SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... A series of positively tilted mid-level troughs will progress southeastward across the western and central CONUS today, supporting the maintenance of surface high pressure across the Inter-mountain West. Dry offshore winds should continue off of the southern California coastline through at least the morning hours. However, the pressure gradient should diffuse through the day as the first in a series of mid-level troughs moves away from southern California. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions should be most prevalent during the morning, and will wane during the afternoon hours. The best chance for any Critical conditions (i.e. 20+ mph sustained offshore winds with 15 percent or less RH) will be across the San Jacinto to Laguna mountain ranges. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will deepen and spread east/northeast across much of the South and Midwest on Saturday in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage. This will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture, with dry and stable conditions precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms and windy/rainy conditions are likely along the northern Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A complex and progressive upper-air pattern will exist today, with the main feature of interest being a large, positive-tilt upper trough across the central US. Northern parts of this trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes, while the southern end stalls over northern MX. Ahead of this trough, strong southwest flow aloft will spread across the Southeast. The stronger height falls will spread into the Northeast into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will briefly exist across the Rockies during day, before a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest dives southeastward across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Appalachians, with relatively cool air at the surface all the way south to the Gulf Coast. A surface low is forecast to be near the southern LA Coast early today, moving toward the FL Panhandle by 00Z, and then reforming near the coastal Carolinas early on Saturday. ...Northern Gulf Coastal Region... Strong southerly winds just off the surface will result in warm/moist advection and widespread precipitation from LA/MS eastward to the southern Appalachians through 00Z, and across the Carolinas overnight. Given the cool surface air mass in place, and presence of widespread clouds and precipitation, minimal destabilization will likely preclude a severe storm risk. Models indicate little if any SBCAPE over land, with < 100 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. The poor lapse rate environment will therefore limit destabilization, though scattered embedded thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front where it intersects the Gulf Coast, and northward in the warm advection regime. Given the strong lift along the cold front, and very strong shear, gusty winds, possibly augmented by heavier precipitation, may occur. However, the conditional risk of severe weather is not great enough to introduce any risk areas. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 Read more

MD 0027 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0527 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 092327Z - 100330Z SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation should continue into the evening hours, with heavier snow likely later tonight. DISCUSSION...700 mb warm-air and moisture advection is increasing across AR with the approach of the mid-level trough, which is currently progressing across the southern Plains. The low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime is supporting heavier precipitation across central AR, as shown by both MRMS mosaic and KLZK regional radar imagery. Bright banding is ongoing across southwestern into central AR, with reports of heavier snow rates just north of the bright banding area. RAP forecast soundings shows temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer hovering around the freezing mark, which will continue to support a mix of snow, sleet, and perhaps some freezing rain over the next few hours. With time, cooling within this layer will promote primarily heavy snow, including 1+ inch/hr rates, later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34399402 34719379 35069249 35199141 35159078 34899054 34319109 34079242 34079301 34149368 34399402 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep, positive-tilt upper trough will sink southeastward across the Plains tonight, with strengthening southwest flow aloft from TX into the lower MS Valley. While strong warm advection will occur around 850 mb out of the south from eastern TX into LA tonight, minimal instability is expected. Further, any instability that does develop will be elevated above the stable boundary layer. As such, severe weather is unlikely, but a few lightning flashes may occur. ..Jewell.. 01/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 9 21:31:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0026 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Texas into far southeast Oklahoma and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 092106Z - 100100Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and perhaps some snow/sleet mix will continue spreading northeastward across northeast Texas into the early evening. Some locations could see freezing rain rates around 0.10 inch/3 hours. DISCUSSION...Recent mosaic radar data shows a swath of mixed winter precipitation spreading northeastward across north-central TX -- where surface temperatures are hovering around 32-33F. Within a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, and at the nose of an eastward-shifting plume of warm advection, this activity will continue expanding across northeast TX into this evening. Here, forecast soundings indicate a deep/saturated profile with a warm-nose temperature around 0.1-0.2C atop sub-freezing surface conditions -- favoring partial melting of descending hydrometeors. This should support primarily freezing rain, though some mix of sleet/snow will also be possible. Freezing rain rates around 0.10 inch/3 hours will be possible in some locations across northeast TX into far southeast OK and southwest AR through the evening. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33509657 33859559 34159415 33919365 33519363 33039489 32809603 32799651 33119687 33509657 Read more

MD 0025 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091827Z - 092230Z SUMMARY...A nearly stationary band of heavy snow with rates around 0.5-1 inch per hour (locally 1.5 inch) should persist across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwest OK for much of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KAMA depicts an increasingly organized band of moderate to locally heavy snow extending from the TX Panhandle into northwest OK. This organized band is likely being aided by a strengthening low/mid-level frontogenetic circulation ahead of the primary large-scale trough. Given the slow motion of the trough, and an embedded impulse tracking east-northeastward across the TX South Plains (evident in WV imagery), this band should remain persistent and nearly stationary through much of the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by earlier observed soundings) are likely supporting a convective enhancement to snowfall rates, and recent visible satellite imagery corroborates this as well. As a result, 0.5-1 inch per hour rates (locally 1.5 inch) should persist under the core of the snow band before it becomes less organized. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35190283 35940131 36599959 36719919 36549901 36299911 35909978 35110133 34480241 34730287 35190283 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire weather concerns. ...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday. This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate (30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However, considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event. As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL TERRAIN... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of Riverside and San Diego counties in far southern California. An overall weakening of the offshore wind gradient is expected through the day Friday; however, recent guidance suggests that critical (20-25 mph) wind speeds should persist well into Friday morning, and perhaps linger in isolated locations until Friday afternoon. These winds are expected to remain mainly in the immediate lee of the coastal terrain with localized gusts up to around 60 mph before 18 UTC. Given the persistent downslope flow regime, conditions are expected to remain very dry with RH values generally near or below 15% and will support critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will shift south and east on Friday. This feature is expected to lose amplitude as an upstream trough moves into the Northwest. As a result, surface high pressure in the Great Basin/Southwest should lose intensity rather quickly after the early morning hours. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient will have been in the process of gradually weakening for several hours prior to Friday morning. The weakening trend will continue, especially during the afternoon. Upper-level wind support will also quickly dissipate after the early morning as the trough pushes farther east and upper-level ridging increases in the region. RH will likely remain low through the day. 5-20% RH will be fairly widespread by the afternoon. Winds will generally reach 15-25 mph. Some locally higher speeds are possible within the terrain. Given the overall large-scale trends and high-resolution ensemble guidance, critical fire weather conditions are expected to occur locally and primarily tied to terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

MD 0024 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 091730Z - 092130Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible across portions of central and north-central Texas, with from 0.05" to 0.10" expected over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows increasing precipitation coverage across southwest TX, coincident with strengthening warm-air advection and large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. The northeasterly motion of this area of precipitation should continue, taking it into central/north-central TX over the next few hours. Temperatures across central/north-central TX are near freezing, but an additional degree or two of cooling is possible as precipitation cools the column, helping to offset some of the low-level warm-air advection. As such, the surface wet-bulb temperature, which has been gradually shifting northward, will likely stall along its current location, which is roughly along a line from BBD to SLR. Freezing rain will be possible north of this line over the next several hours, with total precipitation from 0.05" to 0.10" expected. ..Mosier.. 01/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31179947 31839918 32429838 32869728 33039617 32329621 31139873 31179947 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more