No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 17 13:58:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Mosier.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough centered over northeast NV. This feature will become negatively tilted and move into the High Plains late today while the low moves east-northeast reaching southeast MT Wednesday morning. Strong attendant forcing for ascent will overspread the High Plains this afternoon into the early evening with an accompanying 50-60 kt 500-mb speed max moving into CO and eventually western NE/SD. In the low levels, a lee trough will sharpen with southerly flow maintaining a fetch of seasonably adequate moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) into the High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. Initial storm activity late this morning through the early afternoon will develop over the high terrain of CO/northern NM and move/develop east into richer moisture by mid-late afternoon. The increasing large-scale ascent coupled with heating will eventually result in numerous storms mainly in the form of linear clusters evolving into linear bands of convection by early evening. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Based on some of the latest CAM data, have expanded the Slight-Risk equivalent wind probabilities farther south into northeast NM/northwest TX Panhandle. Some consideration was given to expand the ENH Risk into southwestern SD, but the later timing of storms lends enough uncertainty to preclude this change this outlook update. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the approaching mid-level low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for locally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Mosier.. 09/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should remain positive tilt and slow moving into this weekend. Guidance has trended towards greater consistency with the evolution of its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the trough. Based on current timing, a focused corridor of severe potential may develop on D5/Saturday afternoon in the southern High Plains. With a stout mid-level anticyclone anchored over south TX and 500-mb temperatures warmer than -2 C across roughly the southeast two-thirds of TX, a potential corridor of 15 percent probabilities would likely be confined to the mesoscale. Predictability is too low to confidently highlight such a corridor at this temporal scale. After D5, predictability on the synoptic scale wanes considerably. Guidance spread becomes large with the evolution of northern-stream shortwave troughs and their influence on this southern-stream wave. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should remain positive tilt and slow moving into this weekend. Guidance has trended towards greater consistency with the evolution of its attendant belt of enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the trough. Based on current timing, a focused corridor of severe potential may develop on D5/Saturday afternoon in the southern High Plains. With a stout mid-level anticyclone anchored over south TX and 500-mb temperatures warmer than -2 C across roughly the southeast two-thirds of TX, a potential corridor of 15 percent probabilities would likely be confined to the mesoscale. Predictability is too low to confidently highlight such a corridor at this temporal scale. After D5, predictability on the synoptic scale wanes considerably. Guidance spread becomes large with the evolution of northern-stream shortwave troughs and their influence on this southern-stream wave. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon to early evening on Thursday across central to eastern Minnesota and north-central Iowa. ...Upper Midwest... A vertically stacked cyclone near the ND/SK/MB border should move northeast over MB through the period. Predictability has increased with the placement of the trailing cold front arcing south on Thursday afternoon. In the mid-levels, modestly steepened lapse rates should overspread this boundary within a belt of moderately enhanced west-southwesterly flow. Given a confined plume of rich boundary-layer moisture, a corridor of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg should develop by mid-afternoon. Guidance consensus suggests scattered thunderstorms should form along the MN portion of the cold front towards mid to late afternoon amid an upper-level difluent flow regime. More isolated activity may occur southward into the Mid to Lower MO Valley. A vertically veering wind profile with height should support supercells with a primary initial risk of large hail. With relatively modest upper-level winds and the expected coverage of storms along the front, upscale growth into linear clusters will be possible with a corresponding increase in damaging winds. A couple tornadoes may occur given adequate low-level hodograph curvature and the moist boundary layer. The overall severe threat may diminish relatively rapidly after sunset. With neutral mid-level height change as the MB cyclone pulls away, in conjunction with progged weakening of 700-mb wind fields after 00Z, convective intensity should wane. This will likely be further aided by the confined buoyancy plume and drier airmass east. ..Grams.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Dakotas, within the base of a negatively tilted midlevel trough/low moving northeastward across the northern High Plains. A tight pressure gradient peripheral to a related surface cyclone over eastern MT will promote strong post-frontal surface winds across western SD. While these winds and around 20 percent RH would typically warrant fire-weather highlights, substantial precipitation over the past week, and additional expected rainfall on Day 1/Tuesday, limit confidence in fuel receptiveness. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough, accompanied by strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow, will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A related lee cyclone will deepen near western SD, promoting a tight pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of western NE during the afternoon. Here, diurnal heating along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture plume should yield 20-30 percent RH. Despite these marginal RH reductions, the strong/gusty winds will still favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area during the evening. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible across a portion of the Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... A vertically stacked cyclone over eastern MT at 12Z Wednesday should drift towards the ND/SK/MB border area. A mid-level jetlet of 50-60 kt winds at 500 mb should be confined within the dry slot, near the ND/SD border area on Wednesday afternoon. A dryline should become established from the eastern Dakotas to the southern High Plains. Remnant convective outflows from overnight to decaying morning convection are expected in the confined moist sector ahead of the dryline. The primary cold front attendant to the cyclone should gradually push east in the Dakotas and eventually merge with the retreating dryline early morning Thursday. Large-scale ascent ahead of the dryline appears nebulous for surface-based storms during the afternoon to early evening. Lingering outflows and areas of greater boundary-layer heating should serve to focus isolated thunderstorm development. Guidance varies greatly with placement of convection given the weak forcing for ascent regime. But with a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg and 30-35 kt effective bulk shear, a conditional lower-end supercell environment will exist. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures will contribute to weaker lapse rates south of the Mid-MO Valley, likely being a mitigating factor to more robust updrafts where sustained storms can occur. The bulk of guidance, outside of the 00Z GFS and RRFS, suggest sustained storm development farther north will primarily be a result of low-level warm theta-e advection Wednesday night. As such, severe storm coverage will probably remain rather isolated. ..Grams.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible across a portion of the Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... A vertically stacked cyclone over eastern MT at 12Z Wednesday should drift towards the ND/SK/MB border area. A mid-level jetlet of 50-60 kt winds at 500 mb should be confined within the dry slot, near the ND/SD border area on Wednesday afternoon. A dryline should become established from the eastern Dakotas to the southern High Plains. Remnant convective outflows from overnight to decaying morning convection are expected in the confined moist sector ahead of the dryline. The primary cold front attendant to the cyclone should gradually push east in the Dakotas and eventually merge with the retreating dryline early morning Thursday. Large-scale ascent ahead of the dryline appears nebulous for surface-based storms during the afternoon to early evening. Lingering outflows and areas of greater boundary-layer heating should serve to focus isolated thunderstorm development. Guidance varies greatly with placement of convection given the weak forcing for ascent regime. But with a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg and 30-35 kt effective bulk shear, a conditional lower-end supercell environment will exist. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures will contribute to weaker lapse rates south of the Mid-MO Valley, likely being a mitigating factor to more robust updrafts where sustained storms can occur. The bulk of guidance, outside of the 00Z GFS and RRFS, suggest sustained storm development farther north will primarily be a result of low-level warm theta-e advection Wednesday night. As such, severe storm coverage will probably remain rather isolated. ..Grams.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph are likely in parts of northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas and western Nebraska. A marginal potential for severe wind gusts is also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Rockies, and in parts of eastern Florida. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... A mid-level low will move across the Intermountain West today, as an associated upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted. A 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet in the base of the trough will move into the central Rockies. Ahead of the system, a lee trough will deepen across the central and northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist airmass will be located just to the east of the surface trough from eastern Colorado into the western Dakotas and eastern Montana. During the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the mid-level trough across the central and northern Rockies, with these storms moving east-northeasteastward across the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon and evening. A severe threat will likely accompany many of the stronger storms. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A slab of strong large-scale ascent, and an associated mid-level jet will move into the central Plains late this afternoon. This will coincide with strengthening low-level flow and maximized instability, which will make severe storms likely along parts of a convective line moving across the central High Plains. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Gusts above 70 mph will be possible ahead of an organized line segment that is expected to move across the central High Plains during the early evening. The potential for severe wind gusts will extend southward and westward into the southern and central Rockies, but the threat will be more isolated in areas where instability remains weak. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level low will move across the Intermoutain West. Ahead of the low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph are likely in parts of northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas and western Nebraska. A marginal potential for severe wind gusts is also expected to develop in parts of the southern and central Rockies, and in parts of eastern Florida. ...High Plains/Central and Southern Rockies... A mid-level low will move across the Intermountain West today, as an associated upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted. A 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet in the base of the trough will move into the central Rockies. Ahead of the system, a lee trough will deepen across the central and northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist airmass will be located just to the east of the surface trough from eastern Colorado into the western Dakotas and eastern Montana. During the day, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the mid-level trough across the central and northern Rockies, with these storms moving east-northeasteastward across the central and northern High Plains during the afternoon and evening. A severe threat will likely accompany many of the stronger storms. Ahead of the approaching trough, partial clearing will result in strong surface heating this afternoon over the central High Plains. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1500 J/kg from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A slab of strong large-scale ascent, and an associated mid-level jet will move into the central Plains late this afternoon. This will coincide with strengthening low-level flow and maximized instability, which will make severe storms likely along parts of a convective line moving across the central High Plains. The greatest combination of instability, lift and deep-layer shear is forecast across western Nebraska and northeast Colorado, suggesting an enhanced threat for severe wind gusts. Gusts above 70 mph will be possible ahead of an organized line segment that is expected to move across the central High Plains during the early evening. The potential for severe wind gusts will extend southward and westward into the southern and central Rockies, but the threat will be more isolated in areas where instability remains weak. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level low will move across the Intermoutain West. Ahead of the low, divergent south to south-southeasterly flow will be in place across the northern Rockies and northern Plains. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop in the north-central Rockies and move north to northeastward across the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Dakotas northwestward into northeast Montana. As large-scale ascent and moderate deep-layer shear overspread the northern High Plains late this afternoon and evening, organized storms will be possible. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. ...Eastern Florida... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an associated surface trough moves across the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, along with surface heating will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the surface trough. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z in eastern Florida have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This, combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be enough for a marginal threat for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/17/2024 Read more

WW 0673 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 673 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E N60 TO 60 ENE MOT TO 70 NE MOT. ..SPC..09/17/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 673 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-029-069-077-089-113-119-125-135-170440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI CLEARWATER KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU NDC005-019-027-035-063-067-069-071-079-083-095-099-103-170440- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON CAVALIER EDDY GRAND FORKS NELSON PEMBINA PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WALSH WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 673 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 170005Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Minnesota North-central and Northeast North Dakota * Effective this Monday night from 705 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop and intensify this evening near and north of a boundary, with at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 105 miles west of Devils Lake ND to 45 miles southeast of Warroad MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this evening across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated tornado threat will continue across parts of eastern North Carolina. A marginal severe threat may continue in parts of the Four Corners region. ...Northern Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the north-central U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be in northern North Dakota, where the RAP is analyzing a distinct vorticity max. At the surface, a low is in southeast Montana with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central and northeast North Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the front from northern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. This activity is located along and to the north of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Near this convection, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. RAP forecast soundings in the same area have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Organized bowing line segments with a wind-damage threat will also be possible, especially in areas where low-level lapse rates are steep due to warmer surface temperatures. The severe threat will likely continue through much of the evening, as a strong to severe line segment moves east-northeastward across north-central and northeastern North Dakota. ...Eastern North Carolina... A tropical cyclone will move northwestward across northern South Carolina this evening. Rainbands extend from north of the center east-southeastward across central and eastern North Carolina. The latest RAP has moderate instability in place along much of the North Carolina coast, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Moorehead City WSR-88D VWP has a gradually veering wind profile from the surface to about 4 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 320 m2/s2. This suggesting the environment will be favorable for rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. The tornado threat will be maximized with cells that remain semi-discrete and are close to the coast where surface dewpoints are higher. The threat is expected to gradually shift northward into the Cape Hatteras area by late evening. ...Four Corners Region... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over northern California, with southwest flow from much of the Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. The RAP has a pocket of instability near the Four Corners with another in eastern Arizona. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in these areas. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe this evening, with isolated severe winds and hail as the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 09/17/2024 Read more

WW 0673 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0673 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 16 21:40:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162059Z - 162300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few hail reports, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. A watch may be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...With a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern CONUS, storms are developing near a remnant boundary across portions of northern North Dakota this afternoon. South of this boundary, solar heating has resulted in air mass recovery in the wake of an MCS this morning. Dewpoints across central North Dakota are in the upper 60s and low 70s with temperatures generally near 80, resulting in appreciable CAPE. Additionally, some shear is present, with 10-15 kts 0-1 km shear from the KBIS VWP and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis. With initial discrete convection, some severe hail is expected given deep CAPE profiles and modest low-level shear. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, given an increasing low-level jet this evening. However, the window for such a tornado threat may be short before convection grows upscale due to merging cold pools. From there, a damaging wind threat should become more dominant through the evening hours. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49109754 49039681 48739677 48189700 47389805 46959977 47030117 47400170 47960158 48380098 49089921 49109754 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to persist over much of the western CONUS through the extended forecast period. At the same time, ridging is expected to build over the central and eastern parts of the country keeping the upper-level pattern relatively stagnant. By midweek, a mid-level low associated with broader troughing over the West will eject over the northern Rockies/Plains. Strong surface winds are expected near a deepening low and cold front, but widespread wetting rainfall is also expected. This pattern will continue later in the week and into next weekend as a second trough is forecast to eject over the central and southern Plains. While strong winds are again expected, area fuels are also likely to be tempered by rainfall. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear modest through the next 7 days. ...Plains D3/Wed-D6/Sat... As the aforementioned troughing shifts eastward, several more prominent impulses will move over the Plains D3/Wed and D6/Sat. Strong lee cyclogenesis should accompany each of these upper-level troughs, bolstering surface winds (20-25 mph) over much of the Plains through the week and early weekend. However, ongoing moisture return will support only modestly low diurnal RH values, with widespread wetting rainfall also likely ahead of strong cold fronts associated with the deepening surface lows. This should temper area fuels, and casts significant uncertainty on the areal/temporal overlap of dry and windy conditions. While some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions is possible over parts of the southern and central High Plains, confidence remains too low to introduce probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more