SPC Feb 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, it appears that there will be little change across much of the contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into central tier states. Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity into Northeast by late Saturday night. It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. This is likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Initially stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic, the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of the wave. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains problematic concerning convective potential. Strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather potential, given sufficient destabilization. However, regardless of the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress destabilization. At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing lightning. But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible at this time. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, it appears that there will be little change across much of the contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into central tier states. Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity into Northeast by late Saturday night. It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. This is likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Initially stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic, the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of the wave. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains problematic concerning convective potential. Strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather potential, given sufficient destabilization. However, regardless of the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress destabilization. At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing lightning. But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible at this time. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more
