SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday. ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough affecting much of the U.S. will shift southeastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Wednesday. This will result in persistence of cold continental air across much of the country. Given the dry/stable conditions prevailing, thunderstorm development will be precluded across most of the country. One exception may be over Deep South Texas, where scattered, elevated showers may occur, in the vicinity of a weak surface low just offshore. A lightning flash or two may occur inland with this convection, but coverage appears likely to remain low, thus not warranting inclusion of a 10% coverage area at this time. ..Goss.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... An upper trough with strong positive tilt will continue to prevail across the U.S. Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front over southern Florida will continue shifting slowly southward and eventually offshore, while a second/weak front -- at the leading edge of a reinforcing intrusion of arctic air -- shifts southeastward across the Northeast/Midwest/Plains states. A weak upper disturbance -- embedded in fast westerly flow aloft -- is forecast to shift across northern Mexico and Deep South Texas, and on into the western Gulf of Mexico late. A few showers -- and possibly a lightning flash or two -- cannot be ruled out over parts of South Texas -- most likely near the coast or offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected as cold/continental air prevails across much of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LA BASIN AND TRANSVERSE RANGES.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA... ...17z Update... Early morning observations show strengthening northeasterly offshore winds are developing across the higher terrain and interior valleys of Ventura and LA Counties, as an upper-level shortwave trough moves south along the coast. Recent gusts at OXR and CMA to 40-50 mph, should become more widespread as offshore pressure gradients strengthen across portions of western LA County and the western Santa Monica Mountains through midday. Coincident with critically low RH to 10-15%, several hours of high-end critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Winds should weaken slightly this afternoon and evening, as the shortwave trough moves southwest before deepening into an upper low. Offshore pressure gradients will quickly strengthen once again, after sunset tonight, as the upper low strengthens and a mid-level jet max of 30-50 kt approaches from the northeast. Offshore gradients of -10 to -14 mb (LAX-TPH) will support 30-40 mph sustained winds with locally damaging gusts to 55-75 mph through western LA and Ventura County Santa Ana corridors. The strongest winds are expected late tonight into early D2/Tuesday, as the maximum in upper-level support aligns with the strongest offshore gradients. Very low RH, below 10%, and the strong wind gusts will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions conducive to extreme spread rates and fire behavior with any ignitions. ..Lyons.. 01/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will begin to impinge on the West Coast as a positively tilted mid-level trough meanders over the southern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday). Guidance consensus shows deep-layer offshore flow over the southern California coastline, driven by a strong surface pressure gradient with offshore flow, overspread by a northeasterly 500 mb wind maximum. The deep-layer offshore flow will support widespread 20-40 mph sustained surface winds (with higher gusts) through at least Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, when RH will dip to at least 10-15 percent. Similar to Day 1 (today), the best chance for Extremely Critical conditions tomorrow/Tuesday will be over the Ventura Valley toward the San Bernardino mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance agreement is greatest in showing particularly dangerous wildfire-spread conditions lasting for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA VALLEY TO THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in broader cyclonic flow aloft is poised to morph into a cut-off low off of the southern California shoreline today. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the Great Basin, fortifying a pressure gradient over southern California through the period. During the first few hours of the period, and during the later half of the day into early Tuesday morning, some strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is likely. For much of the day into early Tuesday morning, widespread sustained offshore winds over 20 mph are likely, with terrain-favoring areas experiencing 30-40 mph winds (perhaps with higher gusts) at times. RH is also expected to dip to 10 percent in spots during peak winds. As such, widespread Critical conditions are likely from the Ventura Valley toward the Laguna Mountains. Extremely Critical conditions may develop in the Ventura Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, high-resolution guidance members show the greatest agreement in longer-lasting, intense surface winds (perhaps exceeding 50 mph) that are capable of supporting extreme fire behavior, as well as the very rapid spread of any new wildfires that may develop. ..Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South to the Southeast, and across the Rockies, will maintain a dry/stable continental airmass. Thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front will permeate well south of the U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Gulf of Mexico. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture will result in dry/stable conditions, and thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may approach the northeastern Gulf Coast later today; however, the majority of lightning will remain offshore. ...Northeastern Gulf Coast... Negligible height changes are expected across the Gulf Basin today within a broad west-southwesterly flow regime. Early in the period, veered LLJ will focus across the northern FL Gulf Coast, and this will encourage weak elevated convection that will gradually sag southeast through the period, along/ahead of a frontal surge. Buoyancy is forecast to remain quite weak through the period as boundary-layer temperatures and dew points will prove inadequate for SBCAPE inland. Will maintain low probabilities for lightning near the Coast, but the main risk for a few elevated thunderstorms will likely hold mostly offshore through the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing northeast along the middle TX Coast. This feature will lose its identity as it ejects into the central Gulf States later tonight. Scattered, shallow convection is noted ahead of this feature from the northwestern Gulf basin, extending northeast along the LA Coast into southern AL. Buoyancy is limited inland as surface dew points are only in the lower 50s along the coast due to easterly boundary-layer flow. Elevated instability should gradually increase overnight and forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy for lightning discharge with updrafts rooted near 900mb. Isolated thunderstorm potential continues. ..Darrow.. 01/13/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 12 22:05:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 12 22:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Widespread and high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected early this week over portions of southern CA. A strong upper low and easterly mid-level flow are forecast to develop off the Pacific Coast. As the upper low cuts off, mid-level flow will align with strong offshore pressure gradients over the western LA Basin and mountains. Offshore wind gusts to 40+ mph and single digit RH values will support dangerous fire-weather conditions. ...Southern CA D3/Tuesday-D4/Wednesday... Strong northeasterly offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying overnight D2/Mon into D3/Tues. Bolstered by 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft within the aforementioned cutoff low, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain of the western LA Basin. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass, with single digit RH values expected. The rare combination of very strong winds, extremely low RH, and very dry fuels will support an extended period of widespread critical fire-weather conditions over much of southern CA. Extremely critical conditions are also likely across parts of Ventura County D3/Tues morning where the strongest northeast winds are expected. Strong winds and critical fire concerns should continue into D4/Wed morning before the upper low gradually moves farther offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors in the LA Basin. Elevated to critical conditions will likely persist across the Santa Monica Mountains and into parts of Santa Barbra Mountains through D5/Thurs morning. Fire-weather concerns will be limited beyond D5/Thurs as the upper low pivots north and offshore flow weakens. However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen again into next week, potentially forcing another prolonged period of offshore flow. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20z Update.. No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist over much of the CONUS today, with meager low-level moisture limiting thunderstorm potential over a large majority of the country. One exception may be along/near the coast from far southeast LA to the western FL Panhandle vicinity. A weak surface low is forecast to develop across the northwest to north-central Gulf tonight. Increasing low-level moisture and warm advection may support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across this region through early Monday morning. However, it still appears likely that appreciable surface-based instability and greater thunderstorm chances will remain mostly offshore. Read more