SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley... A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening. Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs). However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025 Read more

MD 0058 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...south central into north central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300842Z - 301145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...In advance of an evolving line of storms along a cold front progressing across and east of the I-35 corridor of central Texas, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop through 4-6 AM CST. These may pose potential for producing small hail and a localized damaging gust or two. A brief tornado might not be out of the question. DISCUSSION...A warm elevated mixed-layer across and northeast of the San Antonio/Austin area has been suppressing convective development within a moist boundary-layer which has advected inland as far northwest as the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. Beneath the steeper mid-level lapse rates, forecast soundings indicate a deep moist surface-based layer (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 60s F), though one characterized by weak (generally moist adiabatic) lapse rates. Still, this is contributing to weak potential instability, in advance of what the latest Rapid Refresh indicates will become a strengthening, eastward advancing cold frontal surge across the Interstate 35 corridor by 10-12Z. It appears that strengthening low-level convergence and frontal forcing may contribute to an intensifying band of convection, aided by lift along and to the cool side (above) of the the surface front. This may coincide with an intensification of southerly pre-frontal low-level flow (including to 50+ kt around 850 mb). However, it appears that the strengthening flow will remain largely confined to the inflow layer, with forecast soundings indicating generally modest to weak westerly flow in the convective outflow and/or post-frontal environment. Of primary concern, their may be a window of opportunity for intensifying isolated to widely scattered discrete convective development, rooted closer to the surface, along the strengthening southerly 850 mb jet axis, where somewhat enlarged, clockwise curved low-level hodographs may evolve. This could support supercells with at least some potential for localized damaging surface gusts, or perhaps a brief tornado, before being overtaken by the frontal band of thunderstorms. ..Kerr/Smith.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30609867 31779769 32669699 32689553 31499616 29539711 29289812 29539878 30609867 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough shifts out of the eastern U.S. early Saturday, flow aloft will trend toward a low-amplitude, weakly cyclonic configuration in a broad sense, through Sunday morning. At the surface, frontolysis will occur over Florida as the remnant baroclinic zone dissipates, while high pressure prevails across the eastern states in its wake. In the West, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region later in the day and overnight, ahead of an upper system forecast to linger near coastal southwestern Canada. Showers, and possibly a couple of lightning flashes, will be possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain region in response to the aforementioned cold frontal advance, and associated upper system. Elsewhere, a shower or two -- and possibly a lightning flash -- may occur over coastal portions of eastern Florida near the decaying front. Overall however, lightning potential remains too low CONUS-wide to warrant inclusion of a 10% thunder area. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper low moving across the central U.S. early Friday is progged to devolve into an open wave, which will move quickly across the eastern half of the U.S. with time. By the end of the period, this feature will likely have reached the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a weak low will move across the Midwest and central Appalachians early in the period, and then should redevelop off the New England coast after sunset. A trailing cold front will cross the Southeast and Atlantic Coast states with time, moving offshore overnight and trailing only across the Florida Peninsula through the end of the period. ...Mouth of the Mississippi eastward to southwestern Georgia... Showers -- and possibly a few thunderstorms -- should be ongoing Friday morning, largely elevated above a weakly stable boundary layer. Weak heating through the morning and into early afternoon may support meager, nearly surface-based CAPE to gradually evolve. Given favorable background shear across the warm sector, a few stronger updrafts cannot be ruled out. Though the lack of more substantial instability should substantially hinder potential for severe weather, a few stronger gusts and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, diminishing into the evening as the front -- and associated convective band -- advance eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ..Goss.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 20:01:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 20:01:02 UTC 2025.