SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the forecast to reflect the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. ..Hart/Jirak.. 02/06/2025 Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...southern and eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 061312Z - 061445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for a few supercells capable of all severe weather hazards continues. DISCUSSION...The line of storms earlier this morning across central Kentucky has become less defined through time with a few more dominant supercells in a now broken line from east-central Kentucky to south-central Kentucky. The strongest of these supercells is moving through Jackson County as of 13Z with a somewhat tight 40 knot vRot sampled by the KJKL WSR-88D. Instability has already started to wane across the region which should eventually weaken these storms. However, in the meantime, a tornado threat may persist given the presence of a mature, long-lived, rotating updraft amid strong low-level shear (200 to 250 m2/s2 0-1km SRH). Per collaboration with WFO JKL, tornado watch 3 has been expanded across all of eastern Kentucky to cover the threat from these ongoing storms. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36948629 37648429 37978332 37968285 37858267 37598263 37308292 36828361 36618395 36598420 36598554 36948629 Read more

WW 0003 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HOP TO 15 E BWG TO 25 NW LOZ TO 15 W JKL TO 35 SSW HTS. ..BENTLEY..02/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 3 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-013-025-051-053-057-071-095-109-115-119-121-125- 133-141-147-153-159-169-171-189-193-195-199-203-207-213-227-231- 235-061440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BELL BREATHITT CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LETCHER LOGAN MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN METCALFE MONROE OWSLEY PERRY PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SIMPSON WARREN WAYNE WHITLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 3 TORNADO KY 061110Z - 061600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Kentucky * Effective this Thursday morning from 510 AM until 1000 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is currently moving across central Kentucky. This line has intensified over the past hour and environmental conditions are expected to remain supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing brief tornadoes, strong gusts, and isolated small hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Bowling Green KY to 40 miles west northwest of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...TN Valley into the Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from western WV into south-central KY, along a weak cold front progressing eastward across the region. The warm sector ahead of this front is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints in the low 60s, and modest buoyancy. Strong vertical shear exists across this region as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear values around 50-55 kt. Notable low-level curvature exists over the region as well, supported by strong low-level flow (i.e. 850 mb flow over 50 kt). These environmental conditions are supporting occasional updraft organization with the convective line, with a resulting potential for a few brief tornadoes as well as strong gusts and small hail. Shortwave trough responsible for the cold front as well as the strong low-level flow will continue to lift northeastward towards the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians this morning. Resultant weakening of the large-scale ascent and low-level shear will likely lead to a weakening of this convective line by the late morning. The cold front is expected to continue gradually southward, and by the early afternoon will likely extend from far western VA west-southwestward across northern TN into northern AR. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the region, contributing to another round of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front. Thunderstorms are possible on both sides of the cold front, with greater storm coverage likely north of the boundary where large-scale ascent will be strongest. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support hail within a few of these elevated storms. Potential for surface-based storms will exist south of the boundary, with the degree of buoyancy modulated by how much heating is realized. Current guidance suggests temperatures could reach the low 70s, which would result in MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop by late afternoon, centered on the western/middle TN vicinity. Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as it moves across TN and into far western NC by early evening. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The zonal flow aloft which has persisted over the U.S. recently -- and into the start of the medium-range period -- is progged to gradually amplify, with flow becoming more cyclonic with time across the U.S. through the period. The initial effect of this gradual upper flow field evolution will be to gradually suppress the persistent west-to-east surface front over the U.S. southward. Through day 5 (Monday), this front should extend from Texas eastward through the Gulf Coast States to Georgia/South Carolina. Severe weather is not expected, as this front drifts southward and settles across this area. Through the second half of the period (late day 6 onward), disturbances moving across the southern U.S. within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft will influence potential for surface wave development along the front. Any appreciable cyclogenesis could result in northward transport of higher theta-e Gulf air, and thus some destabilization ahead of the low. With strong flow aloft atop the surface front, this would suggest an environment that would support severe-weather potential. With that said, while a general/overall increase in severe-weather probabilities over the Gulf Coast region is becoming evident during the second half of the period, uncertainty remains high. Timing and degree of any such risk will depend upon subtle features aloft, and their effects on surface mass response. And given predictability issues with respect to timing an intensity of such subtle features, it appears premature at this time to introduce 15% risk areas in the day 7 to 8 time frame. Read more

MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...WESTERN NEW JERSEY...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...northern Maryland...northern Delaware...western New Jersey...and southwestern New York. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 060900Z - 061400Z SUMMARY...A mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and snow is expected this morning across portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. DISCUSSION...A progressive shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet streak are moving through the Ohio Valley this morning. Ahead of this trough, widespread stratiform rain, with some embedded convection, has developed within a region of dCVA and strong isentropic ascent. Expect this region of freezing rain, sleet, and snow to expand further this morning as ascent increases with an expanding/strengthening low-level jet. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper 20s across much of Pennsylvania and surrounding areas. These well-below freezing temperatures, combined with sustained 10 mph winds, create an environment favorable for ice accretion this morning from Lake Erie to the Atlantic Ocean near New Jersey/Delaware. Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing across Delaware and New Jersey by daybreak as strengthening low-level southeasterly flow off the Gulf stream progresses inland. Isolated pockets of freezing rain, correlated with terrain, exist farther south across Virginia, but will eventually erode as warmer air advects into the region. ..Bentley.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42158037 42457948 42867907 42867784 42087593 41397507 40447475 40147457 39567440 39257483 39407644 39417724 39527801 39867893 40517967 42158037 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the U.S. on Saturday. ...Discussion... The quasi-zonal flow field aloft which has prevailed recently will remain in place across most of the U.S. on Saturday. A couple of low-amplitude short-wave troughs will progress through the westerlies -- a lead feature initially over the northern and central Plains, and a second over the Pacific Northwest. The lead feature will permit a weak frontal wave -- initially over the Oklahoma/Missouri vicinity -- to shift eastward along the surface front with time, crossing the Ozarks and Ohio Valley region through the day, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight. Potential for thunder appears low across the U.S. through the period. A lightning flash or two could occur over the Pacific Northwest vicinity early, as the upper trough crosses the area. A few showers are expected across the central Appalachians vicinity, in a zone of warm advection ahead of the approaching surface low, but lack of instability should preclude lightning. Elsewhere, aside from a few showers and possibly a lightning flash near/off the Carolina Coast, and likewise across the South Florida/Keys vicinity, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM... ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal, mid-level flow is forecast to continue across the central and western US today and tonight. Embedded within the westerly flow, several weak perturbations will cross the Rockies enhancing a lee trough over the High Plains. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are again expected across parts of eastern AZ and NM today as strong westerly flow continues over the Rockies. Several embedded mid-level perturbations will help strengthen lee troughing, and the resulting west/southwesterly surface winds to 15-25 mph. The strong downslope winds, along with warm temperatures and days of low humidity will support afternoon RH values of 10-15%. Given the favorable overlap of strong winds, low humidity and ongoing drought, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions also appear possible within areas of stronger terrain-enhanced wind gusts. However, confidence in widespread critical conditions is relatively low. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana and much of north-central Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 060243Z - 060845Z SUMMARY...Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain showers are expected to increase in coverage/intensity through tonight. Periods of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are possible. DISCUSSION...Evening upper air/surface analysis showed a broad warm air advection regime was strengthening ahead of a low amplitude upper trough and warm front over portions of the middle OH Valley. North of the surface front, temperatures are near or just below freezing with several areas of light to occasionally moderate precipitation. Over the last couple of hours, area surface stations have observed a mosaic of freezing drizzle, snow/ice pellets and light freezing rain showers as the initial onset of stronger warm air advection. Thus far, intermittent freezing rain rates have been light, generally below 0.02 in/hr. However, recent radar trends show an increase in deeper convective cores (some with lightning) and moderate stratiform developing over east-central IN and far western OH. This intensification trend is expected to continue as large-scale ascent from an approaching shortwave trough should bolster low-level warm advection (850-700 mb temps of 4-6 C) through the overnight hours. Continued large-scale ascent, in combination with weak elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE) will support more widespread and heavier precipitation across portions of eastern IN and north-central OH. Moderate to locally heavy freezing rain, with rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible, especially with the heavier convective elements. Freezing rain concerns are highest primarily across north-central OH where surface temperatures are below 30 F and accretion will be most efficient. However, some icing is possible over much of central/southern OH where surface temperatures are more marginal. Given the expected increase in icing, travel disruptions are possible. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073 40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575 Read more

MD 0065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060608Z - 060815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing weak destabilization within the warm air advection regime over the TN/KY border region could support surface-based storms and a risk for hail, damaging winds, or a tornado overnight. A WW is possible, but it remains unclear if one is needed. DISCUSSION...As of 0600 UTC, regional observations show weak, but likely surface-based, destabilization is ongoing over parts of the central MS River Valley and TN/KY border region. Large-scale ascent ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Midwest is supporting persistent low-level warm air advection over much of the Mid south. Widespread predominately elevated convection, is ongoing north of the surface warm front over the OH Valley. While to the south, surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s F were advecting into western TN beneath fairly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Sufficient to offset nocturnal stabilization, continued low-level theta-E advection is supporting weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Surface-based storm development appears possible along and south of the frontal zone over north-central TN and far southern KY, and farther west along a cold front. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells or short bowing segments capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Current observational trends and recent HRRR guidance show a gradual increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. It remains unclear how much of the convection will remain surface-based along and south of the front. However, with strong shear and sufficient moisture/buoyancy in place, the severe risk could warrant a WW and conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36898890 37278723 37558528 37628350 37108263 36218301 35978361 35688706 35688817 35818894 36898890 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KY TO FAR NORTHERN TN... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadic storms, along with isolated damaging winds and large hail, will be possible overnight into early morning Thursday across parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. ...KY/TN... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Mid/Lower MO Valley will progress east across parts of the Midwest tonight. Strong tropospheric flow attendant to this wave will overspread the northern periphery of a warm-moist sector advancing north from the TN Valley. This will induce weak cyclogenesis overnight within the pronounced baroclinic zone. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen later this evening, with mainly elevated convection occurring north-northeast of the surface front. Still, some potential will exist for near surface-based storms across the baroclinic zone, along with a couple supercells. A separate band of broken convection may form in the early morning as a cold front emerges near the developing surface cyclone. Enlarged low-level hodographs, coupled with pronounced elongation in the mid/upper levels, could foster a couple sustained surface-based supercells within this regime across parts of southern to central KY and far northern TN. The categorical risk has been increased to a level 2-SLGT for the overnight/early-morning tornado potential. ..Grams.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the southern High Plains though the extended period, though confidence in fire weather potential diminishes beyond this weekend. Long-range ensemble solutions show reasonably good agreement in a shift from a ridge-dominated upper-level regime to a more progressive regime by early next week. This transition will feature several low-amplitude upper troughs propagating across the CONUS, each with attendant chances for precipitation. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest that most regions will see at least some accumulating rain/snow potential through the middle of next week with the exception of the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains. Recent fuel drying across these regions will likely be exacerbated by the limited rain/snowfall potential through next week. Breezy conditions may emerge across parts of the southern High Plains each day as lee troughing develops with the passage of upper disturbances over the central Rockies. D3/Friday continues to see the best signal for 20+ mph winds per GEFS/ECENS probabilities with weaker signals noted over the weekend and into early next week - likely the result of a cold frontal intrusion that is expected on D4/Sat into D5/Sun. The dry air mass already in place across the southern High Plains will likely remain entrenched over the region and foster daily RH reductions into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable on D3/Friday, though more localized/transient concerns may emerge across southern NM and far west TX over the weekend and into early next week. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more