SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Offshore winds are expected to increase early D2/Monday morning as high pressure intensifies over the Great Basin. Strong gusts of 30-45 mph will overlap with RH below 20% favoring critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is across western Ventura County and the Santa Ana mountains. However, occasional strong gusts and low humidity could support near-critical conditions over much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D3/Tuesday. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a blocking mid-level ridge will be maintained near the U.S. Pacific coast, and perhaps build a bit farther inland across the northern Great Basin during this period. To its south, a low is forecast to continue evolving, within mid-level troughing becoming increasingly detached from the mid-latitude westerlies. Although the NAM suggests that there may still be one modest embedded mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures around -24 to -26 C) centered over interior southern California at 12Z Tuesday, a dry low-level environment appears likely to preclude any appreciable boundary-layer destabilization until it shifts well offshore of the coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Downstream of this regime, across the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that a series of digging short wave perturbations will begin to suppress initially prominent ridging centered over the Caribbean. As one lead impulse digs southeast of the Upper Midwest, across and east-southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic, cold surface ridging to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to continue building across the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This will reinforce already entrenched dry and/or stable conditions. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge will continue to evolve offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it still appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation will begin to contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. Farther downstream, little change is forecast to expansive ridging centered over the Caribbean, although a weak perturbation may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls on its northern periphery as it accelerates across and east of the southern Atlantic coast vicinity. As a much more vigorous short wave impulse (emerging from the northern mid-latitudes) digs southeastward across the Upper Midwest, mid-level flow appears likely to become increasingly confluent east of the Rockies through the Appalachians. Beneath the confluent regime, it appears that expansive cold surface ridging will continue to build, with one prominent high developing southward across the northeastern Great Plains. Another may slowly shift east-southeastward across the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion overspreading much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida Peninsula Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that convective development will be maintained into Monday, before supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens and/or shifts eastward off the south Atlantic coast. Models continue to suggest that thermodynamic profiles conducive to lightning will generally remain confined to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it is possible that some of this activity could approach coastal areas near/north of Tampa Bay before weakening. ..Kerr.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...Morning Update... Observations show wind gusts of 30-40 mph ongoing across much of the Critical area in the Malibu Hills and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With RH in the low teens to 20%, critical conditions are likely through midday today. Gradients will weaken into the evening before rebounding again late tonight into early D2/Monday. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook areas, see the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Gulf Coast tonight. ...Middle Gulf Coast... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic upper flow will persist over the CONUS with cold/stable conditions remaining prevalent from the Rockies eastward. Weak cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the western to northern Gulf of Mexico tonight, with increasing warm/moist advection toward the middle Gulf Coast. Richer low-level theta-e will approach areas such as coastal southeast Louisiana late tonight, although the potential for inland surface-rooted destabilization should remain limited, with thunderstorms tending to focus offshore. ..Guyer.. 01/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity. Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Another in a series of mid-level impulses will overspread southern California tomorrow (Monday), reinforcing a surface pressure gradient already in place. Like previous days, offshore flow will continue across southern California. 20+ mph sustained winds (and higher gusts) overlapping with 15-20 percent RH over terrain-favoring locations will occur by afternoon peak heating, necessitating Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will remain in place over the western CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse poised to overspread central and southern California during the day into the overnight hours. As this occurs, a local tightening of the surface pressure gradient may ensue, supporting Critically dry and windy offshore conditions in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 20 mph sustained wind speeds amid 15-20 percent RH, with locally higher gusts likely. Given continued dry fuels over the region, the maintenance of Critical highlights is warranted. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will prevail across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward, deep into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, a dry and stable boundary-layer will remain in place, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more