SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, mid-level flow is west to west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. At the surface, pressure is relatively high over much of the nation. The resultant dry and cool conditions will make thunderstorms unlikely across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunder potential is evident across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow on Monday will gradually amplify a bit as a broad upper trough takes shape across the West with an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude feature will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, the air mass will remain largely stable over land, with high pressure over the Southeast. Limited elevated instability may develop within a midlevel moist plume which will affect northern into central CA. However, overall thunderstorm chances appear below threshold. Elsewhere, low-level moisture will return into parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. However, this air mass should remain capped beneath warm midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal flow aloft over the Rockies will aide in deepening a lee trough over much of the High Plains. Coincident with warm temperatures and dry surface conditions, gusty winds could support some localized fire-weather risk. However, the lack of stronger winds, and more modest fuel receptiveness should limit greater fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions should continue today as the lee low/trough remains over the High Plains. Continued warm and dry conditions will support further curing of area fuels. Stronger, but displaced zonal flow aloft should keep surface wind speeds modest for much of that period across areas of the drier/more receptive fuels. Localized elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible from southeastern NM into West TX. However, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to support an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern tier of states within a low-amplitude, progressive flow pattern. A surface ridge will extend across the East into the central Gulf states with a lee trough over the High Plains. Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states such that thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Smith/Bentley.. 02/02/2025 Read more