SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the U.S. Thursday, with the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest, and a second that will cross Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes region through the period. Meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of the Pacific and across California early, and then continue eastward across the Four Corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the period -- emerge into the Plains. At the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central Appalachians and then off the New England coast by evening, while the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across the Southeast and Southern Plains through the period. Showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak convective activity will likely continue during the period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward. However, weak instability forecast across the region should substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. At this time, it appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving over the North Carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing hail. However, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter appears too small at this time to introduce a MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. ...Tennessee/Kentucky... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today, as an associated jet streak translates eastward through the central Plains. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. Surface dewpoints near the front should be in the 50s F, with instability remaining weak during the day due to abundant cloud cover. In spite of this, deep-layer shear will be strong, with a notable increase in shear taking place as the exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the Ohio Valley early this evening. RAP forecast soundings near the warm front from 00Z to 02Z/Thursday across southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee have MUCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates approaching 7 C/km. This environment could be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. However, a near-surface inversion is present on many of the forecast soundings along the warm front. This will likely be a negative factor for the severe threat, keeping any severe potential localized and marginal. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 02/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening across parts of north-central California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, a ridge is located in the central U.S. with a trough near the West Coast. Ahead of the trough, an area of widespread rainfall will continue to move inland across central and northern California this evening. Large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for isolated lightning strikes from near San Francisco eastward into the Sierras. No severe weather is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Feb 4 22:39:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Feb 4 22:39:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across the southern High Plains through the upcoming weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest that dry conditions will prevail across the southern High Plains for the next several days as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the south-central CONUS gradually breaks down. Periods of breezy conditions are anticipated as low-amplitude upper disturbances traverse the central Rockies through the late week/weekend period. Modest lee troughing will promote westerly downslope winds off the central/southern Rockies. The combination of dry air advection and downslope warming/drying will help maintain a dry air mass with daily RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. While localized elevated conditions appear possible each day during the D3/Thu through D5/Sat period, ensemble guidance suggests the strongest lee trough/cyclone will likely develop on D4/Fri afternoon across eastern CO, supporting a higher probability for achieving critical (20+ mph) winds across eastern NM and parts of western TX. A cold frontal passage on D6/Sun will usher in a cold continental air mass to much of the central/southern Plains, limiting further fire concerns heading into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough continues to approach the CA coastline, along with cooler temperatures aloft, which are poised to overspread a marginally warm and moist low-level airmass later this evening and tonight. A broad precipitation band, with embedded low-topped convection, is still expected to traverse central CA with the aforementioned cooler temperatures aloft, supporting scant buoyancy and the chance for a few lightning flashes. A couple of lightning flashes also cannot be ruled out over portions of the Intermountain West or the WA/OR coastline, as mid-level impulses pass over these regions later tonight. Even so, overall lack of buoyancy suggests that lightning flashes in these regions should remain too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude wave will quickly move out of the upper OH Valley and weaken as it moves into the Northeast. Behind this feature, a strong shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, a trough will drop south toward CA then move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies by Saturday morning. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, but a low-level moist plume will remain ahead of a cold front from KY into WV. Western parts of this front will stall as low pressure quickly moves from OH across southern New England. Rain and primarily elevated thunderstorms are expected from the OH valley eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, as westerly flow brings midlevel moisture eastward. However, drying will occur rapidly behind the shortwave trough. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A conditional risk of a few strong or severe storms exists over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee late Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will be situated over the Pacific Northwest, with an early disturbance lifting into MT with height rises over OR. Otherwise, a westerly flow regime will exist across the rest of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One such lead wave will move across the central Plains during the day, and will quickly move into the mid MS and lower OH valley during the evening and overnight. At the surface, high pressure will be strongest across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but another lobe of surface ridge will extend into the Southeast. Modest southerly low-level winds will maintain a moistening air mass from TX into the TN Valley, as a warm front lifts across TN and into KY. Overnight, a cold front associated with the midlevel wave will be near the OH River between 06-12Z, likely interacting with the moist plume. ...KY/TN/MS/AL... During the day, a few thunderstorms may develop within the deepening moist plume from northern MS/AL into Middle TN. This will occur with limited surface heating, and primarily in association with weak warm advection and moisture extending up through 700 mb. Midlevel lapse rates will not be very steep, and general thunderstorms appear most likely here. Overnight, as the midlevel wave and cold front approaches from the west, lift will interact with the low 60s F dewpoints and MLCAPE over 500 J/kg, with several thunderstorms possible. The main uncertainty for severe risk is regarding low-level lapse rates, however, shear will be strong with long hodographs and effective SRH possibly exceeding 400 m2/s2. As such, a conditional risk of a supercell or two will exist, including brief tornado risk as well as strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern/central California this afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central CA... Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. An associated surface cold front is also moving southeastward into northern CA, with an increasingly large shield of showers along/ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show the development of very weak CAPE later today, which could result in a few lightning flashes within the embedded precip shield. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Leitman.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance and morning observations continue to suggest that fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Desert Southwest, but the coverage/duration of elevated conditions should remain patchy with limited overlap with receptive fuels. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today. Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early tomorrow morning along the OR Coast. Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley, Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend. Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized. Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low -- initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity. Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Discussion... Largely zonal/westerly flow will continue across much of the U.S. once again Thursday, on the large scale. An embedded short-wave trough moving into/across the central Appalachians vicinity will continue moving quickly east-northeastward, moving across New England and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. As this occurs, the surface frontal wave moving along the entrenched east-to-west baroclinic zone will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, deepening through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the trailing surface front will remain aligned roughly east-to-west, from the Mid-Atlantic region to the southern Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Mid-Atlantic region, but will move offshore through the day. Farther west, the next short-wave feature aloft, embedded in the westerlies, will move across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners states. Scattered showers will accompany the progression of this feature, while isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will also occur farther east, across the Tennessee Valley later in the period, in the broad zone of weak warm advection persisting across this region. In all areas, convection should remain weak/disorganized. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft is forecast to intensify over the central US, while a deepening trough moves over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support gusty winds and periods of locally elevated fire-weather potential over parts of central NM and eastern AZ. ...Southwest... A backdoor cold front will move south over the Plains and into eastern NM early this morning associated with a weak lee low. The influx of cooler air and more moisture should moderate RH over the High Plains. To the west over the High country of central NM, periodic gusty winds and low humidity are still expected to overlap for several hours. Some localized fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and eastern AZ. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and sporadic receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across portions of the Mid South Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time. As this occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity... Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing mid-level wave. While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across the region for updraft organization. The lack of more substantial CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid evening. Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels locally. A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation. ..Goss.. 02/04/2025 Read more