SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTH AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Areas affected...North and western New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 280623Z - 281130Z SUMMARY...Brief, but intense, snow showers along a strong cold front will move into northern and western New York through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour are possible along the northeastern shores of the Lower Great Lakes. DISCUSSION...A strong cold front, evident by a pronounced leading band of heavy snow showers, has been pushing southeast out of Ontario/Quebec over the past several hours. Higher reflectivity values (up to 30 dBz) and occasional lightning flashes have been noted along portions of the front, indicative of the deep convective nature of the snow bands. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph have also been noted with the passage of the front across Ontario/Quebec, as well as occasional visibility reductions. Similar conditions are possible as the snow bands cross the Lower Great Lakes and move into northern and western NY. A combination of rapidly falling temperatures along/behind the front, bursts of heavy snow within the stronger bands, and winds gusting up to 25 mph will support snow squall conditions across northern/western NY, and possibly into central NY, over the next several hours. Prior to the passage of the front, southwesterly winds oriented along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will continue to support moderate to heavy lake effect snow bands on the northeastern shores of both lakes. Recent surface observations have reported visibility reductions between 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile. Despite 20-30 mph winds, blowing snow model output suggests that these visibility reductions are attributable to moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Recent guidance supports this idea and hints that rates up to 1-2 inches/hour are possible prior to the passage of the front. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 42287757 42067847 41987899 41977948 42047976 42197993 42337993 42407972 42617936 42877914 43097911 43237913 43387891 43517827 43417754 43457705 43567674 43827654 44107653 44357633 44807553 45007507 45067476 45077399 45067354 45037338 44897327 44657319 44427333 44217352 43997380 43697430 42337741 42287757 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the south-central U.S. ahead of this system. At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the second half of the period. A broad zone of low-level warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly elevated convective development through the second half of the period. ...Central Texas... Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak elevated destabilization. As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm activity to occur after dark. While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints) will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability occurrence. Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area. Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE. ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dry and cool airmass will prevail across the CONUS on Tuesday. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across northern Arizona where cold air aloft and steep lapse rates may result in some weak instability sufficient for a few lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity through late afternoon/early evening has been focused across western AZ under an upper low where very cold temperatures aloft, combined with modest low-level warming, has supported sufficient buoyancy for lightning production. This environment was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding; however, buoyancy is expected to quickly diminish as surface temperatures rapidly cool with the loss of daytime heating. Falling LightningCast probability values over the past 30-60 minutes suggest this trend is already underway. While a flash or two appears possible during the 01-02 UTC time frame, lightning potential through the remainder of the overnight hours appears sufficiently low to remove thunder probabilities. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 27 22:01:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 27 22:01:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also chances for precipitation. Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country. The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35% range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too limited for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more