evening. An instability axis is analyzed by the RAP ahead of a cold front from eastern Kansas into far southwest Iowa. Along this axis, surface dewpoints in the 55 to 60 F range are contributing MLCAPE between 1000 to 1500 J/kg, according to the RAP. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near the instability axis have effective shear between 35 and 45 knots. This may support a severe potential, with isolated severe gusts and hail as the primary threats. However, forecast soundings also have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. The poor lapse rates should keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41229598 42089500 42619324 42589242 42359219 41809221 41089253 39399360 38899403 38689454 38669520 38809582 39249625 39839639 40469632 41229598 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0068 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0067 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 29 21:40:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0282 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern NE into southern SD Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 291933Z - 292230Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of locally greater than 1 inch per hour are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing early this afternoon from western NE into western/central SD, with observations indicating a mix of snow, sleet, and rain/freezing rain ongoing across the region. This precipitation band is associated with a negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across central Great Plains. Frontogenesis near/above 700 mb will continue to support strong midlevel ascent that will extend through the dendritic growth zone, resulting the potential for at least localized heavy snow rates this afternoon. Marginal low-level temperatures will tend to delay the changeover to snow and limit snow-to-liquid ratios in some areas, but snow may increase near/above 1 inch per hour in areas that experience the heaviest precip rates. In addition, weak MUCAPE will support potential for occasional lightning and convective enhancement of rates along the eastern periphery of heavier precipitation, as the primary midlevel vorticity maximum moves northeastward. Some areas outside of the heaviest snow band may continue to experience occasional freezing rain and/or sleet through the afternoon. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42820171 43680095 44230015 44339917 43969889 43509892 42819954 42000045 41950095 41990113 42000161 42130179 42820171 Read more

MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292051Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains, cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas. Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F), surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558 40049532 39459533 38509735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0284 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern upper MI and northern lower MI Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 292109Z - 300115Z SUMMARY...An increase in freezing rain rates is possible into the evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in precipitation has been noted this afternoon from northeast WI into northern lower MI, in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving into western WI. Modest isentropic ascent will continue to support light to moderate precipitation in an west-east band across the region into the evening, with some tendency for northward expansion with time. The influence of a cold surface ridge over parts of Ontario/Quebec will maintain cold surface temperatures into the evening, while modest warm advection continues aloft. This should generally maintain a favorable thermodynamic profile for freezing rain, though some mixing with sleet will be possible. Ice accretion rates could occasionally exceed 0.03 inches per hour, as noted in recent METAR observations from Alpena (KAPN). Another wave of moderate to locally heavy precipitation could approach western and northern parts of the MCD area late tonight. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45918798 45998565 45578315 44898275 44478289 44398360 44898630 44608806 44618980 44878967 45688920 45918798 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more