SPC Dec 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more
