WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S FLO TO 5 ENE SOP TO 20 SE DAN. ..SPC..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...MHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 90 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093-101-105- 107-117-125-127-135-145-147-155-163-165-181-183-185-191-195- 010040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH ORANGE PERSON PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC033-041-043-051-067-089-010040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN Read more

WW 90 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 312005Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Southern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters and a linear band of thunderstorms will move east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will pose primarily a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC to 40 miles southeast of Florence SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

MD 0330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Northern Virginia into central Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania...and northwest New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311933Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected within the next couple of hours across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The convective environment should support a damaging wind threat into the evening hours. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, GOES visible imagery has shown a gradual increase in agitated cumulus within a deepening trough axis in the lee of the central Appalachians. Steady diurnal heating under broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance, which suggests that thunderstorm initiation should become increasingly probable in the next couple of hours. Buoyancy on the northern periphery of returning moisture appears to be meager due to somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates and overall low quality moisture. This will modulate updraft intensities to some degree, but strong speed shear noted in upstream VWPs should help promote longevity of initially semi-discrete cells. Mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the lee trough axis will likely promote upscale growth with time and perhaps an increasing damaging wind threat as cold pools amalgamate within an environment featuring low-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when thunderstorm development becomes more imminent and storm coverage becomes sufficient for a more widespread threat across the region. ..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39367618 38907719 38397825 38347865 38507884 38687899 38917900 39237878 39507844 39777794 41307567 41467502 41267454 40897427 40457437 39967509 39367618 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VDI TO 20 NW VDI TO 10 S AGS TO 30 W CAE TO 20 ESE SPA TO 10 WSW HKY. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-209-245-271-279-283-309-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL MONTGOMERY RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-312140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC003-011-021-023-039-057-063-071-079-087-091-312140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHEROKEE Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VDI TO 20 NW VDI TO 10 S AGS TO 30 W CAE TO 20 ESE SPA TO 10 WSW HKY. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-209-245-271-279-283-309-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL MONTGOMERY RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-312140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC003-011-021-023-039-057-063-071-079-087-091-312140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHEROKEE Read more

WW 87 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC 311530Z - 312300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Georgia Western North Carolina Western and Central South Carolina * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1130 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move into the Watch area with the primary hazard being damaging straight-line winds within bowing portions of the line. A brief tornado is also possible if a stronger embedded circulation in the squall line can develop. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Greenville SC to 55 miles south southwest of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85...WW 86... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 30 NE MGR. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ735-755-312140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 30 NE MGR. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ735-755-312140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 311550Z - 312200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move into the Watch from the west and a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-65 mph) may accompany more intense portions of the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Panama City FL to 25 miles south of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-065-067-079-089-121-123-312140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-075- 101-103-109-127-155-161-165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-299- 305-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE COOK ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN IRWIN JEFF DAVIS JENKINS LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH Read more

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 311915Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southern and Southeast Georgia Southern into Central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east into the Watch area this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are the primary hazard and will mainly focus with the stronger surges and inflections within the thunderstorm band. A brief tornado is possible with a stronger mesovortex or embedded circulation within the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Orangeburg SC to 65 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VDI TO 20 NW VDI TO 10 S AGS TO 30 W CAE TO 20 ESE SPA TO 10 WSW HKY. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-209-245-271-279-283-309-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL MONTGOMERY RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-312140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC003-011-021-023-039-057-063-071-079-087-091-312140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHEROKEE Read more

WW 90 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 312005Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Southern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters and a linear band of thunderstorms will move east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will pose primarily a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC to 40 miles southeast of Florence SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more