SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

MD 0034 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern portions of the Carolinas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 110327Z - 110600Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will continue into tonight. The heaviest ice accretion rates will be in the eastern Carolinas for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...03Z mesoanalysis depicts strong 925-850 mb WAA advection overspreading the Carolinas, likely supporting above-freezing temperatures in this layer, while surface temperatures remain at or just below freezing. The aforementioned thermodynamic vertical profile supports continued freezing rain potential, as demonstrated by surface observations on a widespread basis. The primary band of heavier precipitation (and associated higher ice accretion rates) is rapidly shifting eastward across the eastern Carolinas. As such, .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates are most likely closer to the coast over the next few hours. Still, MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows continued lighter rainfall (likely freezing) still ongoing as far west as the immediate lee of the Appalachians. As such, at least light freezing rain should continue for several more hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33967767 33837903 33878082 34378200 35048216 35508176 36107965 36277778 36167691 35617616 35157631 34547688 33967767 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 10 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0032 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible. ..Thornton.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 35038501 35278472 35438440 35708379 35938286 35778201 35168155 34408234 34118328 33678477 34028542 34178549 35038501 Read more

MD 0033 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern South Carolina into central North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 102334Z - 110330Z SUMMARY...Heavier freezing rain rates will continue to spread into northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the evening hours. .06 inch/3 hour rates are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm-air advection continues to intensify across GA into SC ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While a wintry mix is ongoing across central portions of NC into SC, the continued WAA in the 850-700 mb layer will encourage freezing rain to become the predominant mode of wintry precipitation into the evening hours, as evident via 22Z RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis. Surface observations depict an increase in freezing rain already underway across northern SC into central NC, with heavier ice accretion rates likely this evening. Furthermore, high-resolution model guidance also shows a high likelihood of .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates, especially in the 00-06Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34298312 34588309 34978262 35538191 36028018 36007895 35607866 34807927 34247988 33798058 33638124 33528175 33498235 33548272 34298312 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Heightened fire-weather concerns are expected across portions of southern CA through the extended forecast period. Amplified mid-level flow will result in a favorable pattern for sustained offshore winds through midweek next week. A western US trough will deepen this weekend before cutting off. At the same time, building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient across much of southern CA. With little recent rainfall, dry fuels and strong offshore winds, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds beginning D2/Saturday evening are expected to continue to strengthen overnight into D3/Sunday. Coincident with low RH and the lack of recent precipitation, elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are likely D3/Sunday before offshore gradients temporarily weaken later into early D4/Monday. Still, dry conditions with RH values below 25% are expected across much of southern CA from offshore flow. The next major surge of offshore flow is expected to begin later D4/Monday and continue through midweek next week. The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to undergo significant amplification as an embedded perturbation moves along the western side of the trough off the CA coast. East northeasterly mid and low-level flow will develop late D4/Monday as the upper trough begins to cut off. This will allow 40-50 kt of mid-level east/northeasterly flow to overspread offshore gradients of 4-6 mb across much of southern CA. Strong offshore winds will develop into D5/Tuesday with gusts in the higher terrain and gaps to 45-60 mph. Coincident with several days of poor RH recovery (20-40%) and downsloping, minimum RH values below 15% are expected. Widespread, potentially high-end, critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across western portions of the LA Basin and into the higher terrain of southern CA. Critical fire-weather concerns should continue into D6/Wednesday before the offshore gradients slowly weaken D7/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... As the initial strong offshore winds over southern CA fade into early D2/Saturday, a brief lull in fire-weather activity is expected before another surge of offshore flow develops overnight into early D3/Sunday. Moderate offshore pressure gradients of 2-4 mb are expected to bolster winds across parts of Santa Barbra and LA/Ventura Counties through the overnight hours. While RH is not expected to be as low initially and overnight (15-25%), strong gusts of 20-40 mph through the terrain-favored locations in the western LA Basin and across Orange County are likely to support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns from late D2/Saturday into early D3/Sunday morning. Strong gusts and critical fire-weather concerns will likely continue through much of D3/Sunday. The Elevated area was expanded and a Critical area was added over the higher terrain and gap areas in coordination with LOX and SGX. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the West Coast as another upper trough impinges on the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). A surface low will move across the Midwest in tandem with the Mississippi Valley upper trough, with secondary surface low development likely over the southern High Plains. Downslope flow is likely over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. However, questions remain regarding how low RH will dip by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. An upper trough traversing the West Coast will encourage some dry offshore flow across southern California. Though guidance differs on how dry the surface airmass will be, sustained offshore wind speeds may exceed 15 mph, especially in terrain-favored areas, warranting Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 10 19:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of today and tonight. ...20Z Update... A weak secondary surface low appears to be forming along coastal areas near/south of Pensacola FL. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may be maintained, perhaps eventually migrating inland into areas northeast of the Florida Big Bend by mid to late evening. However, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization is forecast to remain confined to areas well offshore. Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, forecast soundings do indicate that warming and moistening near/just below the 700 mb level may contribute to weak CAPE developing inland across the western Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia late this afternoon through tonight. However, it appears that this instability will remain capped by relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, which likely will tend to minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning. Overnight, as cyclogenesis commences near the North Carolina coast, weak boundary-layer based destabilization appears possible in a narrow corridor across/east of the Outer Banks vicinity by 08-12Z. This may be accompanied by a developing band of showers; but forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers near/above 500 mb will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, at least until activity approaches the Gulf Stream, where deeper/more substantive destabilization appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within a highly amplified longwave pattern over much of the central/southern CONUS, an embedded positively tilted upper trough will continue to develop south-southeastward over northern Mexico, while another embedded shortwave trough amplifies over the Midwest/OH Valley. Ahead of these features, robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue to foster widespread precipitation regionally, with isolated thunderstorm potential focused along/near the central Gulf Coast where weak MUCAPE may exist. Surface-based instability is expected to generally remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Still, given ample lift and strong low-level winds near the eastward-moving cold front and a near-coastal surface low, there is some potential that gusty winds augmented by a low-topped convective line could occur along the immediate coast from far southern AL into parts of the FL Panhandle. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Coastal LA... A drifting mid-level impulse over northern Mexico will finally eject east-northeast into the northwest Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper trough amplifies in the West. While this impulse should dampen, it will support weak cyclogenesis and renewed low-level warm-moist advection across the northwest Gulf towards the north-central Gulf Coast. Guidance indicates a surge of rich moisture with 60s surface dew points should approach coastal LA by Sunday night as a pronounced baroclinic zone becomes established. Mid-level lapse rates should not be as poor as on D1, but still weak enough to yield only scant elevated buoyancy near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the offshore waters overnight. The northern extent of this activity may brush far southeast LA by early morning Monday. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes to the Elevated area over parts of the LA Basin. Morning observations show offshore gusts of 30-40 mph are ongoing across terrain-favored areas of the LA Basin. This is expected to gradually diminish through the morning and afternoon as the offshore pressure gradient and easterly flow aloft weaken. Still, low humidity (RH values from 10-20%) and the strong gusts appear likely to support a continued fire-weather threat into this afternoon. The most likely corridor for sustained elevated to near-critical conditions will remain over the terrain-enhanced features of the western LA Basin and farther south into the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. Fire concerns should then abate overnight as upper-level support and offshore gradients weaken further. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 01/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for potential lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/10/2025 Read more