Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Uncertainty remains high in the medium-range period, in terms of both pattern evolution, and attendant potential for severe weather. Models agree in general that early in the period, a quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S., and a roughly west-to-east surface baroclinic zone will be in place from the central/southern Plains vicinity eastward to the Carolinas. Initially, any convective potential should remain limited, and largely confined to the cool side of the surface front. However, emerging model differences become evident, even early in the period, in terms of the eastward advance of various short-wave disturbances through the background westerlies. This progression of short-wave energy -- varying in degree from model to model -- results in correspondingly varying degrees of amplification of the flow field aloft, and also correspondingly, varying levels of mass response at the surface. Within the generally more amplified ECMWF, even early in the period but particularly through the middle and later stages of the forecast, likelihood for greater northward transport of higher theta-e air would exist, meaning greater potential for destabilization, and -- given flow aloft more than sufficient for organized convection -- greater potential for severe weather. With all of that said, given what appears to be a pattern of inherently low predictability, delineating areas of severe-weather potential would appear imprudent at this time, at the medium-range time frames. Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... A zonal flow configuration aloft is forecast at the start of the Day 2 period across the U.S., but with weak amplification expected with time, as a weak low near the southwestern Canada coast deepens and retrogrades slowly southwestward. As this occurs, broader/weakly cyclonic flow will gradually evolve near and off the West Coast. In response, weak downstream ridging will occur over the central U.S., and troughing still further downstream, over the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across eastern Canada and the Northeast, and southward across the Plains and Midwest. By late in the period, the front should extend from near the New England coast and Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward to the southern Plains. While weak low-level theta-e advection is expected across the southern U.S. south of the cold front, it should remain insufficient to yield CAPE supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, Arctic air expanding southward across the northern U.S. will prove hostile to deep convection. Late in the period, short-wave troughing moving into California will likely support an increase in showers -- and potentially an embedded lightning flash or two near the central Coast. Overall potential however does not appear to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area at this time. ..Goss.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level westerly flow will be in place today across the nation today as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will remain entrenched over much of the central U.S. The relatively cool and dry air will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms through tonight. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, westerly flow will be in place this evening into tonight across most of the continental U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening in far northwest Washington, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Elsewhere across the nation, thunderstorms are not expected, mainly due to the influence of a high pressure system in the central and eastern U.S., which is associated with relatively cool and dry air. ..Broyles.. 02/02/2025 Read more

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther south and west on Thursday. ...Southern High Plains... A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance, 40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course, model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 1 20:11:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0062 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0062 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 012008Z - 020015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected to develop across portions of central MN and the Northland through late this afternoon. Snowfall rates exceeding 1" per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest observational trends, including shallow convective elements in visible satellite imagery, increasing snowfall rates, and decreased visibility, suggest heavier snowfall potential is materializing across portions of central MN and the Northland this afternoon. A stout low-level jet, and to some extent DPVA associated with an upstream shortwave trough, is supporting enhanced ascent across this region. As the low level flow slowly continues to veer, isentropic ascent should become maximized within the outlined area where it will be juxtaposed with higher moisture content through the DGZ and aloft. In addition to the heavier rates, surface winds near 15 to 20 kt will aid in reduced visibility through late this afternoon. ..Barnes/Hart.. 02/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47309476 46739477 46419479 46279468 46119449 45899425 45759405 45579361 45549338 45659301 45749286 45889267 46179240 46519231 46669210 46799187 47029170 47219188 47359224 47459234 47459234 47519234 47639247 47759264 47869296 47929325 47989361 47969386 47949402 47819436 47639457 47309476 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the Day 1 Outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal flow regime will exist during the day on Monday, with some gradual height falls occurring late across the West and over the Northeast. A large area of high pressure over the Southeast will prevent appreciable destabilization over land, although limited/shallow moisture return will occur over TX with southerly surface winds. Elsewhere, a midlevel moist plume will result in precipitation across northern and central CA, but poor lapse rates will likely limit even elevated convective potential. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will be primarily zonal over the central US through the weekend. In response, lee troughing will persist with west/southwesterly winds over much of the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible as area fuels dry with warm temperatures and low humidity. However, the overlap of strong winds and low humidity is not expected to support widespread critical concerns. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions should continue into D2/Sunday as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further drying of area fuels. While zonal flow aloft is expected to be fairly strong, it is displaced to the north. This should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of generally westerly flow aloft will exist across the northern half of the CONUS on Sunday, with a leading wave moving across the OH Valley and Great Lakes. A strong midlevel temperature gradient will remain across WA, MT, and into the Dakotas and MN, as the base of a low-amplitude wave skirts those areas. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the East, and across the southern Plains and into the Southwest. Gradual low-level moistening may occur late toward TX with modest southerly winds developing beneath the midlevel westerlies. However, any appreciable instability will remain offshore. Otherwise, little to no instability is forecast to support thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today over the Olympic Peninsula of northwest Washington. ...WA... Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over most of the continental US today. The one exception will be in northwest WA, where strong/deep onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft (< -30C) will pose a risk of a few lightning flashes over the Olympic Peninsula. ..Hart/Barnes.. 02/01/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 1 15:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows low-amplitude, progressive flow regime across the Lower 48 states. In the low levels, a cool/stable airmass will influence much of the eastern U.S. via surface high pressure centered over Ontario and moving into New England late tonight. Conditions will be hostile to thunderstorm development for almost the entire CONUS, with the exception associated with low-topped convection and perhaps a stray lightning flash possible near the WA coastal vicinity. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to depict generally zonal flow across the U.S. through the medium-range period. By the start of the period, a prominent baroclinic zone at the leading edge of an Arctic airmass is progged to have become established in a roughly west-to-east manner from the Mid-Atlantic region west-southwestward into the southern Plains. Weak/subtle perturbations forecast to move across the U.S. within the background/fast westerly flow regime are expected to modulate the north-south position of this boundary, but with its average location remaining roughly unchanged through day 6 -- after which evolving model differences cast more substantial uncertainty into the forecast. At this time, it appears that mainly elevated convection -- and perhaps a limited potential for hail -- may evolve primarily north of the front, in the late day 4 to early day 6 time frame, from the central U.S. eastward into the Tennessee Valley/Mid South region. However, at this time, risk appears to limited/low to highlight with a 15% probability area. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft is expected to prevail across the U.S. Monday, with the zonal regime trending weakly toward a western trough/central ridge/eastern trough configuration through the period. At the surface, a weak frontal wave along the slowly sagging baroclinic zone should shift out of the Plains across the Midwest through the day, and then across New England overnight. In the wake of this wave, the surface front will continue shifting southeastward/southward across the central and eastern states. By late in the period, the front should stretch from coastal New England southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic region, and then west-southwestward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys into Texas. While very weak low-level theta-e advection is expected ahead of the southward-moving front, moisture return should be quite insufficient to support appreciable destabilization. Meanwhile, with Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, a thermodynamic environment insufficient to support deep moist convection is forecast to persist across the U.S. through the period. ..Goss.. 02/01/2025 Read more