SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across much of the Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s F will contribute to weak destabilization. A relatively large complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move across this moist airmass during the day. A few of the storms could produce isolated severe gusts, but any severe threat is expected to be marginal due to the limited instability. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to very weak instability. ...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening. Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north, suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to very weak instability. ...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening. Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north, suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong trough will progress into the Mississippi Valley. Flow across the West will become broadly cyclonic with the strongest flow remaining roughly parallel to the California coast. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal as dry and windy conditions will remain removed from the driest fuels. With the strong flow along the California coast and low-level ridging extending north of the Transverse Ranges, some stronger downslope winds are possible. RH reductions in the immediate lee of the terrain could near 20% briefly. Locally elevated conditions may occur Monday afternoon along the Santa Barbara Coast. Offshore flow in other portions of southern California will increase towards Tuesday morning. RH reductions do not appear sufficient for elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong trough will progress into the Mississippi Valley. Flow across the West will become broadly cyclonic with the strongest flow remaining roughly parallel to the California coast. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal as dry and windy conditions will remain removed from the driest fuels. With the strong flow along the California coast and low-level ridging extending north of the Transverse Ranges, some stronger downslope winds are possible. RH reductions in the immediate lee of the terrain could near 20% briefly. Locally elevated conditions may occur Monday afternoon along the Santa Barbara Coast. Offshore flow in other portions of southern California will increase towards Tuesday morning. RH reductions do not appear sufficient for elevated conditions. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ..Wendt.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity... A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday. Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the 03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms overnight into early Monday. While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts. Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases, 0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK. At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further south. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm advection. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 16 21:05:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 16 21:05:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to become more consolidated to the southern California coast through the extended period as a strong upper-level trough brings widespread rain chances to much of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the amplification and ejection of the upper wave currently over the lower CO River Valley late this weekend into early next week. In the wake of this system, upper ridging is expected over the western CONUS by mid-week, but the amplification of this ridge remains somewhat uncertain with spread noted in latest ensemble guidance and cluster analyses. Predictability in the synoptic regime degrades beyond D6/Friday into next weekend, but there are some indications of widespread precipitation chances across the West and cool, continental air intrusions into the northern/central Plains. Regardless, the driest conditions through the extended period should reside across southern CA into the southern Great Basin, which will maintain the dry fuels in place along the southern CA coast. ...D4/Tue to D5/Wed - southern California Coast... An offshore flow regime remains likely beginning early D4/Tue and persisting into late D5/Wed along the southern CA coast. A building surface high is anticipated over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of Sun/Mon's trough ejection into the Plains. Long-range ensemble guidance appear to be consolidating around solutions that depict a 1030-1035 mb surface high, which, while still unseasonably strong (75th-90th percentile range for mid-November), would support only a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Deterministic solutions suggest wind speeds should exceed elevated thresholds, and may reach critical thresholds for more localized areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Despite pockets of light rain over the past 24-48 hours, ERCs should rebound amid the dry conditions through early next week. Higher risk probabilities appear uncertain at this time, but the 40% risk areas are maintained to address the potential fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed. ..Smith.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ...Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ...Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The Elevated fire weather risk area across parts of New England has been maintained for this update despite recent high-res guidance suggesting wind speeds will be considerably weaker compared to today (Saturday) during peak heating. The risk area has been spatially reduced to highlight areas where ensemble guidance shows the best signal for RH values near 20% (namely portions of far southern NY, CT, and northern NJ). This region should also see the deepest boundary-layer mixing and the best potential for occasional gusts up to 15 mph. Additionally, fuels remain critically dry and should support some fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough departs the Northeast, shortwave ridging will build in on Sunday. Across southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic, models indicate the potential for RH in the 20-30% range during the afternoon. Winds will be strongest during the morning, but this will also be offset from the lowest RH. Locally elevated to perhaps elevated conditions remain possible, though such conditions may be very brief. Very dry fuels will support fire spread where the dry and windy conditions align most favorably. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024 Read more