SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today, supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated highlights introduced. Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields. However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore boundary will continue to sag southeast tonight as mid-level short-wave trough ejects southeast across the central Gulf States. A few thunderstorms are currently noted about 100 mi southeast of GLS near this boundary, but the risk for lightning with the shallow elevated convection over land is minimal. ..Darrow.. 01/16/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 15 22:26:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 15 22:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending from a low moving into/across western Ontario, will continue advancing southeastward across the Plains. This trough will begin to partially phase with a second trough shifting east across the Desert Southwest toward the southern Plains. In tandem with the Canadian upper low, a deep surface cyclone is forecast to cross Ontario, reaching the James Bay vicinity overnight. A strong/trailing surface cold front will advance across central portions of the U.S., reaching a position from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. ...Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys to the Florida Panhandle... As a cold front shifts southeastward toward/into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys late in the period, low-level theta-e advection atop a cool/stable boundary layer will lead to modest elevated destabilization. This will likely be sufficient to permit evolution of isolated thunderstorms, within a broader/developing area of convection. At this time, with the stable boundary layer precluding appreciable surface-based storm potential, and modest CAPE above, it appears that storms will remain weak/disorganized, and thus sub-severe, despite an otherwise favorable kinematic environment. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...19z Update... Offshore winds should gradually weaken D2/Thursday morning as onshore flow returns by the afternoon/evening. Lingering strong gusts are possible in the terrain favored areas of the western LA Basin. However, with weakening winds and rising humidity, fire concerns are expected to be much lower than the last several days. See the prior outlook for info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... The surface high pressure gradient should begin to relax, with offshore flow gradually diminishing as the mid-level cutoff low morphs into an open wave and overspreads the Baja Peninsula tomorrow (Thursday). Before the pressure gradient weakens though, at least a few more hours of dry and breezy offshore flow will persist in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the Los Angeles metropolitan area, with Elevated highlights introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will advance slowly eastward Thursday, while the next feature -- a short-wave trough over western Canada -- digs southeastward, moving into the northwestern/north-central U.S. overnight. At the surface, cold/dry/stable conditions will persist. A pronounced cold front, associated with the digging/western upper system, will likewise shift southeastward out of Canada, but preceding high pressure will preclude thunder potential ahead of the front -- and elsewhere across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. Offshore winds are expected to increase this afternoon with gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The strong winds and minimum humidity near 10% will support critical fire-weather conditions over western portions of the LA Basin and in the higher terrain of southern CA. Fire concerns should slowly diminish this evening. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level easterly flow will overspread southern California with the approach of a 500 mb cutoff low today, providing enough upper support, in tandem with a persisting surface pressure gradient, to promote continued dry offshore flow. By afternoon, sustained winds may exceed 20 mph (with higher gusts) over several locales, from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. RH may dip to 10-20 percent with the stronger wind speeds, necessitating continued Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Coastal Texas... Scattered elevated convection is expected to continue across the coastal plain as warm/moist advection persists while a weak mid-level disturbance moves eastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. Deeper lightning-producing convection will focus over the open Gulf waters, but a few lightning flashes could occur near the coast. This potential is substantiated by the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, which features 400 J/kg MUCAPE (based around 840mb) and a thermodynamic profile conducive for charge separation. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time. By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass. Read more