SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the western U.S., but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as a trough approaches the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, a few thunderstorms may develop in parts of north-central California from San Francisco eastward into the Sierra. Isolated lighting strikes may also occur along the Oregon coast. No severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-northwest mid-level flow is in place across most of the U.S. At the surface, high pressure is dominating across much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard, with a cold front moving southward through the central states. This front will usher another high pressure system southward into the north-central U.S. As this front moves south, the dry air over much of the continental U.S. will be reinforced. The relatively dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 3 20:21:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 3 20:21:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a belt of high momentum flow extending from west to east across the northern half of the Lower 48. Model guidance shows this flow regime amplifying as a mid-level ridge builds over the Great Plains and a trough continues to develop over the eastern Pacific to the west of the West Coast. In the low levels, a cold front will push southward across the central Great Plains and through much of the Midwest during the period. A moist conveyor will extend from the eastern Pacific northeastward through northern CA and into the northern Rockies. Showers are forecast within the aforementioned corridor but thunderstorms are not expected. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough is progged to be moving across the Midwest/Ohio Valley day 4 (Thursday), along with a weak surface wave moving along a baroclinic zone separating Arctic air to the north, and a more temperate/modifying continental airmass to the south. Late day 4 (Friday morning), the low is forecast to undergo significant cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, with the trailing surface front becoming realigned in an east/west orientation from the Carolinas to the southern Plains. During the day 4 period, as the cold front progresses southward across the Mid South in the immediate wake of the weak frontal wave, showers and isolated thunderstorms -- initially confined to the cool side of the front -- will likely develop across the Mid South in a weakly destabilizing warm sector. With strong/weakly veering flow through the lower troposphere, storms which do develop would be fast-moving, and could intensify locally to near severe levels. However, current expectations are that the degree of surface-based destabilization will be limited, and thus overall severe potential tempered as well. While low-probability severe risk across parts of the Mid South may be required in later outlooks, the risk appears too low to highlight at this time. Day 5, the next short-wave trough is forecast to be crossing the Rockies, and will likely begin impinging on the Plains overnight. This will support new frontal low development along the pre-existing west-to-east baroclinic zone. At this time, projections are that a developing low may exist over the Ozarks vicinity, but with limited CAPE expected in the evolving warm sector, severe weather potential would appear minimal at best. Day 6, the low is forecast to move rapidly east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then on into/across New England overnight. As this occurs, the trailing portion of the baroclinic zone should surge southeastward with time -- reaching a position from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Gulf Coast States late. Once again, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely occur within the warm sector, but again, limited CAPE should continue to characterize the pre-frontal environment, tempering overall risk for severe weather. The front should be continuing southward Day 7, moving off the Gulf Coast during the period. Limited CAPE and weaker flow with southward extent should continue to limit any severe risk, continuing through day 8 as the front shifts across Florida through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude flow aloft is forecast to persist across the U.S. Wednesday, while a short-wave trough initially over the Colorado vicinity progresses east-northeastward into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. At the surface, a very weak surface wave -- along the persistent west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward from the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley area -- is forecast to move eastward along the boundary with time. Some minor northward wobble of the boundary may occur ahead of the low, but little overall frontal progression is expected through the period. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... As the aforementioned, weak surface wave moves east-northeastward, ahead of the associated upper disturbance, low-level southerly flow across the eastern U.S. will result in isentropic ascent of higher theta-e air atop the persistent surface baroclinic zone. As DPVA spreads eastward, the increase in quasigeostropic ascent combined with weak/elevated destabilization will result in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Most of the convection is expected to evolve during the second half of the period, spreading into the central Appalachians overnight. At this time, it appears that weak lapse rates will offset the increase in low-level theta-e advection, resulting in only minimal elevated CAPE atop the strongly stable boundary layer. Though shear will be plenty sufficient to otherwise support organized storms, the lack likelihood for any surface-based risk, and insufficient elevated instability to support large hail, suggests that severe risk will be minimal through the period. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more