SPC Jan 19, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this afternoon into early evening, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track as a line of thunderstorms continues to migrate south/southeast across the FL Peninsula. The 30-40 mph eastward motion of individual convective elements within the line is limiting residence time within the warmer/more buoyant air mass over land and favoring maximum convective intensity along Florida's east coast. Several severe wind gusts and a few 1-inch hail stones have been reported in the past couple of hours, and consideration was given for introducing 5% hail risk probabilities. However, the linear organization of the convection should limit the potential for additional supercells, and a general weakening trend is anticipated through early evening as the line continues south/southeast. It remains somewhat unclear exactly when the severe wind threat will fully diminish, especially given recent KMLB VWP observations showing 40-50 knot winds within the 2-3 km layer ahead of the convective line. To account for this uncertainty, the Marginal risk was expanded slightly southward ahead of the line, but convection should be sufficiently weak later this evening as it moves into south FL to preclude risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this afternoon into early evening, and pose at least some risk for a tornado and locally damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track as a line of thunderstorms continues to migrate south/southeast across the FL Peninsula. The 30-40 mph eastward motion of individual convective elements within the line is limiting residence time within the warmer/more buoyant air mass over land and favoring maximum convective intensity along Florida's east coast. Several severe wind gusts and a few 1-inch hail stones have been reported in the past couple of hours, and consideration was given for introducing 5% hail risk probabilities. However, the linear organization of the convection should limit the potential for additional supercells, and a general weakening trend is anticipated through early evening as the line continues south/southeast. It remains somewhat unclear exactly when the severe wind threat will fully diminish, especially given recent KMLB VWP observations showing 40-50 knot winds within the 2-3 km layer ahead of the convective line. To account for this uncertainty, the Marginal risk was expanded slightly southward ahead of the line, but convection should be sufficiently weak later this evening as it moves into south FL to preclude risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025/ ...FL Peninsula... Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e. effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon, supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL Peninsula. Read more
