SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be essentially nil today and tonight as high pressure and stable continental trajectories persist from the Rockies eastward. A weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will progress northeastward toward Deep South Texas late today. Warm/moist advection will also increase with airmass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico and a gradual moistening off the coast of Deep South Texas. Weak elevated convection may develop late tonight with the possibility of a few lightning flashes, but this limited-potential thunderstorm scenario should remain focused decisively offshore. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours, encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained 30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire behavior. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will overspread the central portion of the CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough will begin to dig across the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the period while an upper low offshore the southern CA and Baja coast becomes an open wave and shifts east toward the lower CO River Valley. Strong surface high pressure over the Southeast will preclude northward transport of Gulf moisture as low-level trajectories remain oriented offshore. A dry and stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure from the Rockies into the southern Plains and Southeast will maintain a dry and stable airmass across most of the CONUS. This will preclude inland thunderstorm activity for the most part. However, a few lightning flashes are possible just offshore, or perhaps near the immediate coast of south Texas, in the vicinity of weak surface low near the Lower Texas Coast. Coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, negating the need for a 10 percent general thunderstorm delineation. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Weak low-latitude disturbance over Mexico will approach deep south TX later today. In response to this feature, a north-south surface boundary will be maintained just off the south TX/Mexican Gulf Coast. Little movement is expected with this boundary through the period, but low-level warm advection should persist along the cool side of the boundary where profiles are expected to remain fairly moist, but mid-level buoyancy should prove weak. Forecast soundings exhibit weak instability and parcels should remain too inhibited to warrant any meaningful risk for sustained deep convection capable of generating lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Shallow, weak convection continues to weaken as it sags southeast across the central FL Peninsula early this evening. Very little lightning has been noted with this band over the northeast Gulf Basin, and updrafts will likely struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 13 22:21:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 13 22:21:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to persist through midweek this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains through D4/Thur. Winds will then slowly weaken through the remainder of the week. High pressure redevelops this weekend and additional fire-weather concerns are possible. ...Southern CA... Strong offshore winds are expected to be ongoing at the start of the forecast period D3/Wed morning. Sustained 25-40 mph with gusts of 45-70 mph and single digit RH will likely support extreme fire danger across portions of the western LA Basin and Transverse ranges through noon. Critical fire-weather conditions will likely continue into D3/Wed afternoon with strong winds and low RH. Offshore gradients will gradually weaken into the evening as the upper low shifts southeastward. Upper-level flow is also forecast to slowly weaken into early D4/Thursday. The winds aloft are forecast to become more southeasterly as they weaken. This shift should favor less alignment with typical Santa Ana corridors in the LA Basin. Still, elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D4/Thurs before winds weaken below 25 mph. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into week 2, as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. This could support another prolonged period of offshore flow and heightened fire-weather concerns. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds later in the period is low. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and ACARS soundings indicate stable boundary-layer conditions on land over the western Florida Gulf Coast. Therefore, the general thunderstorm highlights have been confined to the immediate coastal areas and nearshore waters. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong sustained winds of 30-40 mph, with locally damaging wind gusts of 55-75 mph are likely overnight D1/Monday night into D2/Tuesday. Winds should peak through the morning and early afternoon D2/Tuesday across the Santa Ana corridors of Ventura and western LA County, and farther south across southern CA. Very dry surface conditions, with RH values of 8-10% are also expected. The rare combination of extremely low humidity and very strong winds will support extremely critical fire-weather conditions much of D2/Tuesday. Critical fire-weather conditions are also possible across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains and southern Coastal Ranges. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue overnight into D3/Wednesday. However, winds should slowly weaken as upper-level support diminishes. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more