Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper shortwave ridging will spread east from the Plains into the Midwest on Thursday. This will occur as two shortwave upper troughs move across the Southwest and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by early Friday. At the surface, a deepening low will shift east across the Canadian Prairies, with an attending surface trough extending southward through much of the U.S. Plains states. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will remain over the Southeast, and Gulf moisture will remain suppressed will south of the U.S. Gulf coast. A cool, dry and stable airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low across the CONUS today. ...Coastal Texas... Low-level warm advection is expected to remain focused along the TX Coast during the first half of the period. Notable surface boundary that is currently located over the northwestern Gulf Basin will be shunted southeast as mid-level flow becomes more northwesterly with the passage of a short-wave trough over the central Gulf States. Scattered elevated convection is currently noted along the cool side of the boundary, but lightning has struggled to materialize with this activity as updrafts are a bit too shallow/weak. Forecast soundings along the TX Coast suggest a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 750mb, but EL temperatures are marginal for lightning. A few of the more robust updrafts may penetrate levels that could support lightning, but thunderstorm activity is expected to remain a bit too sparse (less than 10 percent) to warrant an outlook this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak mid-level disturbance is ejecting across northeast Mexico toward deep south TX early this evening. This feature should encourage weak elevated convection along the cool side of an offshore coastal boundary tonight. 00z sounding from BRO exhibits a modestly steep 3-6km lapse rate (7 C/km), and while moist, MUCAPE is only 100 J/kg. Lapse rates will likely remain a bit too weak, given the moisture, for updrafts to attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 14 22:18:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 14 22:18:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are unclear. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri. Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with upper-level flow and offshore gradients. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Thunderstorm potential remains very limited across the CONUS with only a low chance of a lightning flash or two off the far southern TX coast early Wednesday. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Expansive surface high pressure will continue to dominate much of the CONUS through the period, with minimal thunderstorm potential. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is forecast to occur tonight across parts of deep south TX. While modest MUCAPE should eventually develop over this region, limited large-scale ascent suggests thunderstorm chances should remain low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...19z Update... Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors. Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2 (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late. As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night. Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late. As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night. Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period. As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry continental air will prevail across much of the country through Thursday morning. Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes. However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time. ..Goss.. 01/14/2025 Read more