SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions are possible as northerly/northeasterly winds continue in the Sacramento Valley into the afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are also possible in parts of the Upper Midwest. These conditions will be both marginal and brief and no highlights will be added. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions are possible as northerly/northeasterly winds continue in the Sacramento Valley into the afternoon. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are also possible in parts of the Upper Midwest. These conditions will be both marginal and brief and no highlights will be added. ..Wendt.. 09/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves eastward and ejects over the northern/central Plains today and tonight. As the trough moves east, a lee low/trough will quickly deepen, supporting strong surface winds over the Plains. A cold front approaching from the west will move through the Great Basin also supporting strong surface winds over the Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West and western Plains through this evening. ...Central and northern Plains... As the upper-level trough approaches from the west this morning, southerly surface winds are expected to rapidly increase over much of the High Plains. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as low pressure and the trailing lee trough deepen. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be considerably higher farther east, as low-level moisture advects northward. Still, strong gusts of 25-30 mph are likely with pockets of afternoon RH as low as 25-30%. Strong winds will accelerate drying of fine fuels after recent scattered precipitation, with critically dry fuels expected over much of the central and northern Plains by this afternoon. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. Despite some recent drying, area fuels are not particularly dry after rainfall in the last 48 hours. However, given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely, especially over parts of western CO and eastern UT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121640- Read more

WW 669 TORNADO AL FL CW 121050Z - 121800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 550 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...As Francine's center continues moving northward over MS and weakens further through midday (per NHC forecast), a slot of wind/moisture/instability fields favorable for supercells and a few tornadoes will shift slowly northward/inland as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL to 35 miles south southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 668. Watch number 668 will not be in effect after 550 AM CDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 16030. ...Edwards Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 12 13:38:10 UTC 2024.

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121440- CW Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts (some significant) are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Over the CONUS, in mid/upper levels, a highly amplified initial pattern will become more blocky through the period. A strong northern-stream trough with an intermittently closed cyclone is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the Canadian Rockies southward over ID to the central Great Basin. The 500-mb low is forecast to move northeastward across western and northern MT to near the southwestern corner of SK by the end of the period. By then, the attached trough will deamplify slightly and become more positively tilted, extending from the low to central UT. A baroclinic leaf with strongly difluent flow aloft precedes the trough in satellite imagery over southeastern ID, western WY and central MT, with an eastward shift and some reinforcement expected today as small vorticity maxima pivot northeastward out of the trough. Meanwhile, an initially separate, weak 500-mb low now over the Red River near PRX, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Francine aloft, are progged to merge over the upper Delta/Mid-South region today into tonight. The result after 06Z should be a slow-moving mid/upper-level low over AR, nearly stacked above the weakening low-level vortex just to the east around MEM. [See NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity guidance on Francine.] An anticyclone aloft should form later today and expand tonight northeast of that low, over the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a warm front across northernmost FL to the coastal FL Panhandle, then slightly inland over the western Panhandle, southwestern AL and southeastern MS. This boundary will move slowly northward/inland today, demarcating the north rim of mid-70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, a surface low was drawn over eastern MT west of GDV, with slow-moving cold front south-southwestward across northeastern/central WY. The low and front will continue slow/intermittent eastward progress today, then move into the western Dakotas around 22-00Z, then eastward to the central Dakotas late overnight. ...Northern Great Plains... Strong-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening, along and behind the front, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern WY. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe gusts. Some of the activity may aggregate upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing northward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. Thunderstorms may develop along the front in early-mid afternoon, as well as in and near the Bighorns, where diurnal heating of elevated terrain preferentially removes MLCINH earliest. A corridor of favorable surface moisture will remain near and behind the front and ahead of this convection. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will cool and steepen low/middle-level lapse rates, as large-scale ascent spreads over the area, both ahead of the ejecting mid/upper trough and in the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved 300-mb jet segment. This will occur atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer containing nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. A northerly flow component west of the front will enhance storm-relative winds in the inflow layer, as well as low-level and deep-layer shear, strengthening lift and helping to maintain and further organize the convection. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential. Convection forming later and farther east near the front over the western Dakotas, from late afternoon into evening, also may pose a strong to locally severe gust threat for a few hours, and the marginal outlook area has been expanded eastward somewhat to give more room for that process. Flow aloft will bear a substantial component parallel to the convective axis, indicating a largely training or linear configuration is possible, along the western rim of a 50-60-kt LLJ fostering warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeastern CONUS... Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to continue moving northward over MS, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Accordingly, associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day well east-southeast to southeast of center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by unsuitably stable air in heavy precip and north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 J/kg range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. The threat should diminish overnight as the airmass slowly stabilizes inland, and the system continues to weaken overall. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts (some significant) are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Over the CONUS, in mid/upper levels, a highly amplified initial pattern will become more blocky through the period. A strong northern-stream trough with an intermittently closed cyclone is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the Canadian Rockies southward over ID to the central Great Basin. The 500-mb low is forecast to move northeastward across western and northern MT to near the southwestern corner of SK by the end of the period. By then, the attached trough will deamplify slightly and become more positively tilted, extending from the low to central UT. A baroclinic leaf with strongly difluent flow aloft precedes the trough in satellite imagery over southeastern ID, western WY and central MT, with an eastward shift and some reinforcement expected today as small vorticity maxima pivot northeastward out of the trough. Meanwhile, an initially separate, weak 500-mb low now over the Red River near PRX, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Francine aloft, are progged to merge over the upper Delta/Mid-South region today into tonight. The result after 06Z should be a slow-moving mid/upper-level low over AR, nearly stacked above the weakening low-level vortex just to the east around MEM. [See NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity guidance on Francine.] An anticyclone aloft should form later today and expand tonight northeast of that low, over the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a warm front across northernmost FL to the coastal FL Panhandle, then slightly inland over the western Panhandle, southwestern AL and southeastern MS. This boundary will move slowly northward/inland today, demarcating the north rim of mid-70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, a surface low was drawn over eastern MT west of GDV, with slow-moving cold front south-southwestward across northeastern/central WY. The low and front will continue slow/intermittent eastward progress today, then move into the western Dakotas around 22-00Z, then eastward to the central Dakotas late overnight. ...Northern Great Plains... Strong-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening, along and behind the front, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern WY. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe gusts. Some of the activity may aggregate upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing northward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. Thunderstorms may develop along the front in early-mid afternoon, as well as in and near the Bighorns, where diurnal heating of elevated terrain preferentially removes MLCINH earliest. A corridor of favorable surface moisture will remain near and behind the front and ahead of this convection. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will cool and steepen low/middle-level lapse rates, as large-scale ascent spreads over the area, both ahead of the ejecting mid/upper trough and in the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved 300-mb jet segment. This will occur atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer containing nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. A northerly flow component west of the front will enhance storm-relative winds in the inflow layer, as well as low-level and deep-layer shear, strengthening lift and helping to maintain and further organize the convection. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential. Convection forming later and farther east near the front over the western Dakotas, from late afternoon into evening, also may pose a strong to locally severe gust threat for a few hours, and the marginal outlook area has been expanded eastward somewhat to give more room for that process. Flow aloft will bear a substantial component parallel to the convective axis, indicating a largely training or linear configuration is possible, along the western rim of a 50-60-kt LLJ fostering warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeastern CONUS... Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to continue moving northward over MS, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Accordingly, associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day well east-southeast to southeast of center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by unsuitably stable air in heavy precip and north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 J/kg range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. The threat should diminish overnight as the airmass slowly stabilizes inland, and the system continues to weaken overall. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 09/12/2024 Read more

MD 2058 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 668... FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 668... Valid 121001Z - 121300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for showers and thunderstorms with potential to produce tornadoes may linger near coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle beyond daybreak. Farther inland this potential appears more limited, but could increase some across parts of southern into central Alabama toward 10-11 AM CDT. A new Tornado Watch will be issued prior to expiration of Tornado Watch 668. DISCUSSION...The surface low associated with Francine is now progressing into south central Mississippi, near/southeast to east of McComb. Based on the surface pressure fall/rise couplet evident in observational data, the center may gradually take on a more northerly to north-northwesterly track toward the Jackson vicinity into mid morning. As this occurs, strongest low-level wind fields are forecast to continue shifting inland to the north and northeast of the circulation, generally above a residually stable boundary-layer air mass. However, low-level hodographs continue to become enlarged and clockwise curved across and inland of the coastal western Florida Panhandle, and model forecast soundings suggest that these profiles, potentially conducive to convection with occasionally strengthening mesocyclones and a risk for tornadoes, may persist beyond daybreak. Complicating the tornadic potential, mid/upper 70s surface dew points have largely remained confined to the offshore waters, maintaining stable conditions inland of perhaps immediate coastal areas. This may not change much into the 13-14Z time frame. Farther inland, at least some surface warming may increasingly begin to destabilize the boundary-layer northward through portions of south central Alabama by 15-16Z. However, based on forecast soundings, it remains uncertain whether this will occur before low-level wind fields/hodographs become less conducive to tornadic potential, as Francine continues a northward track. ..Kerr.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29598527 30088608 30218694 30778733 31348780 31948787 32148708 31798609 31148504 30308497 29598527 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 20 NNE MOB TO 50 N MOB. A NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 12/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-121100- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-121100- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON GMZ630-631-633-634-635-636-650-655-675-750-770-121100- CW Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 20 NNE MOB TO 50 N MOB. A NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 12/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-121100- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-121100- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON GMZ630-631-633-634-635-636-650-655-675-750-770-121100- CW Read more

WW 668 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 120310Z - 121100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1010 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A few transient small supercells within the convective bands of Francine will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes tonight into the early morning across the Watch area. This threat will gradually spread northward and inland tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Slidell LA to 65 miles southeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 667... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 13020. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

MD 2057 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 668... FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 668... Valid 120642Z - 120845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for showers and storms with potential to produce tornadoes may be in the process of diminishing across southeastern Mississippi, but it could still increase across coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent coastal Alabama through 3-5 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Rapid weakening of Francine continues, with notable drying circulating around its southern through southeastern periphery and likely to continue overspreading southeastern Mississippi and the Mobile Bay vicinity during the next few hours. The surface low is in the process of migrating near/northwest through north of the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity. As the north-northeastward motion continues, model forecast soundings indicate that initially enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs across southeastern Mississippi will begin to shrink within the next hour or two. Instability associated with mid/upper 70s surface dew points is probably needed for stronger convection to overcome the warm mid-levels. Aside from immediate coastal areas around Gulf Shores AL, this remains largely offshore, where a number of rotating cells have been evident the past few hours. However, some inland advection still appears possible through daybreak across at least the coastal western Florida Panhandle, where low-level hodographs are still forecast to become sufficiently enlarged and clockwise curved to support at least a conditional risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 29608568 29498600 29488655 29588724 29858786 30118819 30528810 30478737 30438713 30448631 30238586 29608568 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 10 E GPT TO 35 S PIB TO 5 NNE PIB. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON MSC035-039-041-047-059-111-131-120840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the upper trough and the associated cold front continue to the east, high pressure will quickly develop behind them over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. A much cooler and quiescent air mass will also develop, keeping winds relatively light with increasing relative humidity. Additionally, precipitation associated with the upper trough should moderate fuels across much of the West and Plains. A few stronger gusts may remain across parts of the southern High Plains and eastern WY. Pockets of lower RH may also remain in place temporarily before moisture increases later tonight. However, the expected duration and coverage of these locally stronger winds and drier conditions should be brief. With only modest overlap of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels, fire-weather concerns are too localized for any highlights. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more