MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF AL INTO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131721Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado may increase into this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS. In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100 m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment. A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized clustering of convection can develop with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... LAT...LON 32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822 35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637 33948592 32638572 32228565 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A marginal tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging to severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the CONUS portion of the large-scale pattern this period will be characterized by a "dirty" Rex block in the East, and troughing in the West. The block will be composed of an anticyclone drifting eastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and a small, deep-layer cyclone -- resulting from the merger of a weak, midlatitude, mid/upper-tropospheric low with the low/middle-level remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine -- centered currently near BVX. This low should weaken gradually and meander slowly over the Mid-South, possibly drifting east-southeastward back across the MEM area through the period, but with negligible movement on the synoptic scale. In the northern stream, a mid/upper-level cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern SK -- will eject northeastward to northern MB and devolve to an open-wave trough by 12Z tomorrow. In its wake, broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with mostly minor embedded shortwaves/vorticity maxima -- will cover the northwestern 1/4 of the CONUS. To its east, midlevel DCVA/ascent from a weak trough trailing the cyclone, combined with low-level warm advection and gradual moistening, will support general thunder potential over portions of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary to warm front extending from off the SC Coast across southern GA and eastern/northern AL, intersecting a weak cold front there, then as an occluded front into the low over AR. This boundary should drift diffusely northward through the period, while weakening. A stationary to slow cold front was drawn from southern MB across central ND and western SD, and should drift eastward over the central Dakotas today through tonight. ...Southeast... Isolated, mostly short-lived supercells will be possible today, mainly in a belt of low-level convergence from parts of central/ eastern AL and western GA into the Tennessee Valley, with a marginal tornado threat. Farther south, in weaker shear (but greater instability), a few of the stronger cells or small clusters may produce damaging gusts. A corridor of relatively maximized low-level shear/SRH remains near the old, diffuse warm-frontal zone well southeast of the center of Francine's remnants. Both that and a moisture/buoyancy axis to its west (centered roughly over the axis of the outlooked corridor) should move little today, given the slow filling and lack of motion of the related deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-South. Rich low- level moisture will persist in this corridor, with surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F, and low LCLs. Weaknesses of both surface winds and midlevel flow will sandwich a 35-40-kt east-southeasterly to southeasterly LLJ that keeps hodographs somewhat enlarged and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range over eastern/northern AL into southern mid TN. With some localized help from boundaries (outflow or differential-heating), a brief tornado is possible. A few of the most vigorous, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of localized strong to marginally severe gusts, especially over southern areas where peak MLCAPE may reach about 2000 J/kg. Activity generally should weaken this evening and overnight as the airmass stabilizes and the remnants of Francine continue to decay. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 09/13/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance has trended increasingly consistent with the evolution of a closed mid/upper low initially over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday. This low should become an open wave as it pivots northeast towards the northern High Plains by late Tuesday, likely inducing surface cyclogenesis in the eastern MT vicinity. Despite increasing agreement in track/timing, the consensus trend is for a weakening mid-level jet ejection, in the meridional flow regime ahead of the trough. As such, the amplitude of the severe-storm risk is still uncertain, but an area of interest for a future 15 percent highlight remains evident across the northern High Plains. This shortwave trough should dampen and slow as it encroaches on the persistent blocking pattern in the East. In the wake of this wave, the next in a series of shortwave impulses should amplify along the Pacific Coast mid-week. Thereafter, predictability drops considerably by late week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe storms remains negligible. A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains. This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign synoptic pattern. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Discussion... At least isolated thunderstorm potential is evident across a larger portion of the CONUS on D3, but the threat for organized severe storms remains negligible. A blocking upper pattern will hold in the East, with a stout mid-level anticyclone over the Lower Great Lakes and the remnants of post-TC Francine anchored in the Lower MS Valley. A strong mid/upper jet approaching the Pacific Coast will amplify a closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA by Monday morning. Strengthening large-scale ascent downstream may yield a broadening swath of low-probability thunderstorm potential in the West with only scant/meager buoyancy north of AZ. Afternoon buoyancy should be largest across parts of the central High to northern Great Plains. This could support a few strong, sub-severe storms around to just after peak heating, amid weak/modest deep-layer shear and a benign synoptic pattern. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Central High Plains to central/western SD... As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal delineation. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the threat for organized severe storms is negligible. ..Grams.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast... The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate instability is expected to develop. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

MD 2064 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 671... FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 671... Valid 130028Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 671 continues. SUMMARY...A small area of conditional tornado potential remains over parts of central Alabama, but probabilities will continue to drop over time. DISCUSSION...Prior to sunset, visible satellite showed areas of agitated CU along a confluence line, and west of a warm front which now stretches from near Birmingham AL into southwest GA. A moist air mass remains over the region, with precipitable water in excess of 1.80". Scattered cells, primarily elevated, developed over east-central AL, and persist this evening. Despite the moist troposphere, instability is not particular strong, and, confined to a relatively narrow axis just west of the warm front. Low-level shear remains favorable in a conditional sense for rotating storms/supercells, however, it appears unlikely at this point that any robust convective machinations will develop to take advantage of said shear. ..Jewell.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31408685 32018706 32558715 33048737 33298757 33368728 33058653 32488581 32098573 31578589 31298638 31408685 Read more

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W Y22 TO 40 WSW N60 TO 35 NNW SDY TO 75 SW GGW. ..WEINMAN..09/13/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 672 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-085-091-105-130240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY NDC001-013-023-041-061-105-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BURKE DIVIDE HETTINGER MOUNTRAIL WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 672 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 122235Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeastern and Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify late this afternoon and evening and spread northeast into the Watch area. The stronger thunderstorms, including a mix of cells and linear clusters, will be potentially capable of a severe threat. Severe gusts will probably be the primary severe hazard (60-85 mph), but large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores as well (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Glasgow MT to 55 miles northeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670...WW 671... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 21050. ...Smith Read more