SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities. ..Smith/Bentley.. 01/31/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent. Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time. The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal at best across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Discussion... The large-scale pattern will remain largely unchanged on Sunday, with zonal flow aloft to remain in place. Disturbances in the flow field -- largely across the northern U.S. and southern Canada -- will continue advancing eastward through the period. A weak surface low is progged to lie near the Manitoba/North Dakota border early Sunday, associated with the aforementioned short-wave energy embedded in the fast westerlies aloft. This low is expected to deepen with time, as it shifts across Ontario, allowing continued southward advance of a cold front across the Intermountain West, and the Plains. With a reinforcing advance of Arctic air spreading southward behind the front, and high pressure prevailing south of the boundary, little risk for thunderstorms is evident through the period. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 30 22:11:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302117Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front, persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and scattered showers over the warm sector. Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front through this evening. Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics, with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221 31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176 34719118 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 30 19:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more