SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A wildfire outbreak is possible across portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS on Day 3/Friday -- where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. Thereafter, a very active fire-weather pattern will continue across portions of the southern and central Plains through the extended forecast period. ...Day 3/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... A powerful, negative-tilt midlevel shortwave trough will move northeastward from the southern Rockies/High Plains to the Midwest on Day 3/Friday. Within the base of the trough, a 120+ kt midlevel southwesterly jet streak will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across the southern and central Plains. At the same time, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains, resulting in a very tight pressure gradient behind a related dryline across the region. These factors will yield an expansive area of 30+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) and lower teens RH -- favoring extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, the best alignment of these volatile meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to extend from portions of western North TX northeastward across central OK into far southeast KS -- where a wildfire outbreak will be possible. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern Plains... Behind the aforementioned synoptic system, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will overspread a warm/dry post-frontal air mass across the southern Plains. As a result, very strong west-northwesterly surface winds will develop amid low RH, and critical (potentially high-end) fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. ...Days 6-8/Monday-Wednesday - Southern and Central Plains... The next large-scale trough will move eastward across the West during this time frame, supporting lee cyclogenesis and dry/windy conditions across portions of the southern and central Plains each day. Despite differences in timing of the midlevel trough among medium-range guidance, the overall pattern will favor a continuation of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Day 6/Monday and Day 7/Tuesday, and these probabilities may need to be adjusted/expanded in future outlooks as medium-range guidance comes into better agreement. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains valid with minor changes including: adjustment of the MRGL/SLGT areas farther south and trimming of thunder eastward near the dryline across North TX. ...ArkLaTex and southeastern OK... A compact shortwave trough, evident on moisture-channel/visible imagery, over parts of west-central TX is forecast to continue eastward this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Ascent and cooler mid-level temperatures are overspreading a moistening air mass across parts of eastern TX/OK and AR/LA, contributing to moderate destabilization. Capping should remain firm through most of the afternoon, but robust heating and increasing ascent over the dryline/surface trough should allow for isolated thunderstorm initiation late this afternoon/early evening from southeastern OK, to along and south of I-20. Low freezing levels, steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5-9 C/km) and 35-50 kt of effective shear will favor supercells with large to very large hail. Low-level shear is not overly robust, and given the high LCLs (~1500-1700 m AGL) the tornado threat appears lower. However a tornado or two will remain possible, especially across the southernmost risk areas where dewpoints in the low 60s F are more likely. Some CAM guidance shows upscale growth into a small bowing segment/cluster may occur over east TX through the ArkLaTex tonight. Should this occur, a risk for damaging winds may continue over the lower MS Valley overnight. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough with an attendant 70-90+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level jet will advance eastward across the southern Plains today. A related surface low should gradually consolidate over OK and likewise develop slowly eastward through the period. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of a dryline that will mix eastward across parts of central TX through late this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the mid 50s to low 60s. A pronounced cap evident on the 12Z FWD sounding will be slow to erode, and this will likely inhibit robust thunderstorms from developing until at least late afternoon (21Z or later). Even so, mid-level temperatures will cool through the day as the shortwave trough approaches, and steep lapse rates aloft in combination with daytime heating will also aid in the development of around 1000-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE across northeast TX/southeast OK ahead of the dryline. While low-level winds are expected to remain fairly modest, strengthening mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should support organized convection. While there is still some uncertainty regarding how warm/moist the boundary layer will become through heating, it seems likely that attempts at robust convective initiation will occur by late afternoon/early evening across north-central TX into southeast OK as convergence increases along/near the dryline. Any convection that can develop and persist will likely become supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail (perhaps up to 2-2.5 inch diameter). Amalgamation/upscale growth may occur with this activity through the evening across parts of the ArkLaTex, with some risk for damaging winds with any sustained cluster continuing eastward over the lower MS Valley overnight. The tornado threat remains less clear, with modest/shallow low-level moisture and generally weak low-level winds potentially limiting factors. Still, a chance for a tornado or two may exist with any sustained supercell this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens, especially in the ArkLaTex region. ...Coastal Southern California... Short-term guidance shows a low-topped band of convection will move across parts of coastal southern CA in advance of an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. While a strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for low severe probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Critical area was expanded both northward and eastward, where the latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts around 20 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent RH. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels here, the Critical highlights are warranted. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds, several tornadoes, and hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low associated with a powerful shortwave trough will deepen through the period, moving from NM at 12Z Friday to WI by 12Z Saturday. An associated intense midlevel speed max will pivot from OK at midday into the mid MS Valley by 00Z, then will lose intensity late as it approaches MI. Large-scale ascent will be maximized north of the midlevel jet roughly from the Ozarks and Ohio Valley northward. At the surface, low pressure (sub 980 mb) will deepen from KS into IA through evening, with a large expanse of southerly winds across the warm sector aiding northward moisture advection. Behind the primary wave, another system will be dig into northern MX and TX Saturday morning. This should maintain gradual height falls over the southeastern states through the period, despite being south of the initial system. ...Most of the area from the mid MO Valley into the TN Valley... A classic, progressive deep-layer cyclone will interact with a increasingly unstable air mass to produce widespread wind damage beginning near the KS/MO and OK/AR borders during early afternoon, and expanding northeast across much of MO, IA, IL, IN, western KY and parts of western TN through evening. Not only will extreme wind field favor damaging winds, but profiles will also favor supercells capable of fast-moving tornadoes, whether a broken line or in QLCS fashion along surging outflows. The steep lapse rates and rapid changes overall will also support strong tornado potential interspersed with the damaging wind area. Last, cells will also produce hail over northern areas where temperatures aloft are cold. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 12 17:58:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough with an attendant 70-90+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level jet will advance eastward across the southern Plains today. A related surface low should gradually consolidate over OK and likewise develop slowly eastward through the period. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of a dryline that will mix eastward across parts of central TX through late this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the mid 50s to low 60s. A pronounced cap evident on the 12Z FWD sounding will be slow to erode, and this will likely inhibit robust thunderstorms from developing until at least late afternoon (21Z or later). Even so, mid-level temperatures will cool through the day as the shortwave trough approaches, and steep lapse rates aloft in combination with daytime heating will also aid in the development of around 1000-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE across northeast TX/southeast OK ahead of the dryline. While low-level winds are expected to remain fairly modest, strengthening mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should support organized convection. While there is still some uncertainty regarding how warm/moist the boundary layer will become through heating, it seems likely that attempts at robust convective initiation will occur by late afternoon/early evening across north-central TX into southeast OK as convergence increases along/near the dryline. Any convection that can develop and persist will likely become supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail (perhaps up to 2-2.5 inch diameter). Amalgamation/upscale growth may occur with this activity through the evening across parts of the ArkLaTex, with some risk for damaging winds with any sustained cluster continuing eastward over the lower MS Valley overnight. The tornado threat remains less clear, with modest/shallow low-level moisture and generally weak low-level winds potentially limiting factors. Still, a chance for a tornado or two may exist with any sustained supercell this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens, especially in the ArkLaTex region. ...Coastal Southern California... Short-term guidance shows a low-topped band of convection will move across parts of coastal southern CA in advance of an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. While a strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over NM/Chihuahua quickly moving eastward into Far West and Southwest TX. This disturbance will reach the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast by early Thursday morning. A belt of strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow will move through the base of the trough over TX into the lower MS Valley during the period. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. ...Parts of TX/OK eastward into the Lower MS Valley... Surface analysis shows a plume of northward-moving moisture from a modifying Gulf airmass across TX near and to the east of I-35 this morning. An initially strong cap (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob) will inhibit storm development through the mid afternoon as southerly low-level moisture continues to stream northward into northeast TX and eastern OK/western AR. Moderate instability is forecast by mid-late afternoon due in part to cold-air advection in the mid-levels associated with the approaching trough. Upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast east of the dryline. Strong heating will likely lead to surface dewpoints mixing into the mid-upper 50s over north and northeast TX. Model guidance indicates scattered storms will likely develop once the cap erodes in parts of eastern OK southward into TX with this activity spreading east into adjacent portions of AR/LA this evening and eventually into the Ark-La-Miss late. Lower coverage of storms is forecast farther south across east-central into parts of east TX. However, stronger deep-layer shear with southward extent will favor supercell modes compared to a mix of strong/severe multicells and supercell structures farther north. Large to very large hail (potentially 2-3 inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms. An attendant wind risk will also accompany the stronger storms given the steep lapse rates. Upscale growth into one or two clusters is possible during the evening as this activity moves east into the lower MS Valley. ...Elsewhere... Short-term model guidance indicates a very low-topped forced band will move southeast across parts of the southern CA coast in advance of an approaching eastern Pacific mid-level trough. A strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, but the risk appears too marginal for low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/SAT... ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sat - Central Gulf Coast States to the Ohio Valley... A strong large-scale upper trough is forecast to quickly move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Saturday. An intense jet streak will move across the Deep South into the OH Valley as this occurs. At the surface, a low secondary to the 980 mb low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to develop during the late morning/early afternoon across the mid-South. This will aid in further northward transport of rich Gulf moisture into portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valleys. Atop this moisture-primed boundary layer, cold 500 mb temperatures are forecast. This may support fairly steep lapse rates, which would foster moderate instability across portions of MS/AL amid supercell wind profiles. However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight. Trends will be monitored closely over the coming days and further adjustments to the 30 percent/Enhanced risk area may be needed in future outlooks. With northward extent, instability will become more limited. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture amid intense deep-layer flow will support swaths of strong/damaging winds into the Ohio Valley and portions of the central Appalachians Saturday and Saturday night. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases. ...Day 5/Sun - North Florida into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A strong upper trough will shift east across the Midwest and Southeast on Sunday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. atop a moist boundary layer. Bands of convection will likely produce swaths of strong to severe gusts ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... An upper trough will move offshore over the Atlantic on Monday, while a broad upper ridge spreads across the Plains in its wake. Another large-scale upper trough will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday, ejecting across the Plains and into the MS Valley on Wednesday. Some severe potential could return to parts of the central or south-central states toward the end of the period with this system, but current model forecasts suggest moisture return in the wake of the Day 4/5 system will remain poor. Trends will be monitored over the coming days. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. All severe hazards are possible, including swaths of intense winds and tornadoes. ...MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A large cyclone will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. A 100+ kt southwesterly jet streak at 500 mb will overspread portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, while a 60-70 kt low-level jet overspreads much the Mid-South and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Northward extent of deeper Gulf moisture (60s F dewpoints) will likely remain south of southeast MO/southern IL/western KY, with more modest 50s F dewpoints expanding northward into southeast MN/southern WI and eastward toward the Lower OH Valley. Despite the more modest moisture across the northern half of the outlook area, cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and at least weak instability. A strongly forced QLCS is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Intense forcing and deep-layer wind fields will maintain an organized QLCS into the nighttime hours. Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the QLCS will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible. Convection may develop later across AR into the TN Valley/Deep South. However, deeper Gulf moisture will be in place across this region (possible mid/upper 60s F). This will support stronger instability amid supercell wind profiles. Large-scale ascent will be more subtle across this area, but sharpening of the dryline across AR and low-level confluence should support convective development during the evening. Initial supercells may grow upscale into a line moving across portions of AR/TN/northern MS/AL. An attendant risk of strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging/potentially significant wind gusts is expected across the Mid-South with this activity. A more conditional risk for overnight supercells exists across parts northern/central MS/AL. The environment could support intense supercells capable of producing large hail and strong tornadoes this far south, but forcing mechanisms will be weak. Trends will be monitored and future outlook adjustments may be needed. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent, rapidly progressing upper trough will traverse the southwestern CONUS and impinge on the Plains states tomorrow (Thursday), supporting rapid surface low development across the central High Plains. Strong, dry downslope flow across the High Plains amid drying fuels will support significant wildfire-spread potential, particularly over locations that have not experienced recent appreciable precipitation. By mid afternoon, south-southwesterly surface winds will sustain in the 20-25 mph range as RH falls to 15-20 percent, supporting a long axis of Elevated to Critical conditions from Far West Texas to central Nebraska. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Southeast... An upper shortwave trough will move over the Southeast and offshore the Atlantic coast through Thursday evening. The bulk of the mid/upper jet streak associated with the trough will remain focused over the Gulf. However, increasing northwesterly flow above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Meanwhile, elongated/straight hodographs are noted in forecast soundings. Cool temperatures aloft steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values to around 750-1200 J/kg. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, generally in the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F. Furthermore, a lack of surface boundaries to focus thunderstorm initiation may limit storm coverage. Nevertheless, a few storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning across northern MS. This activity may continue to propagate southeast into the afternoon. Additional storms will develop during the afternoon aided by heating into the 70s F. A few organized cells capable of severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. Some consideration for a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) was give, mainly across southern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle where somewhat better low-level moisture is forecast. However, a lack of stronger forcing and uncertainty regarding storm cover precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more