SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... 500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border, shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico, early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by 18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north, and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations, thus the severe potential appears negligible this period. ..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight as deep convection remains suppressed across the southeastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Low-level warm advection is forecast to strengthen across the FL Keys late in the period, but thunderstorm activity should remain west of the southern tip of FL through sunrise. ..Darrow.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Thunderstorm potential is low tonight as deep convection remains suppressed across the southeastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Low-level warm advection is forecast to strengthen across the FL Keys late in the period, but thunderstorm activity should remain west of the southern tip of FL through sunrise. ..Darrow.. 01/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z In the mid-levels, a large upper cyclone will settle over the eastern 2/3rds of the US as a strong Arctic air mass moves into the lower 48. Well below-average temperatures and widespread winter precipitation are expected to negate fire-weather potential through much of next week. However, the arrival of the Arctic air mass will allow strong high pressure to intensify over the Great Basin. This could support offshore flow and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions over parts of southern CA early next week. ...Southern CA... As the Arctic air mass intrudes the CONUS, ridging is forecast to intensify over the eastern Pacific late this weekend through midweek next week. As a result, high pressure should quickly intensify over the Great Basin, tightening offshore pressure gradients over southern CA. A shortwave trough is also forecast to move east of the upper ridge and deepen as it moves over parts of the Southwest D5/Mon. Model solutions have come into better agreement showing this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D5/Mon through D7/Wed. Ongoing very dry conditions, in combination with increasing potential for moderate offshore winds lend enough confidence to introduce 40% areas for D5/Mon and D6/Tues. Offshore winds could extended into D8/Thurs and beyond, but models still show considerable variability in the evolution of the relevant upper-air features. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 16 21:21:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 16 21:21:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country based on trends in recent high-res guidance. Isolated flashes remain possible over the FL Keys and eastern AZ late tonight/early Friday morning; however, lightning occurrence should remain sufficiently limited spatially/temporally to preclude thunder highlights. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime -- surrounding a cyclone settling slowly southward over Hudson's Bay -- will continue to encompass nearly all of North America Saturday. As this occurs, a surface low should continue to occlude over northern Quebec, while a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS. By the end of the period, the front should be shifting off the New England coast, already off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts, and moving southward across the Florida Peninsula. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the front crosses the Southeast, showers -- and a few thunderstorms, will continue in the preceding, weakly unstable airmass. The forecast weak lapse rates/lack of appreciable instability, and weakly stable near-surface layer, suggests little if any risk for strong/severe storms. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America. At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing, initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates northeastward across the James Bay area. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning). ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area... As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into, the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of the period. As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few thunderstorms will likely develop. While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more than minimal at best across this region. ..Goss.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Morning Update... Offshore flow over southern CA is expected to gradually diminish today as pressure gradients weaken and onshore flow returns. While winds will be weaker, terrain-enhanced gusts may still reach 10-15 mph with RH less than 10% possible across the interior valleys and higher terrain of southern CA. Thus, some localized fire-weather conditions are possible through this afternoon. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through the period. With surface high pressure remaining dominant over the southern Plains and Southeast, and generally offshore low-level flow over the Gulf, thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain minimal through tonight. One exception may be across the FL Keys, where weak MUCAPE should exist late tonight in the vicinity of a weak/remnant surface front. Still, with poor lapse rates aloft and modest large-scale ascent present, overall thunderstorm potential across this area appears less than 10%. Across the West, an upper low off the coast of southern CA and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of AZ, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be conducive for lightning. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... An eastward-progressive upper trough will influence the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic, with high pressure and continental trajectories pervasive east of the Rockies. An upper low off the coast of southern California and northern Baja will begin to shift toward the Southwest Deserts late today and tonight. Isolated weak convection may occur tonight across parts of central/southeast Arizona, but cool/dry thermodynamic profiles are not expected to be overly conducive for lightning. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/16/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A cold front will move offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Day 4/Sun. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure will envelop most of the CONUS for much of the forecast period. This Arctic airmass will bring below normal temperatures for a large part of the country, resulting in dry/stable conditions and little potential for thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Southeast on Saturday. Severe thunderstorm potential is forecast to remain low. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will quickly shift east/northeast across the Southeast on Saturday ahead of a deepening larger-scale trough extending from Ontario to the southern Rockies. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast, while southerly low-level flow maintains modest boundary-layer moisture ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Gulf moisture is not expected to make it too far inland, with far southern AL/GA the northern extent of low 60s F dewpoints. Poor low-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures will preclude surface-based instability. However, modest midlevel lapse rates will support generally less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Poor thermodynamics will limit severe potential. However, the cold front may provide enough forcing in conjunction with moderate to strong vertical shear such that a few storms could produce gusty winds Saturday morning and afternoon. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more