SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 30 22:11:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302117Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front, persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and scattered showers over the warm sector. Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front through this evening. Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics, with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221 31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176 34719118 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 30 19:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Gleason.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East-central TX into the lower MS Valley... A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening. Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs). However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/30/2025 Read more

MD 0058 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0058 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...south central into north central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300842Z - 301145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...In advance of an evolving line of storms along a cold front progressing across and east of the I-35 corridor of central Texas, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms may develop through 4-6 AM CST. These may pose potential for producing small hail and a localized damaging gust or two. A brief tornado might not be out of the question. DISCUSSION...A warm elevated mixed-layer across and northeast of the San Antonio/Austin area has been suppressing convective development within a moist boundary-layer which has advected inland as far northwest as the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. Beneath the steeper mid-level lapse rates, forecast soundings indicate a deep moist surface-based layer (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 60s F), though one characterized by weak (generally moist adiabatic) lapse rates. Still, this is contributing to weak potential instability, in advance of what the latest Rapid Refresh indicates will become a strengthening, eastward advancing cold frontal surge across the Interstate 35 corridor by 10-12Z. It appears that strengthening low-level convergence and frontal forcing may contribute to an intensifying band of convection, aided by lift along and to the cool side (above) of the the surface front. This may coincide with an intensification of southerly pre-frontal low-level flow (including to 50+ kt around 850 mb). However, it appears that the strengthening flow will remain largely confined to the inflow layer, with forecast soundings indicating generally modest to weak westerly flow in the convective outflow and/or post-frontal environment. Of primary concern, their may be a window of opportunity for intensifying isolated to widely scattered discrete convective development, rooted closer to the surface, along the strengthening southerly 850 mb jet axis, where somewhat enlarged, clockwise curved low-level hodographs may evolve. This could support supercells with at least some potential for localized damaging surface gusts, or perhaps a brief tornado, before being overtaken by the frontal band of thunderstorms. ..Kerr/Smith.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30609867 31779769 32669699 32689553 31499616 29539711 29289812 29539878 30609867 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement into Day 6, with some differences emerging at that point -- and continuing through the end of the period -- with respect to progression of small-scale, short-wave troughing moving through the prevailing westerlies aloft. During the days 4-5 time frame (Sunday and Monday), upper short-wave troughing is forecast to move across southern Canada and the Great Lakes region, and eventually the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and into the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, and an associated surface low likewise shifts eastward, a cold front will progress eastward across the Northeast, while sagging southward across the central Plains/Midwest. The front will eventually decelerate into the southern Plains and Southeast states by Day 6 (Tuesday). Through Day 5, severe weather is not expected. Day 6, potential for elevated convection -- north of the aforementioned baroclinic zone -- will become possible, modulated by the passage of disturbances embedded in the upper westerlies. While models differ on timing and intensity of these disturbances, it is conceivable that marginal hail potential could occur at some point through latter stages of the period. At this time, risk appears low, and too uncertain to highlight given the subtle/weak nature of the features embedded in the background low-amplitude flow field. Read more