SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC MD 2275
MD 2275 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241947Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in convective intensity is anticipated through the afternoon and early evening hours across central Texas. Sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in the short-term (next 1-3 hours) with watch issuance possible later this afternoon as the severe threat becomes more robust towards the TX Coastal Plain. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection has been slowly developing along a southeastward-moving cold front across northern to central TX. Modest destabilization and unfavorable storm mode/morphology have modulated convective intensities so far with only 0.25 to 0.5 inch hail reported via mPING. Broken cloud cover ahead of the front has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s, which is promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg across central TX. New convective towers/cells are developing to the southwest along the front into this more buoyant air mass, which should favor more intense convection compared to what's been observed in recent hours. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the front will promote upscale growth into a line with time, but prior to this occurring a few more intense cells may pose a large hail risk, possibly as large as 1.0-1.5 inch. Convective intensity is expected to gradually increase through the late afternoon and evening amid continued diurnal heating and northward moisture flux. Watch issuance may eventually be needed this afternoon as convection intensifies, though timing remains uncertain. ..Moore/Hart.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32329728 32739679 32959636 33089601 33059570 32929554 32739547 32499545 32249550 32019567 31829597 31569654 31349708 31119764 31019809 30999845 31109867 31189879 31299882 31459877 31659836 31869796 32089758 32329728 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 2275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241947Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in convective intensity is anticipated through the afternoon and early evening hours across central Texas. Sporadic large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in the short-term (next 1-3 hours) with watch issuance possible later this afternoon as the severe threat becomes more robust towards the TX Coastal Plain. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection has been slowly developing along a southeastward-moving cold front across northern to central TX. Modest destabilization and unfavorable storm mode/morphology have modulated convective intensities so far with only 0.25 to 0.5 inch hail reported via mPING. Broken cloud cover ahead of the front has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s, which is promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg across central TX. New convective towers/cells are developing to the southwest along the front into this more buoyant air mass, which should favor more intense convection compared to what's been observed in recent hours. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the front will promote upscale growth into a line with time, but prior to this occurring a few more intense cells may pose a large hail risk, possibly as large as 1.0-1.5 inch. Convective intensity is expected to gradually increase through the late afternoon and evening amid continued diurnal heating and northward moisture flux. Watch issuance may eventually be needed this afternoon as convection intensifies, though timing remains uncertain. ..Moore/Hart.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32329728 32739679 32959636 33089601 33059570 32929554 32739547 32499545 32249550 32019567 31829597 31569654 31349708 31119764 31019809 30999845 31109867 31189879 31299882 31459877 31659836 31869796 32089758 32329728 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further, this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High Plains by Thursday morning. ...Southern Louisiana... Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front. While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE) suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where buoyancy could be locally greater. ...West/Northwest Texas... Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be possible with this activity. ...Pacific Northwest/northern California... With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough initially along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast region will continue to move east on Wednesday. Model trends continue to show this feature weakening through the day. Further, this trough has also trended slightly southward in placement over the past few model cycles. A secondary, stronger shortwave trough will move through the Four Corners and reach the southern High Plains by Thursday morning. ...Southern Louisiana... Current observations within the Gulf show low 60s F dewpoints offshore. Given the forecast location of the lead shortwave and weakening mass fields during the day, these dewpoints appear more likely to remain generally offshore, south of a weak warm front. While a few thunderstorms appear probable during the afternoon near the boundary, very minimal buoyancy (100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE) suggests the potential for severe storms will remain low. Marginally stronger storms could occur in far southeast Louisiana, where buoyancy could be locally greater. ...West/Northwest Texas... Forcing for ascent will increase towards Thursday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen sufficiently to support a few stronger elevated convective cores. A few isolated lightning flashes will be possible with this activity. ...Pacific Northwest/northern California... With the approach of another shortwave trough late Wednesday night/early Thursday, mid-level height falls/cooling will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastline. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... High pressure and associated weak surface winds will limit fire-weather concerns from the Rockies eastward. Farther west, fire-weather potential will also be minimal, as precipitation overspreads the Great Basin ahead of an amplified midlevel trough. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST...AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible late this afternoon into the overnight. ...Central and eastern TX... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper trough digging southeastward over the southern High Plains. This upper feature is expected to reach eastern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, morning analysis indicates an inverted trough extending from central TX northeastward into the Arklatex. A cold front over north TX extending southwestward into west-central TX will gradually move southeastward during the period and become a focus for showers/storms. Southeasterly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain an adequately moist fetch from the western Gulf (upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints). Some heating during the day and mid-level cold-air advection will likely yield moderate destabilization (750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from near I-20 in northeast TX southwestward into the TX Triangle. The relatively cold mid levels will promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts that maintain a cellular mode, but a transition to linear is expected given the frontal forcing and modest high-level flow promoting updraft seeding from adjacent storm activity by early evening. A locally higher risk for large hail may ultimately focus near the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward through Waco. A gradual emphasis towards damaging wind potential is expected during the evening/overnight as storm coverage increases coincident with a more pervasive linear mode. Elsewhere, a progressive and powerful upper trough will move from the eastern Pacific and into the UT/AZ vicinity by late tonight. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may occur in association with cold mid-level temperatures overspreading CA into the southern Great Basin. Scant instability will tend to limit storm vigor and overall coverage of thunderstorm activity. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/24/2024 Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected across East Texas and the Deep South for Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5. On Friday/Day 4, a secondary shortwave trough may evolve across the southern Plains in the wake of the shortwave trough related to Thursday's/Day 3 severe potential. While some severe storms could occur across east/southeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex on Friday/Day 4, details of available buoyancy are uncertain, especially given the short periodicity between these mid-level systems. Similarly, a severe storm risk could shift eastward toward the Lower Mississippi/Mid-South on Saturday/Day 5, but confidence in 15+ percent probabilities is currently limited. Severe storm potential is then expected to be relatively low into Days 6-8 Sunday-Tuesday. Read more
SPC Dec 24, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into far western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to shift east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across North Texas toward the ArkLaTex, with an increasingly moist airmass across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon. Current impressions are that a surface-based severe risk should increase into Thursday midday and early afternoon across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but perhaps more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected, contributing to upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could occur. Particularly for east/southeast Texas, strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 40-50 kt effective shear and 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells, including related damaging wind and tornado potential. Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/24/2024 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into far western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to shift east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across North Texas toward the ArkLaTex, with an increasingly moist airmass across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon. Current impressions are that a surface-based severe risk should increase into Thursday midday and early afternoon across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but perhaps more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected, contributing to upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could occur. Particularly for east/southeast Texas, strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 40-50 kt effective shear and 150-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells, including related damaging wind and tornado potential. Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity. ..Guyer.. 12/24/2024 Read more
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