SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 11 19:49:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 11 19:49:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...20z Update... Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period with offshore gusts of 25-50 mph through the terrain-favored corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Winds should begin to weaken midday and into the evening before stronger gusts reemerge into early D3/Monday. Continued poor RH recoveries and downslope warming will keep the air mass dry with RH below 25%. Critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially near active fires. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge may continue to build offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, it appears that a digging downstream short wave perturbation (within a branch of cyclonic flow initially across California into the Southwest) will contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast by 12Z Tuesday. Farther downstream, another cyclonic circulation (initially digging across the Minnesota international border vicinity) is forecast to continue southeastward across the upper Great Lakes vicinity, as one short wave perturbation digs around its western through southern periphery and weaker impulse pivots to its east and northeast. With larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the Caribbean also forecast to remain prominent, a generally confluent mid-level regime is likely to be maintained to the east of the Rockies. Models suggest that this will continue to support the development of expansive cold surface ridging, with the leading edge of one reinforcing cold intrusion expected to overspread much of the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. Within a remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent associated with warm advection may maintain convective development into Monday. However, this probably will tend to weaken/diminish while spreading across the northeastern Gulf, toward the Florida Gulf coast through Monday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas Sunday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this period. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow, initially encompassing much of western into central North America, will become increasingly split. One embedded short wave perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota international border vicinity by 12Z Monday. Another one or two digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity. Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low, currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians Sunday through Sunday night. Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment now established across much of the nation will generally be maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale ascent. Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night. ..Kerr.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A moderate, but short duration offshore wind event is expected today and tonight. Currently weak offshore winds observed over parts of southern CA are expected to increase in coverage/intensity beginning late this afternoon. Offshore pressure gradients of 2-5 mb will support gusts of 25-45 mph, mainly overnight into D2/Sunday. Widespread low humidity (15-20%) will overlap with the strong gusts through terrain-favored areas of Los Angeles/Ventura into Orange Counties tonight. This will allow sustained elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to develop given receptive fuels and ongoing fire activity. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Influenced by an amplified large-scale pattern, high pressure will prevail across the south-central/eastern CONUS through tonight in the wake of an upper trough and cold front quickly exiting the eastern seaboard early today. An associated prevalence of cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward is expected to preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the western U.S. through tomorrow (Sunday), which will continue to reinforce a surface pressure gradient with dry offshore flow over southern California. Continuing from Day 1, 20+ mph sustained offshore wind speeds and 15-25 percent RH should be common in the higher terrain areas surrounding Los Angeles, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical highlights given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TERRAIN-FAVORING AREAS SURROUNDING LOS ANGELES... ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress south-southeast along the West Coast as another mid-level trough amplifies over the central CONUS today. A surface low will traverse the southern High Plains while surface high pressure builds over the Interior West. A pressure gradient will develop over southern California through the day, encouraging dry offshore conditions. Wind speeds may exceed 20 mph amid 15-20 percent RH in terrain-favoring areas surrounding the city of Los Angeles, fostering Elevated to Critical wildfire-spread conditions given dry fuels. Critical conditions are most likely late tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more